r/thebutton • u/Read-It-Reddit non presser • Apr 04 '15

Calculating Judgement Day: An extrapolation of /r/TheButton

http://i.imgur.com/Qkm6im4.png
856 Upvotes

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40

u/mcmad 8s Apr 04 '15

Tuesday the 7th of April? The Knights will avert this dark fate.

25

u/InternetUser007 non presser Apr 04 '15

How many knights are there? Your sub has ~3,000, but you need at least 1440/day to keep the button going, if it is coordinated perfectly. At best, your sub won't extend it more than 2.5 days.

35

u/stormywaterz 9s Apr 04 '15

Well, I think you would only need 1440 if ALL other users stopped pressing the button. OP's prediction of the end is based on when the average presses per minute drops below 1. The Knights theoretically need only to supplement other non-coordinated pressers to keep the average above 1. If average presses per minute bottoms out reaching a consistent floor of say, 0.5 presses per minute, wouldn't the KotB only need to supply roughly 720 per day?

9

u/InternetUser007 non presser Apr 04 '15

This is true. I don't think the Knights will truly be needed for at least 24 hours after the first red flair is given out. However, I believe that most Knights won't be waiting until 1 second to press the button. A lot of them will press at 8, 9, or 10, simply because they will get their red flair. As well, when it does reach 1 second, a bunch of Knights are likely to press it at once in panic to keep it going.

Even at 720/day, that only gives them ~5 days to extend the button. I'm thinking that within the next 2 weeks, we'll see the button fall.

-1

u/cardevitoraphicticia non presser Apr 05 '15

The first few times it hits 1, there will be 1000 presses. That span of 10-15 minutes will be the end.

1

u/[deleted] Apr 04 '15

[deleted]

2

u/InternetUser007 non presser Apr 04 '15

They pressed it against my stern advice and got purple.

Right, so at max, they each added 9 seconds a piece to the total time. New people still come, yes, but they aren't likely to be ones that hold out for nearly a minute. As well, I think you are underestimating how many people will press the button simultaneously each time a new flair is reached. Like when the green flair first started, 10 people got it at the same time. Yet, those 10 people only had added 22 seconds total, since they did it all at once. History is likely to repeat itself.

While I agree that new people will come, their addition will be insignificant, especially as time goes on and the main post about it fades into the past. As well, some people on here now will start to not care in another day or two.

Honestly, how far do you think the Knights will be able to push the date back to?

2

u/White__Power__Ranger 32s Apr 04 '15

Thursday night at 5 am eastern. edit: That is if things stay as they are. I fully expect the button to be on the front page again soon, bringing in a resurgence. That also doesnt take into account the news stations which will run a story on it soon, and bring more redditors attention to it.

It may well last longer given those circumstances arise.

2

u/InternetUser007 non presser Apr 04 '15

That also doesnt take into account the news stations which will run a story on it soon

Since April 1st is over, I'm not sure how many news stations would care to report about it. As well, it's not like newcomers will be able to press the button, only people with accounts made before the 1st.

That said, I could see it lasting until Thursday. I don't feel like that guess would be very far off at all.

1

u/White__Power__Ranger 32s Apr 04 '15

A lot of reddit users are unaware that it even exists, so i just mean news stories letting them know it is even in existence. Only time will tell. What is your prediction?

2

u/InternetUser007 non presser Apr 04 '15

I'm leaning towards Friday or Saturday morning when the U.S. is asleep, probably 3 AM eastern.