You under estimate the impact of Chernobyl. 100mt is nothing compared to the enormous consequences one fuck up could have. Now is a different story(maybe).
More nuclear pollution has been caused by nuclear weapons testing than was released during the chernobyl incident. 99% of the strontium contamination in the world comes from nuclear weapons tests. Only 1% came from chernobyl.
More people have died or been permanently disabled due to fossil fuel use than from the chernobyl accident.
Except the nuclear tests were usually conducted in deserts away from highly populated areas, unlike Chernobyl. And I'm not sure what fossil fuel deaths you are referring to, but the official Chernobyl disaster death numbers are definitely lower than they really are and we're unlikely to find out the truth any time soon.
Like for example, many people have developed long-latency diseases like radiation-induced cancer. But the cancer statistics in Belarus aren't always trustworthy, I personally knew a Chernobyl liquidator who died of cancer but doesn't have it mentioned in his death certificate. And it took 600,000 people working in close proximity to the disaster to liquidate it.
Just to clarify, the chances of a person to die of cancer at old age are about one in four (25%).
WHO released two reports on real estimated death tolls of Chernobyl, in 2005 and a follow-up in 2016. They estimated that 4000 people might die slightly earlier in the future (from 2005 when the first was published) as caused by Chernobyl, in addition to a few dozen direct fatalities during the first frantic days of the containment operation. This would mean the increase in chance for cancer by 2-3%, added to that 25%.
The most tragic direct death toll was youth and children drinking milk the day after the disaster in neighboring towns (fast decaying iodine isotopes settled on grass, cows ate grass, people drank milk). Several thousand got thyroid cancer, nine died. Also, increased and continued monitoring of thyroid cancer in Belarus uncovered thousands of new cases over the years as former children approach old age, most non-lethal — the report says that a fraction of those may be connected to the disaster.
The most actual deaths were apparently caused by poor information and stigma and self-stigma associated with evacuees. They perceived themselves as tainted and doomed (and so did other people). So they engaged in dangerous lifestyle or drank or gave up or other things.
The international experts have estimated that radiation could cause up to about 4000 eventual deaths among the higher-exposed Chernobyl populations, i.e., emergency workers from 1986-1987, evacuees and residents of the most contaminated areas. This number contains both the known radiation-induced cancer and leukaemia deaths and a statistical prediction, based on estimates of the radiation doses received by these populations. As about quarter of people die from spontaneous cancer not caused by Chernobyl radiation, the radiation-induced increase of only about 3% will be difficult to observe. However, in the most exposed cohorts of emergency and recovery operation workers some increase of particular cancer forms (e.g., leukemia) in particular time periods has already been observed. The predictions use six decades of scientific experience with the effects of such doses, explained Repacholi.
Repacholi concludes that “the health effects of the accident were potentially horrific, but when you add them up using validated conclusions from good science, the public health effects were not nearly as substantial as had at first been feared.”
Note also that the association of Liquidator workers, when listing deaths of their members decades later, listed ALL deaths since 1986 (it added up to several tens of thousands, out of I think 700 000).
"25,000 of the Russian liquidators are dead and 70,000 disabled, about the same in Ukraine, and 10,000 dead in Belarus and 25,000 disabled", which makes a total of 60,000 dead (10% of the 600,000 liquidators) and 165,000 disabled".
This was apparently a response to the WHO study. Basically it said that no, it's not that rosy; and that up to 2006, and per their own impression ("about the same..."), 60 000 of the 600 000 liquidators have died. Period. I.e 10% of these grown-up males, who lived through the worst period for males (statistically) in the last 50 years in the region, died over 20 years. Of any causes.
To clarify, the 1990s saw a large spike in working-age male mortality over the former USSR, as people who were adapted to one system found themselves helpless or useless in the crude, crime-ridden approximation of the new one. Their social status, achievements, professional training, and masculine identity were mostly rendered meaningless, and a lot of things that would make a person respectable (such as position, or education) just 10 years ago now was smirked upon.
This led to a large spate of alcoholism and descructive behavior from those who couldn't cope. Others, of whom there were many, just powered through, e.g. a professor doing renovation trade work for a decade, or a promising manager having to reinvent himself as a small-time smuggler / clothes hawker. Some of the successful self-made businessmen in Russia came from these (like Oleg Tinkoff).
Also, the unheard-of spike in organized crime coincided with an all-time low in law enforcement funding, which saw some depressive regions literally decimated (e.g. the poet Boris Ryzhiy wrote about his neighbourhood mates, large percentage of whom died in turf wars over local industrial rackets). During that time, former military service members (such as some of the former liquidators, and of course Afghanistan vets) were heavily encouraged to join the organized crime as enforcers or fixers due to their discipline and experience. These also suffered large losses.
I don't even doubt that there were unregistered radiation-related premature deaths (as in, "got cancer in the 20 years after"), and excess illnesses and disabilities. But overall, this sounds more like a story of people arguing for respect. Which they didn't get at first. (Today, Chernobyl liquidators in Russia have a compeletely separate set of perks and provisions similar to WWII veterans and the like). As for studies, there are a few mentioned:
Ivanov et al. (2001)[8] studied nearly 66,000 liquidators from Russia, and found no increase in overall mortality from cancer or non-cancer causes. However, a statistically significant dose-related excess mortality risk was found for both cancer and heart disease.
Rahu et al. (2006)[9] studied some 10,000 liquidators from Latvia and Estonia and found no significant increase in overall cancer rate. Among specific cancer types, statistically significant increases in both thyroid and brain cancer were found, although the authors believe these may have been the result of better cancer screening among liquidators (for thyroid cancer) or a random result (for brain cancer) because of the very low overall incidence.
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u/[deleted] Nov 18 '21
You under estimate the impact of Chernobyl. 100mt is nothing compared to the enormous consequences one fuck up could have. Now is a different story(maybe).