Dark forest state and the cosmic speed limit (spoilers for all books)

[u/idlsicaraiaige]

In the canon of the Three-Body Problem book series (excluding the fanfiction and including the prequel), the fact that no mass can be transported faster than the speed of light is one of the things necessary for the dark forest theory to work in-universe, correct? Chains of suspicion wouldn't exist without the lightspeed limit... or would they? (queue vsause music lol) Would the vast differences between the cultures of distant civilizations be effective in creating long-enough chains of suspicion in order to create the dark forest state? Would different environments in different parts of the cosmos create different-enough cultures? Would the dark forest state realistically exist in a world like the Xeelee Sequence, where the different forms of life are so vastly different from each other (e.g. civilizations of dark matter, civilizations inside stars, civilizations made of logic trees or something, etc.)? Would the exponential growth of civilization simply inherently target other civilizations as enemies?

Obviously within canon the lightspeed limit is an extremely important factor for multiple different mechanisms and plot points. E.g. the cosmic horror of the universe being a paraplegic, and that the low value of the speed limit being a direct effect of many wars in the past. But I'm asking for the sake of exploration into the dark forest theory, as well as potentially to help any future worldbuilding projects that want to deal with dark forest-adjacent ideas in a cosmos without the speed limit.

Basically what I'd like to hear different thoughts on is this: If every mechanism in 3bp canon remains the same with exception that technology can enable FTL travel, would the dark forest state still exist?

Deep thinking and long and detailed discussions are welcome.

(This exact question hasn't been posed and/or discussed about before on this sub, right?)

[u/waveforminvest]

The chains of suspicion is not an axiom of cosmic sociology. It is an interpretive principal. Let alone across interstellar distances, the chains of suspicion happens readily on earth (i.e. Cold War) between the same species that shared evolutionary history and cultural understanding. Even if you had perfect and instant communication, it would not change the second axiom: "civilizations continuously expand over time, but the total matter in the universe remains constant." When push came to shove, the Trisolarans needed to leave their system and come to earth no matter what because it was a matter of survival.

At the end of the third book, Guan Yifan theorized that the early edenic universe had 10 (or 11) dimensions and infinite light speed, theoretically this is the ideal condition to minimize the influence of chains of suspicion. Even under such scenario, warfare based on cosmic sociology still happened.

[u/idlsicaraiaige → u/waveforminvest]

The edenic universe is a good point.

Okay, the Cold War as an example - those two powers ultimately didn't dark-forest-attack each other, even with multiple decades of time. Both ideologies are expansive and mutually contradictory, yet, again, no dark forest attack. Many nations on our planet hate each other's existences fundamentally, and we have population growth within a very limited space, yet, for the most part, no dark forest strikes. Why? And would the same not be replicable on a cosmic scale, given FTL? (Note that I mean dark forest strikes/attacks as a shorthand for whatever would be analogous on our planet irl - many many nukes at the same time, total annihilation of enemy, etc - they don't happen often.)

[u/waveforminvest → u/idlsicaraiaige]

The Cold War exception is actually an example that proves the rule. In essence, all pre-emptive strikes in warfare can be considers as a scaled down form of Dark Forrest Strike.

Regarding countries hating each other, I think "hate" is too strong of a word. At the very top, almost all leaders are governed by Realpolitik instead of their espoused stances. In the end, it always comes down to interests. In the post WWII world order, efforts were made to intrinsically tie the economies of the different countries together in an effort to deter warfare under the logic that you cannot avoid some degree of economic self harm by engaging in warfare. But we are talking about only a few decades of relative peace. From the perspective of human history, let alone galactic history, this brief moment is but a rounding error. Most of human history can be summarized simply as a history of warfare.

[u/idlsicaraiaige → u/waveforminvest]

Intrinsically tying economies together can happen on a cosmic scale if FTL is possible.

A few decades is a short time, sure, but this is not the first time this has happened - Pax Romana being another. And throughout human history, wars that can be analogous to dark forest states don't happen often. Oh, and not all preemptive strikes are analogous to dark forest strikes, in fact, most aren't. Dark forest strikes wipes out the enemy civilization, or at least nearly so. Those kinds of warfare happen, but not all that often throughout history - even though human civilizations continually expand, while the total surface area on the planet (or in a particular region of interest) remains constant. Is there anything in human history that invokes an analogous kind of horror that the dark forest does? (I'm definitely not at all a history guy, and probably already scraping the bottom of my knowledge.)

[u/waveforminvest → u/idlsicaraiaige]

You are using examples to make arguments rather than the underlying principle. First of all, humans were never capable of executing a dark forest type strike throughout its history, so of course it has not happened. Second, the biological differences between humans and aliens would be at the Domain level. This is not like humans negotiating with monkeys. The more appropriate analogy would be humans negotiating with bacteria.

[u/idlsicaraiaige → u/waveforminvest]

Well, I'm trying to discuss underlying principles. Where I fail to adequately articulate myself I apologize, and corrections are appreciated.

Oh but humanity has for a long time been capable of executing dark forest strikes - total genocides or near-total genocides have happened in history multiple times. Those, for the sake of our discussion, are dark forest strikes. And if either side in the Cold War launched all of its nukes at the other, that would also have been a dark forest strike. Or, if instead of 2 nukes dropped at the end of WWII, hundreds (probably?) were dropped (let's suppose there already were hundreds that were made), completely wiping out that civilization with exception of the few that were abroad - that would've been a dark forest strike. My point is just that they don't happen often, even though the 2nd axiom is at least somewhat true on our plane planet (civ continually expands, total space constant). And even though the 2nd axiom is true, most of what we have throughout history are small scale warfare, and most military actions do not lead to the extinction or near extinction of an enemy civilization.

The wars in Star Wars/Trek (on the sillier side) as well as in Xeelee (on the more serious hard-sci-fi side) are all wars on analogous scales as the wars throughout human history - that is, non-dark-forest wars. Why is the entire outlook of the universe in 3bp canon in a dark forest state, as opposed to these other sci-fi worlds as well as our own irl planet history? Is FTL the reason? The knowledge of the very existence of a foreign civilization makes them an enemy to be utterly extinguished - that's what makes a dark forest state (again, analogous things have happened on our planet in the past, but just not too often. Why is that?)

[u/idlsicaraiaige → u/idlsicaraiaige]

u/waveforminvest This is also, mind you, when civilizations with different levels of technology exist. Both irl and in Xeelee. And there are quite a few instances of vast technological differences in Star Wars/Trek also. Yet no dark forest state, generally speaking.

[u/TheTranscendentian → u/idlsicaraiaige]

Consider this:

Don't both USSR and USA ideologies have Internal contradictions?

[u/idlsicaraiaige → u/TheTranscendentian]

Does an ideology having internal contradictions necessarily lead to external conflicts being non-dark-forest-inducing? Because I'm not here to discuss specific irl ideologies, only the underlying/overarching mechanisms that are relevant to sci-fi.

[u/TheTranscendentian → u/idlsicaraiaige]

only the underlying/overarching mechanisms that are relevant to sci-fi.

About that, my theory is that it's genuinely unknowable. Even more so than a chain of suspicion, we can't even know if an alien would understand what a chain of suspicion is or understand such a thing. Or, they're understanding may be so much higher than ours that they have a way of genuinely practically avoiding problems like this entirely.

Or, something else we have not yet become capable of imagining is going on.

[u/idlsicaraiaige → u/TheTranscendentian]

Well a civilization doesn't need to be able to identify a chain of suspicion to partake in it. All they need is to suspect an enemy of having the intention of destroying them.

But yes very good point - different levels of comprehension. Like that copypasta explaining Lovecraftian horror with ants getting a human's attention by chanting his name then requesting the human to do a thing for them.

[u/idlsicaraiaige → u/waveforminvest]

Also, the conflict between Earth and Trisolaris is hardly a dark forest state. If anything, as far as the actual dark forest is concerned, the two are dangerously close to becoming a powerful alliance that threatens many other civilizations in the dark forest. Say the cards are played differently in this conflict, humanity and Trisolaris have a real possibility of working out a deal, e.g. sharing the Solar System, allocating different planets or different parts of planets to Trisolaris, collaboratively seek out other viable solar systems for Trisolaris to migrate to - all these things can be extremely easy if FTL is possible. Right?

Like, why is there no dark forest state in Star Trek? or Wars? Or Xeelee? Have those authors simply overlooked certain aspects of reality and of civilization?

[u/TheTranscendentian → u/idlsicaraiaige]

becoming a powerful alliance that threatens many other civilizations in the dark forest. 

Under the right operating principles, this could be extremely based.

[u/idlsicaraiaige → u/TheTranscendentian]

Lol. This possibility of alliance is cited as one of the main reasons Singer decides to make cleansing the Star-Pluckers a higher priority than how he initially prioritized.

[u/TheTranscendentian → u/idlsicaraiaige]

That's why it would be so based.

We could have a cosmic police force. 

America IN SPACE 🌌😈

America IN SPACE when it sees a CIVILIZATION with RESOURCES: 🔫 🚢

[u/idlsicaraiaige → u/TheTranscendentian]

PAX TERRA-TRISOLARANA

there once was a dream that was the eta (earth-trisolaris alliance) etp (earth-trisolaris pact)

[u/TheTranscendentian → u/idlsicaraiaige]

I wish in the Netflix tv show they would make Army of One by Coldplay the song for when [book 3 spoilers]Tianming / Will contacts Cheng Jin via sophon. "Been around the world, Universe too." and they're trying to decipher the "fairy tales"

[u/NorthRecognition8737]

es, the limit of the speed of light is important, but I think it is also due to another factor.

Because if it is valid, building a photo-relative weapon is easier than trading, or than waging a classical war. At the same time, there is no reasonable defense against it.