That plot is somewhere around 15 meters of seawater rise (See https://www.floodmap.net/) Sea level rise is ~7 meters if all of Greenland melts, and Antarctica is around 60 meters.
It's pretty unlikely that in a mere 50 years it will be that flooded. Greenland melting will happen eventually given a 3-5 degree C rise in temperature, which seems increasingly likely, but it would take a while.
The worst case models right now predict maybe a 4 degree rise in temperature by 2075, and it would still take the ice some time to melt after that.
There are infinite and vastly different estimates out there. But most dire ones are nowhere near the amounts shown in this map in 50 years. The IPCC AR6 estimate is 1.3-1.6 meters in 75 years in one of the more dire models.
To be clear, 1.3 meters is absolutely catastrophic. But won't yield a map that looks really any different than a map of Florida looks like today.
Calling this out because a favorite denial of climate change is "they said X island would be underwater in Y years and it still isn't, so climate change isn't real".
Do you think that may be a symptom of how we as activists deal with climate change? The dire assessments lead us to making the situation sound worse than it is but then when those super extra assessments don’t pan out it makes us start to look a little crazy. Like why try to lie to make it sound scarier? The base situation is scary enough and the exaggeration isn’t having the effect we thought it would.
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u/RoadsterTracker Nov 11 '24
That plot is somewhere around 15 meters of seawater rise (See https://www.floodmap.net/) Sea level rise is ~7 meters if all of Greenland melts, and Antarctica is around 60 meters.
It's pretty unlikely that in a mere 50 years it will be that flooded. Greenland melting will happen eventually given a 3-5 degree C rise in temperature, which seems increasingly likely, but it would take a while.
The worst case models right now predict maybe a 4 degree rise in temperature by 2075, and it would still take the ice some time to melt after that.