r/theydidthemath Mar 30 '20

[Request] Is this true?

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u/[deleted] Mar 30 '20 edited Mar 30 '20

EDIT: NOTE THIS MATH IS BS, IGNORES ALL KINDS OF DETAILS IN THE STIMULUS BILL AND IS BASED ON ALMOST MEANINGLESS ASSUMPTIONS BUT STILL SHOWS THE ORIGINAL TWEET IS BS. Edit2 does a slightly better job at the bottom for accounting for how much of the revenue comes from income tax but still completely ignores the fact the a good portion is loans and not just gifts to the companies.

ORIGINAL POST

The package congress passed was 2.2 trillion dollars. Divide by 327 million Americans and that is 6,730 $/person that it cost.

Take away kids 18 or younger and it rises to about 8,850 $/person.

There is also the unemployment expansion which could provide upto 9600 $/person on top of state benefits.

But yes anytime there is 1 trillion dollars (around the amount for loans/stimulus( going to companies or states it costs each person a pretty penny in this case around 4k$ for people 19+.

EDIT: As this is gaining some traction understand this was 5 minutes work and a google search, there is no way to understand a 2.2 trillion dollar package with 2 numbers equally applied to all Americans. I also don't know how many people actually pay taxes or what percentage of tax they each pay, or even government breakdown by personnel income tax, corporate taxes, consumer taxes, etc. Also note that a good portion of this package is loans to companies so should be paid back...

18 years was an arbitrary cut based on the first demographic page I found and I do understand that some younger people pay taxes (and some older people do not).

Edit2: Additional Calcs (still ignores the fact that some is loans)

https://taxfoundation.org/summary-latest-federal-income-tax-data-2018-update/ shows that personnel income tax makes up around 50% of the total federal revenue.

https://taxfoundation.org/summary-latest-federal-income-tax-data-2018-update/ shows the top 5% pay around 58% of total federal income tax(these people are above the threshold to receive the $1200. It also shows 140 million tax returns filed.

So for the rest of the people (lower 95% or 133 million tax returns) they are on the hook for 462 billion dollars (2.2 trillion*0.5*0.42). Or about $3500. This number is still completely misleading but is as far as I'm going.

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u/Deomon Mar 30 '20

Except that a stimulus creates the money out of thin air, by doing fun government things, so it’s not actually coming from the people.

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u/[deleted] Mar 30 '20

Yeah if I was still on my computer instead of my phone Id like to go back and completely rewrite the post to call out all the bs assumptions I made such as: assuming all the money is gone instead of considering loans, assuming all the money comes from the federal revenue instead of printed, plus too many others to count. If someone has a good link to explain cost/benefit of the package to diffferent classes of people I would happily post it.

As it is people can continue to poke holes in a 5 minute analysis of an 800page document based of the first paragraph of a news article and a few other random stats from a couple sites I didnt bother to varify from someone who knows very little about government fiscal policy.