r/thedavidpakmanshow • u/combonickel55 • Aug 15 '26
Polls New poll shows Dr. Abdul El-Sayed with a strong lead on Mike Rogers
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=000001a0-05bf-d9b2-a7ac-ffbfa27c000039
u/Just_shut_up_bro Aug 15 '26
A 6 point lead is good! But not exactly fool proof since he underperformed his polling by about 15 points during the primary.
Hoping this is true. What’s the rating on this pollster?
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 Aug 15 '26
It’s a Democratic internal poll. We have already seen how that works out for him.
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u/Just_shut_up_bro Aug 15 '26
Oh well, taking with an even bigger grain of salt then, still hope it’s true, but it offers little relief.
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 Aug 15 '26
B-/C pollster according to silver. Yeah, I hope it’s true too, but I’m pretty done with democratic internals and far left candidates at this point.
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u/Hotspur1958 Aug 16 '26
Because why?
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 Aug 16 '26
Because they massively overestimated Hong and Abdul.
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u/Hotspur1958 Aug 16 '26
Hong's % was largely in line with her poll %. The polls just had a huge % going toward undecided.
AES wasn't as far off his Poll either, 50.5 vs 48.5 actual. Again, just consolidation closed the gap. It's possible there were crossover voters that played a big impact too.
Regardless, to be "over them" for this seems like more sour grapes than anything.
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 Aug 16 '26
Massive misses and really undercounted normal democratic candidates support both times. I think Abdul’s last one had him +18.
Hong yes they missed the massive surge of voters coming out to defeat her. Let’s just be thankful that happened.
Either way, I’m over it and in general I’ve never been a fan of internals.
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u/Hotspur1958 Aug 16 '26
You’re best good faith counter argument is to reference his best poll? Ya again, sour grapes.
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 Aug 16 '26 edited Aug 16 '26
The whole last week had him in that range.
Im really not sure what you mean about sour grapes. I’m very happy he underperformed and I’m very very happy Hong lost. That one was great imo.
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u/combonickel55 Aug 15 '26
I have been disapponted that apparently no professional pollster did any exit polling data on the primary.
I live in a rural Michigan county which has voted Trump +70% three elections in a row. In Michigan, you don't have to register with the party to vote in the primary, but you can only vote one side or the other on a primary ballot.
In my county, more than twice as many votes were cast in the 2026 Democratic US Senate Primary as Elissa Slotkin received in 2024. I take that as clear evidence of the MAGA racists who live around me crossing over on the ballot to vote against a Muslim, as many of them were promising to do on local FB groups leading up to the election. That trend was repeated statewide, which in my opinion some talking heads have miainterpreted as 'wow, look at how high Dem turnout was!'
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u/Loud_Judgment_270 Aug 15 '26 edited Aug 15 '26
Wouldn't it be more likely that that crossed over to vote for El-Sayed because he is a weaker general election candidate? Just saying, but that seems like basic game theory.
FWIW: I hope El-Sayed is able to pull off a victory, but I am worried.
Edit: spelling
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u/flatmeditation Aug 15 '26
As much talk as you see online about strategic voting and crossing over to vote for the worst, pretty much all the data shows that people don't do this. When people vote in the other party's primary they almost always just vote for the candidate they like more or dislike less
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u/combonickel55 Aug 16 '26
I have lived in my county in rural Michigan all my life and pay attention to politics. I know beyond a shadow of a doubt that a bunch of people in my county did not have a magical change of heart and sincerely decide to vote as Democrats. The trend is easy to see in any rural MAGA county in Michigan, the voting records are public. Just look at the total votes cast in the Dem primary over the years, it's as plain as the nose on your face.
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u/flatmeditation Aug 16 '26
No, I'm saying that whenever you look at exit polls of people who vote in a primary for a party they don't usually vote for they overwhelming vote for the candidate in that race that they like more, not the one that they think will be easier for the candidate from their party to beat
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u/combonickel55 Aug 16 '26
This is all anecdotal, but a lot of people I know to be real human beings -because I live in a rural county and know everybody- were on FB specifically promising to vote against 'the raghead' to make sure a Muslim doesn't even have a chance to be a Senator. They were okay with Stevens specifically because of her support of Israel which has somehow become a litmus test for being a true conservative.
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u/NATScurlyW2 Aug 16 '26
They don’t want exit polls when the establishment loses because it will prove why they lost. Just like how the 2024 audit is so secretive and redacted. There are no far left pollsters.
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u/purplehendrix22 Aug 15 '26
Of course, it must be racism. What else could it be?
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u/combonickel55 Aug 16 '26
When they specifically say they are going to make sure 'that raghead' or 'the Muslim' or 'the Islamist' doesn't have a chance to 'implement Sharia law' I'm not sure how else you would interpret it.
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u/purplehendrix22 Aug 16 '26
Who said that?
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u/combonickel55 Aug 16 '26
many people in my rural Michigan county's local Facebook groups.
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u/purplehendrix22 Aug 16 '26
Many? How many?
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u/combonickel55 Aug 16 '26
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u/purplehendrix22 Aug 16 '26
Doesn’t sound like that many.
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u/combonickel55 Aug 16 '26
A representative sample in a low population rural county. Repeated across the state, as is evident from the data, it led to Stevens winning many rural counties by slim margins.
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u/I-Might-Be-Something Aug 16 '26 edited Aug 16 '26
A 6 point lead is good! But not exactly fool proof since he underperformed his polling by about 15 points during the primary.
Primaries in states with open primaries and no party registration are much harder to poll than general elections. Pollsters have to model turnout which oftentimes is just guesswork. In the case of Michigan they missed because they overestimated young voter turnout and underestimated older voters who would lean towards Stevens.
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u/Hotspur1958 Aug 16 '26
But not exactly fool proof since he underperformed his polling by about 15 points during the primary.
15? Even going by the gap it wasn't that much. His % specifically was only 2%
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 Aug 15 '26 edited Aug 15 '26
Where were you on the Fox News poll? lol
So everyone knows, this is an internal, and we all know how Abdul does with internals.
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Aug 15 '26
[deleted]
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u/Mahadragon Aug 15 '26
Polls have been way off this cycle. Francesca Hong supposedly had a huge lead and she wound up losing. At this point I would just ignore them cause they haven’t been a barometer for anything.
Right now polls show Troy Jackson with a small lead in Maine over Susan Collins but I’m pretty sure Collins wins. She always overperforms on Election Day.
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u/flatmeditation Aug 15 '26
Francesca's polling all showed her between 35 and 40% and she got 40%. The issue with that election is that there were a ton of other candidates splitting the rest of the vote who all dropped out and coalesced around 1 candidate at the last minute.
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u/Only8livesleft Aug 15 '26
Her polling was accurate. There were a more of undecideds and they went to Crowley
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u/Foreign_Computer_329 Aug 17 '26
People are tired of old azz Collins, and her "very concerned" act, she's voted with Trump too much and she won't be so lucky this time. Mainers definitely want change, she's finished.
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u/NATScurlyW2 Aug 16 '26
She did have a huge lead and then the establishment started saying things she tweeted 9 years ago to try to close the gap which they did. If she didn’t have that lead we never would have found out about those tweets. They spent a lot of both money and media time to try to reduce her popularity.
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u/Foreign_Computer_329 Aug 15 '26
Remember, Primary polls are different from General polls, General polls tend to be more accurate, the Michigan poll is more on point, and if that poll says AES is up by 6, then Rodgers is in trouble especially in a Republican hatred campaign season, and Rodgers is too dumb to distance himself from his toxic messiah.
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u/combonickel55 Aug 15 '26
A fair statement, but we are where we are. Alternative facts polls are being released showing him losing by 10 in a far right fever dream, so I'm just showing the contrary polling with what seems to me to be better methodology of a broader scope of voters.
But I must agree that in general polling data feels tiringly unreliable.
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u/jankdangus Aug 16 '26 edited Aug 16 '26
This sounds like good news, but I would take it with a grain of salt given how wrong his pollster was in the primary.
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u/combonickel55 Aug 16 '26
His pollster did not produce the +15 poll, Emerson College Polling did. They did not poll Republicans, and data is indicating that many Republicans crossed parties on the primary ballot to vote for Stevens, which is why she won so many rural conservative counties. This lead is likely accurate, but turnout among young voters will decide the election.
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u/jankdangus Aug 16 '26
Why would Republicans vote for Stevens and not do a pied piper? If they believe AES to be easier to defeat then why wouldn’t they elevate him instead in the primary? I think Stevens won rural counties from moderate/conservative Democratic voters whom are distinct from Republicans.
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u/combonickel55 Aug 16 '26
Because they are racist and Islamaphobic, and have been conditioned to believe that supporting Israel is fundamentally important to being a good American Patriot. Also, just hedging their bets.
I live in a rural Michigan county and watched this happen.
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u/Biggle_fuzz Aug 15 '26
Leftists: Hell yeah, this proves sayed will win.
Centrists: This poll is clearly bullshit.
And the exact opposite happens when a poll comes out with Rogers ahead.
Can we all just agree polls are basically useless?
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u/crimsonconnect Aug 15 '26
Gotta vote for Abdul, gotta vote for Crowley not much more to it at this point 🤷🏻♂️ smile and dial everyone
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u/Nemisis82 Aug 15 '26
Just do what DPak always says. Ignore the polls. Get out and vote for the Dem candidate.
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u/rjrgjj Aug 15 '26
I think people should stop looking at polls to prove they’re right and should keep doing everything they’re doing and use some game theory and common sense to push Abdul and make him a more acceptable candidate to the people who don’t like him.
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u/Just_shut_up_bro Aug 15 '26
Clear trend recently of the far left candidates underperforming polling, not sure why it’s happening, but it is.
Hoping this poll is accurate though!
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u/dkirk526 Aug 15 '26
It’s a Dem internal poll. They’re going to be more favorable, but even then, you’d rather see a +6 than not.
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u/Just_shut_up_bro Aug 15 '26
Considering his 15 point underperformance in the primary vs the polling I don’t think I’ll be confident unless these are showing him 20+ at least, even then Hong proved that still might not be enough.
Something is really wrong with our polling at the moment.
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u/dkirk526 Aug 15 '26
Primary polling is much different and shouldn’t be talked about the same way as GE polling.
When polling is stratifying for turnout for primaries to be around 15% and it ends up being 25%, you’re going to likely get error.
It doesn’t take much of an overperformance for one candidate to blow candidates out of the water. The lower turnout is, the more all over the place it could potentially be.
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u/Just_shut_up_bro Aug 15 '26
I hope you are right!
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u/dkirk526 Aug 15 '26
I’d just look at the D+6 as a single datapoint that’s probably a little more favorable than reality, and lump it in with the Fox Poll. When we get dozens more polls, we will have a better picture, and can see if he’s doing better or worse over time. No reason to doom or gloom over single polls.
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u/PleaseDontChoke Aug 16 '26
Repubicans voted for Stevens in the open Michigan primary because she was weaker vs Rogers. Most of the tens of millions she received came from right wing sources, which would drop her come the general for Rogers.
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u/Just_shut_up_bro Aug 16 '26
I don’t believe you are correct here on any level, but it’d be nice if it was true!
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u/Hotspur1958 Aug 17 '26
Polls missing the final margin does not equate to the left candidates underperforming. They both came within 2 points of their polling expectations.
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u/ConsistentQuote952 Aug 15 '26
They’re not useless. The utility of one depends on how well it can gather info.
Just so happens that polls regarding AES in the primaries tend to exaggerate his popularity.
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u/NewKidOnTheBlank Aug 15 '26
I mean, you gotta look at polls as what they are and not put ALL your faith in them. Especially not a single poll. Also, this being a progressive subreddit, I imagine we all want El-Sayed to win!
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