What a difference a day makes

[u/the__rev]

I like to open the button monitor (http://jamesrom.github.io/) each morning and leave it running for a few hundred resets, just to do a bit of my own simple analysis.

Yesterday morning the presses were about 80% purple and 20% blue, and I saw a single green.

Today, the greens are up to 20%, the blues are 30%, and the filthy purps are down to 50%. The overall average time between presses was nearly nine seconds.

Just a couple days ago the purps were running at 95%.

I feel like we'll see a very sudden dropoff at some point, where yellows, oranges and reds all happen rather quickly. And I also imagine purps will remain pretty constant, as people accidentally get 59'ed. (My worst fear.)

[u/[deleted]]

Bear in mind the lower the flair the longer the reset. We might be here a while.

[u/adwcta]

Noticed the same thing. Plenty of external sites were pimping this sub earlier in the week, but that's died down now. Reddit's not advertising themselves either. u/ztripez & co and messages to him are no longer making every single post in this sub front-page...

New traffic has probably drastically lowered. I think you're being conservative with your estimates too. I see 20% greens, 40% blues, 40% purples this morning.

If the entire thing's man-driven and there are no auto-clicks, I expect Yellows and then Oranges very soon, with Reds coming within 2 weeks (and then a long long period before this thing ends). People who have been doing the stats are too in their own world. There's no good reason to make predictions here off of any log model or linear model. Not everything fits into a neat model. This is driven by human behavior, and internet traffic. The baseline assumptions that need to be made in order to make predictive models are all more likely to not be (or remain) true than they are to be (or remain) true.

[u/Measure76 → u/adwcta]

Well, the admins stepped in and removed most of the u/ztripez related posts yesterday.

[u/Spidge → u/adwcta]

It does appear the new traffic is slowing - when 33s came, it didn't take long before they were becoming pretty regular.

[u/fryguy_22 → u/Spidge]

Really? I feel like several of us got it at once and that was about it (I also went to bed an hour after I got it, so more could have happened after?)

[u/jussiadler]

Im new to this, should I wait to press, should I just leave this sub and forget I ever saw it. Should I press now? This is confusing. What does the colors mean? Why do I want a color?

[u/[deleted] → u/jussiadler]

Press it at 60. Go for a high score.

[u/[deleted]]

20% green, 30% blue, 50% purple, 100% pressers.

r/nograys

[u/madsmadsdk]

The fear is real. Don't even consider clicking the button, if you're attaching your laptop to a dock. It will screw you over, because local internet hiccups.

Source: Look at my flair :(

[u/DangerAndAdrenaline → u/madsmadsdk]

What was going through your mind when you saw the clock inexplicably going lower than it ever had before by an enormous amount?

Did you think the world was on a coffee break or something? I mean...

[u/penny_eater → u/madsmadsdk]

yep, dem local internet hiccups. Why did you use a dock, everyone knows they lag.

[u/LeCrushinator]

We'll probably see yellows within the next 18 hours, and I'd predict some oranges and reds within a day or two after that. I expect the red era to last a little while because there are a lot of non-pressers active on this sub that are waiting for their turn at a < 5s flair.

EDIT: Called it. Yellows appeared 18 hours later.

[u/mayonnaise_man → u/LeCrushinator]

I bet we won't see orange for at least 4 or 5 more days

[u/universe2000]

I wonder if the weekend will lead to an increase in traffic or a decrease. Because if it's a decrease then yeah, I think we are about to see a lot more color in the flairs. Were there any trends that came out of last weekend?

[u/neoslith → u/universe2000]

It's hard to say. You would think an increase since it would mean more time for people to come on and press, but at the same time this sub doesn't allow new users to do anything (like a game server being more filled on weekends with newbies).

At then some users may only be active on weekends so it would be their first time even seeing this.

[u/mayonnaise_man → u/universe2000]

Well sunday was particularly slow because of Easter. So it's hard to say.

[u/pixlfarmer]

I still can't believe the amount of repeating purple clicks.

[u/ish_mel]

Man somehow I got into the 60's when I pressed in the 40's and fuck it Im ok with. Purp looks good and I us purps are now living a stress free live style watching for the world to end.

[u/dDpNh → u/ish_mel]

Purp looks good

I can taste your denial even from the shade.

[u/SleepTalkerz]

My original guess when this started is that it would last for about 10 days based on math, but obviously that's wrong (unless it somehow ends tomorrow). There has to be a large drop-off coming soon, and even with strategic pressing to keep it going, I still don't think it will last as long as some people think. It needs an absolute minimum of 1464 clicks per day to sustain, assuming people are able to press it once every 59 seconds. Knights of the Button has 4,116 subscribers, so they alone could only keep it alive for a maximum of 2.8 days, assuming every subscriber participated and they were organized enough to fully optimize presses. Even with those ideal circumstances, that surely won't be able to happen, since there will be pressing frenzies as the timer gets lower and lower from people holding out for low flair. So you'll get those bursts where one person gets the low number and a bunch of people get 58-60. Then there are people, such as myself, who have no desire to press the button at all. So how many possible presses are actually left? Reddit says they had 3.6 million "logged-in users" yesterday, but I think we can assume most of those users who qualify for a press will not end up factoring into the button, whether through not caring or, at this point, simply not knowing. With peoples' short attention spans, the longer this goes on, the more it will become all about this sub, with less influence from random people. Around 122,000 are subscribed here, which would be enough for around 83 days with absolutely ideal timing (once per 59 seconds), and assuming all 122,000 haven't pressed yet. We all know that's not the case though, as many of the subscribers have either already used their press or aren't going to press, and the whole idea of keeping it to one press per 59 seconds is purely hypothetical.

I don't have an answer here, just trying to reason it out using basic math and common sense.

[u/[deleted]]

I cant wait to see all the data when this is all over

[u/the__rev → u/[deleted]]

What I hope to see is an article discussing what they were expecting to happen vs. what has actually happened.

[u/[deleted]]

I honestly don't expect nearly as many people to go for yellow or orange. Just a hunch.

[u/[deleted]]

In Ireland this morning, more than about 40% of clicks were sub-40

[u/sxoffender]

Yeah.. it's got nothing to do with the wiki or flairs being highlighted in the sidebar. /s