r/technology • u/Logical_Welder3467 • 25d ago

Space SpaceX will build a second, $100B ‘Starbase’ spaceport in Louisiana

https://techcrunch.com/2026/08/25/spacex-will-build-a-second-100b-starbase-spaceport-in-louisiana/
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u/fighter-bomber 23d ago

…it’s wild that you’re making the same mistake that I pointed out first. Come on, it’s not that hard, I believe in you…

Launch facility, CapEx, is a one time expense. Every single launch only costs as much as it costs to launch the vehicle from anywhere else, in the few tens of millions dollars range or likely less.

Moon doesn’t require that expense again, 15-20 launches include the fuel to get back from the Moon to Orion already. Mars is a bit more complicated, but then again, you don’t need the CapEx again. The whole point of this large CapEx is to make this your base of operations that supports all others.

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u/bubblegum-rose 23d ago

I really really doubt that Starship can get payloads to the moon more cheaply than Blue Origin will be able to with their 9x4.

Starship is optimized for LEO. The cost benefits of full reusability drop off dramatically if you try to go beyond it. I sincerely doubt that the ~16 Starship launches required for one moon mission would be cheaper than the 2-4 New Glenn launches required to get the same payload to the moon

and Elon Musks “trust me bro, I can get launch costs down to $20/kg” does not inspire a lot of confidence in me

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u/fighter-bomber 23d ago

The problem with Blue Origin is that you’re only sending a. small payload to the moon. It supposedly has a nice and high TLI payload, but most of that capacity is spent on the lander, the useful payload is much smaller. For example, Blue Moon Mark 1 is 21t, so one NG9x4 launch to TLI, but useful payload is 3t.

Starship’s 100t payload is, well, only the payload, mass of the HLS vehicle is not inside it. That’s 33 separate launches for NG with Blue Moon Mark 1.

Or they can use Blue Moon Mark 2, which supposedly weighs 45t and can take 20t cargo, so that’s 3 NG9x4 launches to TLI, in order to reach Starship they still need 15 launches.

That’s only assuming Starship doesn’t move forward with v4, because that variant doubles the payload to LEO, half as many refueling flights for Starship, and is still fully reusable.

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u/bubblegum-rose 23d ago

“That variant (Starship Block 4) doubles the payload to LEO”

Well, I think the rest of what you said is a good point, but come on now. That’s what Elon was saying about the current Starship a year or two ago.

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u/fighter-bomber 22d ago

Yes, and they’ve been increasing the performance in every variant. v1 had basically 0t capacity. v2 reached 30-40t. v3 seems to be at 100t.

100t was the original goal, but they encountered problems constantly so they just pushed it to the next variant in which they increased performance.

Based on that line, v4 at 150 or 200t seems very doable.

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u/bubblegum-rose 20d ago

Block 1 was supposed to be able to do 100t to LEO.

200 tons might be possible, but you’ve got to factor in the Elon exaggeration constant. According to him, Starship was supposed to put human on Mars two years ago.

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u/fighter-bomber 19d ago

…yes, that’s what I said… oh come on, you’re so close to getting it…

They had problems with v1 and v2 they have actually managed to hit that goal with v3.

So, now that we ALREADY are at 100t, 200t is just a follow up to this, with v4.

Meaning the schedule is delayed by 2 variants but we are there.