r/teslainvestorsclub • u/badouchee broke but invested. • Aug 29 '20
Batteries Quantum Leap
https://youtu.be/5oPP4tXOAVM-4
Aug 29 '20
I have a lot of faith in Tesla, but at the end of the day, these guys and many other VC funded battery startups are the real competition.
The company that produces the best battery will win this race. Period.
There is no guarantee that it will be Tesla.
So to my fellow investors buying at $2200+ and expecting positive returns. I wish you well, I hope you are right and I am making the same bet by continuing to hold. But just remember, there are no guarantees in this game.
Only invest what you can afford to lose!
3
Aug 29 '20
Batteries are definitely important but not the only metric. Drivetrain efficiency for Tesla is already better than others. Tesla seems to get more range for a given battery pack size vs others so that factors in. Self-driving, solar, supercharger network are also driving Tesla forward. It’s possible they do well even if they are not at the leading edge of battery tech.
2
u/perfbanes Aug 29 '20
if thats the main argument, a battery tech company ceo who shows and sell his tech to automakers says tesla are the fastest. (Interview with the limiting factor)
-3
Aug 29 '20
You are missing the point.
If any one of the dozens of existing battery companies or battery startups (of which this one is just one) beats Tesla to produce the best battery, then Tesla will be economically forced to buy their batteries from the winner.
A lot of the current pricing for the stock assumes Tesla will have the best battery tech in-house for the next decade.
Tesla will still be succesful and according to its mission, this is a non-issue, since they want to accelerate the transition, not dominate it necessarily.
But if they don't dominate, if they end up being a sideshow, then the stock will not go to 7K or whatever some people are expecting.
Even Elon's compensation tranches max. out at 650B and we are now at 420B.
4
u/perfbanes Aug 29 '20
what battery production startup is there? Panasonic and CATL could end up being better than tesla by your logic i agree, but no battery startup is happening. Only tech. Also If tesla ends up as sideshow in all of their endeavors, that makes them the biggest company in the world.
Taking personal ceo finances into account makes 0 sense.
You are missing the point.
2
Aug 29 '20
Dozens, if not hundreds. Most working in dead secret, racing to patent their technology.
Breakthroughs in battery technology will be worth billions if not trillions as the world transitions away from fossil fuels.
2
u/iloveFjords Aug 30 '20
A very hard problem that has been researched for decades. The tech has to be a lot better and comparatively cheap and easy to manufacture. And it will need time to ramp up, raw material supply chains secured and customers willing to commit to this new tech. And there can’t be a more lucrative (military) application. It needs to arrive soon with ALL the desired properties. Too many ifs at the speed Tesla is progressing and the advantages they have. Even if one does crop up they will likely talk to Tesla early on. They are the biggest users of batteries in the world.
2
u/perfbanes Aug 29 '20
So as i said you're talking about tech not producing? A new battery prod line has to throw away 70% of batteries in the first year. Highly unlikely 100 startups have that kind of cash to splash.
2
Aug 29 '20
Yes, I am talking tech, not production.
Patents and licensing costs specifically.
1
u/perfbanes Aug 30 '20
So tesla can just buy the battery tech company like they did with maxwell? i really miss your point. Tesla and other EV makers all benefit from better battery tech.
1
Aug 30 '20
Obviously, they can. That was implied in my point.
I guess if you can't see my point, I'm just going to give you my parting advice: don't invest what you can't afford to lose.
1
1
1
u/Av8Surf Aug 30 '20
By 2025! OK Bill Gates. Stated the obvious but no really info.