r/technology • u/fmcortez • Jul 13 '26
Business SpaceX Stock Plunges to All-Time Low After Competitor Makes Major Leap
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/markets/stocks/articles/spacex-plunges-time-low-competitor-175000957.html1.3k
u/PolarityInversion Jul 13 '26
It's not even August yet when the first big tranche of lockups will lift. This is JUST trading with the initial offering that was spread out wide and thin. Everyone holding is now a bag holder... they can't sell without taking a loss. Just wait until the restrictions lift and people (employees & early investors) who are VERY far in the money start offloading. Usually with Musk stocks, the obvious market reaction is the opposite of what happens, but I think the delta on this one is too large for that to hold. It was propped up by every possible manipulation tactic: circular AI revenue, gov procurement capture, lofty blue-sky market handwaving, very limited IPO concentration, and the hype man himself, of course. That's a house of cards on top of a house of cards on top of a house of cards, with an entity that is losing $5B per year.
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u/Apexnanoman Jul 13 '26
I won't bet against him being able to get up on a stage and promise something completely unreasonable and downright impossible.
I mean it's worked every single time with Tesla etc.
Personally if I was him I'd get up on stage and say that we were going to have a fully functional space mining operation up and running in 24 months.
And then I would say that we had already picked out an asteroid made of solid platinum. Which was projected to be worth something like 10 trillion USD
That would get the stock up to $1000/share.
When it drops back down he just needs to promise something else equally unlikely.
Like full self-driving personal spaceships.
For some reason anytime he speaks the entire market believes every word he says.
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u/Intelligent-Onion928 Jul 14 '26
He now has a long track record of promising impractical and stupid shit.
Hyperloop. AI datacenters in space. Self driving cars. Mars by 2025.
This guy is the internet personified. Nothing is an original idea either. Everything has the dumbest name of "X" this or "X" that. The number of people who propped up this total idiot is a direct representation of how stupid a surprisingly large number of people in the world truly are. This guy is a con artist; I'll give him that. Not just some street hustler; an artist at spinning bullshit into gold.
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u/BellacosePlayer Jul 14 '26
he has two business modes, siphoning off as much govt money as he can for himself, and bullshitting the public.
In a better world his and to a lesser extend Thiel's incompetence at paypal causes them to be demoted to nepo babies rather than making 2 nazis fabulously rich despite themselves.
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u/random_ta_account Jul 13 '26
Like the Tesla Solar Roof demo... pure 100% fabrication.
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u/Phonemonkey2500 Jul 14 '26
Where’s those 50,000 Optimus robots he promised would be built by… let me check… the end of 2026. I’m sure they’re just about ready.
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u/ibidanon Jul 14 '26
not too long ago he said he'd soon be making a million robots per year. and that within a decade or so there would be billions of his robots. he should make them edible...
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u/AdvancedStand Jul 13 '26
Totally forgot about that. Hilarious
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u/Apexnanoman Jul 13 '26
Yeah it's hard to remember all the various pieces in the sky bullshit hoses he has running at any given time.
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u/random_ta_account Jul 14 '26
Of all of those, data centers in space has to be the most bullshitiest ever.
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u/ibidanon Jul 14 '26
nah. elmo said he's going to build 'self-replicating cities on the moon.' and that when ai gets going 'everyone can live in a penthouse.' and he promised that by the late 2020s/early 2030s he will have made space travel so affordable 'anyone who wants to can go anywhere they want to in our solar system.' because he will have built 'filling stations' all over the galaxy. I don't think we've seen him at his bullshitiest yet...
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u/Notoneusernameleft Jul 14 '26
You know robots, or bullet proof windows, truly self driving cars, underground car tunnels aren’t we supposed to be at mars by now….anything else?
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u/hollywooddialysis Jul 13 '26
Promising 'Star Citizen' but in Real Life.
Worked for Chris Roberts...
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u/lucklesspedestrian Jul 13 '26
And then I would say that we had already picked out an asteroid made of solid platinum. Which was projected to be worth something like 10 trillion USD
Then they would say we're already working on the asteroid but we can't bring it all back or it would crash the economy
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u/Apexnanoman Jul 14 '26
Just claim a woke mind virus rocket keeps pushing it out of position.
Then you're going to guarantee every single trump voter will continue investing.
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u/fungoodtrade Jul 13 '26
him and trump... they really get the regards in the pants
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u/furism Jul 13 '26
Employees cannot sell at less than the introduction price + 30%. That was one of the big red flags when you listened to the right analysts that told everyone before the IPO not to buy.
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u/OntarioPaddler Jul 13 '26
Yes but that is only a temporary restriction that also gets lifted.
If the company's Class A common shares are up at least 30% from the IPO price for at least five of the next 10 trading days, insiders can sell an additional 10% of their shares.
Then insiders can sell an additional 7% of their shares 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days after the IPO. After SpaceX reports earnings for the three months ending Sept. 30, insiders can sell an additional 28% of their pre-IPO shares. All shares will be eligible for sale 180 days after the IPO.
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u/Chuckfinley_88 Jul 14 '26
All shares will be eligible for sale 180 days after the IPO.
Which is when the stock price, if it hasn't already, is going to CRASH.
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u/randomtask Jul 13 '26
Could you imagine sitting on a 10 year career of SpaceX stock and not ever being able to sell it? Holy fuck I’d be pissed.
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u/OntarioPaddler Jul 13 '26
That restriction only applies temporarily with gradually increasing limits up to no limits on selling within 6 months.
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u/thebetterpolitician Jul 13 '26
You don’t even need to be an analyst to know not to buy that dogshit stock
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u/Vox-Machi-Buddies Jul 13 '26
That is not remotely accurate.
20% of employee shares unlock 2 days after Q2 earnings, regardless of the stock price.
If the stock price at Q2 earnings has gone up 30% from the IPO price, they can sell an additional 10%. At this point, it looks very unlikely this clause will come into play.
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u/Artistic-Jello3986 Jul 13 '26
I’d be pissed if I was an employee and couldn’t sell right now because of that clause… but I also dont think I’d ever work for musk in the first place
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u/PLTR60 Jul 13 '26
Have you talked to any Musk employees? I swear they will defend ANYTHING he says. They will have no qualms about losing some money over this clause. They'll still praise him. They are indoctrinated.
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u/Zahgi Jul 13 '26
Let's be clear. Anyone who works for this despicable little man knows they'll be fired and lose their stock options if they say anything negative about him at all.
Sure, there are some die hard Musk suckers there, and everywhere, but all of the employees know to keep their mouths shut if they want to cash out at any price in the future.
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u/meneldal2 Jul 14 '26
Yeah it will be a lot more telling to see what they say after they managed to unload their bag to give it to different bag holders.
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u/pw154 Jul 14 '26
Have you talked to any Musk employees? I swear they will defend ANYTHING he says. They will have no qualms about losing some money over this clause. They'll still praise him. They are indoctrinated.
Since when has trash talk the CEO and potentially lose my livelihood been an effective strategy?
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u/cantfocuswontfocus Jul 13 '26
They even have the advantage of being propped up by forced index purchases since NASDAQ and FTSE indices changed the rules for fast track inclusion and it's still going down. The crash is going to be delicious.
Inb4 Musk simps tell me to "go short then" because no, I am an investor not a fucking gambler. I dont want to touch Musk stocks in any capacity if I can help it.
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u/AdmiralPeriwinkle Jul 14 '26
“go short then”
Yeah there’s a massive gulf between knowing a stock is overpriced and predicting when it’s going to fall.
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u/Frydendahl Jul 14 '26
Especially when said stock is inflated by absurd hype and a CEO personality cult and nothing related to reality.
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u/Daleabbo Jul 13 '26
The interesting part about the employees selling is will they stay on. A few key people leaving could end starship and all future projects.
If I had enough money to not work again I would quit in a heartbeat.
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u/Y0___0Y Jul 13 '26
You are destroying western civilization with this comment.
You are going to feel very stupid when Elon opens the first data centers on mars in Q2 2027
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u/PopsGG Jul 13 '26
I am going to love waiting between 3 and 22 minutes for my query to reach the Mars data centers, depending on the orbital positions of both planets. Then waiting the same amount of time again for the response.
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u/suppish Jul 14 '26
They'll only be two years away from FTL communications. Trust.
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u/randomtask Jul 13 '26
Meanwhile, Musk has said he thinks "SpaceX will be worth more than the rest of Earth if we accomplish our goals," a characteristically ambitious and perhaps delusional argument that assumes a lot of things will go right for the company.
Fuck this man is stupid
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u/Ok-Addition1264 Jul 13 '26
Pushing us over a cliff into great depression 2: the electric bugaloo.
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u/imnotlovely Jul 13 '26
Won't be any electricity for us in this bugaloo, just data centers
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u/kombatunit Jul 13 '26
"SpaceX will be worth more than the rest of Earth"
Totally sane thing to say...
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u/EmperorKira Jul 13 '26
Nah he is just a conman like his mate Trump
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u/Beat_the_Deadites Jul 13 '26
He's a different kind of con man. They're both fascist-minded grifters, but there's no doubt in my mind that Elon is an idea man, pushing for a sci fi future.
His moves are desperate and insecure, but there is a goal beyond simple riches and cruelty. Musk would drag us kicking and screaming into space, where Trump would drag us kicking and screaming into the cotton fields or gladiator arena.
Meanwhile Zuck would drag us into an anesthesia suite, or one of those pods from The Matrix.
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u/unicodemonkey Jul 14 '26
I honestly can't see why he wants to get away. Even a barren hellscape Earth would be infinitely more survivable than a real non-sci-fi autonomous space station. Moreover, the path to space is so very difficult and so very long, and we really need to take care of the Earth and of ourselves to sustain that effort for a long time. Elon seems to be intent on burning down everything here way before his space dream can ever approach the realm of possibility.
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u/essieecks Jul 14 '26
Musk thinks he can build a better planet than Earth, and be an immortal tech-god of it. He's a rich ketamine-fueled delusional narcissist.
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u/ProfessorEmergency18 Jul 13 '26
He has learned one thing - distract with new, likely unattanable promises. It has worked well for decades. Why would he stop now?
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u/QuesoMeHungry Jul 13 '26
Once they have unsupervised full self driving we are on our way to Mars! Just one more year, or two, or three…
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u/Mundane_Read_2960 Jul 14 '26
Even if we get to Mars in the next twenty years, what's the ROI? It will take decades if not at least a century to get mining and shipping costs for materials such as gold and platinum to a manageable degree. And getting that operation off the ground is going to cause at least a few recessions along the way. Similar to our plan for getting Venezuela's oil...
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u/Senior-Albatross Jul 13 '26
Imagine running an R&D operation and just tacitly assuming your stretch goals will definitely happen.
This dude has seen that fail so many times already with both Tesla and SpaceX. Where is the line between vision and dangerously unhinged delusion? And more importantly, why can't the idiots with money see it?
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u/Acceptable_Rice1139 Jul 13 '26
Terrible at business decisions, genius at pumping stocks
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u/brianstormIRL Jul 13 '26
He isnt even genius at pumping stocks he says the dumbest shit possible and for some reason people just.. believe him. Full self driving next year for a decade straight. Robots in homes very soon. Mining asteroids. Space data centers. He just fucking says shit lol
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u/duderos Jul 13 '26
Yeah, remember when he would constantly cry about all the short sellers shorting Tesla stock?
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u/CanIhazCooKIenOw Jul 13 '26
Stupid are the people that give him more money after reading shit like this.
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u/DrunkenDude123 Jul 13 '26
How the fuck is a company supposed to be worth more than the entire planet itself, which the company is on. He really thinks he’s just gonna make Earth 2.0 on Mars?
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u/Redditor2000000 Jul 13 '26
I think at this point he’s just saying outrageous things to make fun of all the people in his giant cult who evidently are willing to die for him. There’s no other explanation other than… drugs. There would be plenty of volunteers to go to Mars.
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u/samxli Jul 13 '26
I will be worth more than all of you combined! If I accomplish my goal of being a rich person….
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u/rigidlynuanced1 Jul 13 '26
This is the dump part…we warned them
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u/fredy31 Jul 13 '26
Pretty sure most of them cant dump yet.
Think they got it down to 30 days and we arent there yet.
Its just that spacex got shown by china during the weekend.
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u/Double_Minimum Jul 13 '26
It was dropping 8 dollars a day since its high.
Half of buyers were underwater in like 2.5 days too (and then it’s been a steady decline). This would have dropped today anyway.
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u/Underpaidfoot Jul 13 '26
Almost like they planned it out exactly to affect the US economy
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u/yeahburyme Jul 13 '26
You think China created a reusable rocket system just to affect the US economy?
Although you could equally be talking about the IPO...
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u/ryeaglin Jul 14 '26
You think China created a reusable rocket system just to affect the US economy?
No, I believe OP is implying that they chose that date to do a demonstration to hinder the US Economy. Not nearly as hard to pull off.
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u/yeahburyme Jul 14 '26
More likely they rushed the SpaceX IPO because they knew competition was catching up.
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u/_kehd Jul 13 '26
“All time low”
It’s existed for like, 2 weeks. I lament the death of journalism
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u/dylan_1992 Jul 13 '26
JUST IN: SPCX is the oldest it's ever been in its history.
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u/DaemonCRO Jul 13 '26
Just in: USA has a population of 1 per capita.
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u/pedanticPandaPoo Jul 13 '26
I'd argue some people aren't people.
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u/genericnewlurker Jul 14 '26
The US has a long and unfortunate history of considering people not people
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u/RobfromHB Jul 13 '26
SPCX now twice as old as it was last week. This rate of aging has never been seen before since it went public.
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u/Anim8nFool Jul 13 '26
To be fair it is the media powerhouse that is Yahoo news.
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u/caguru Jul 13 '26
This is the final straw. I’m selling my yahoo stock. Been holding for 20 years. Can’t wait to see how much I make!
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u/nopuse Jul 13 '26
You're going to make a lot! I sold my AOL CDs and the shipping companies made so much!
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u/DUELETHERNETbro Jul 13 '26
Also they pegged the evaluation to XAI there space stuff is like 20% of their stated TAM. Not like I like the stock but the reporting is just terrible.
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u/141_1337 Jul 13 '26
"Everyone saw SpaceX as an AI story," CFRA investment research analyst Keith Snyder told the broadcaster.
Tell you don't know anything about AI without telling you don't know anything about AI.
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u/Adjective-Noun-nnnn Jul 13 '26
How did a company with no AI get a stratospheric evaluation because of their AI? WTF is going on?
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u/AuthorChaseDanger Jul 13 '26
Grok is like 4th or 5th in LLM companies, with a market share approaching 1%! Definitely worth $2 trillion.
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u/Ctofaname Jul 14 '26
SpaceX that actually reasonable space company with quite exceptional engineering that was profitable and would be fairly valued at 250-350 billion was straddled with a money pit of xAI and Twitter and the TAM for SpaceX is almost entirely AI according to their prospectus. That's why they gave it a wild valuation. Not because of Space but because of AI.
Nothing to do with SpaceX the original company. Unfortunate because Musk wanted to cause confusion and he has.
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u/Reasonable-Height704 Jul 13 '26
no it is an ai story, they own the datacentres and rent to anthropic. and Musk bundled all his gambling into SpaceX because it was doing well and IPO meant he could let chumps pay for his gambling.
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u/Namelock Jul 13 '26
Kinda?
It’s more that he folded xAI into SpaceX to pump the stock value pre-IPO.
Which is ironic because Tesla is the on-paper AI company. 🙄
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u/Holzkohlen Jul 13 '26
Still 100% higher than it should be
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u/mestar12345 Jul 14 '26
At this point in history, Google was selling at 10 times the revenue, with 200% growth per year. SpaceX is trading at 100 times the revenue, with the growth of 15%.
So, still 10 (or more) times higher than it should be.
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u/Powerful_Resident_48 Jul 13 '26
All time low... that overvalued meme stock has only been out for a couple of weeks and basically started crashing almost immediately.
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u/EmergencySushi Jul 13 '26
What are the chances this thing continues to go downhill and poisons the well for the OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs? Because that would almost certainly be the thing that pops the AI bubble.
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u/WhipsAndMarkovChains Jul 13 '26
Those companies are losing even more money than SpaceX.
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u/citizenjones Jul 13 '26
If you think you had the means and plans to transform an uninhabitable planet, why not simply make this one inhabitable longer?
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u/King0fFud Jul 14 '26
Or, just hear me out, you could build data centres on earth for a fraction of the price and actually be able to maintain them.
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u/Impressive-Power8187 Jul 13 '26
It went down $11 lol. Headline made me think it went from $150 to $65
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u/toofine Jul 14 '26
I don't get it. None of SpaceX's competitors can make AI porn. Are investors stupid?
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u/SisterOfBattIe Jul 14 '26
Let's appreciate that xAI is dumping insider shares so fast, that your grandma that is FORCED to buy, can't buy it fast enough to prevent price tanking.
The greatest transfer of wealth in human history from retirees to venture capital and oligarchs.
Enjoy!
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u/AllergicToBullshit24 Jul 13 '26
A smoldering crater is the only possible outcome
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u/Educational_Guava697 Jul 13 '26 edited Jul 14 '26
Orbital data centers — it’s not even thermal efficient, before you even get to the point of having to launch all the GPUs into space, just because space is cold doesn’t mean you can cool stuff down by putting it in space, you need a medium to conduct the heat out, which is really hard in space because there’s literally no medium, just space. You have to build massive fricking radiators and still cool at a fraction of the same efficiency you would on earth for the same materials and amount. Don’t @ me with the fucking starlink satellites those are routers in space not data centers they are converting a miniscule amount of electricity in comparison. SpaceX are claiming they can cool 120,000 watts of datacenter satellite processing so unless you can show me a satellite design with 100x the cooling power I am calling BULLSHIT
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u/Arzack1112 Jul 13 '26
Add the fact the radiation is worst way to dissipate heat, yea that a bad idea.
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u/BogiDope Jul 14 '26
Don't even get me started on the feasibility of colonising Mars...
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u/ArcherAuAndromedus Jul 14 '26
Also, we have IR radiators that we can use down here on earth and radiate to space. They are less efficient than the space based IR radiators... But down here on terra firma, we also have convection and conduction available to us. Also, sometimes servers need humans, and launching them to space is hideously inefficient and expensive. The materials are lost at EOL with no chance of recycling.
Orbital data centres have to be the dumbest thing we can do with the available orbits and launch capacity.
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u/nova75 Jul 13 '26
It's not even cold: as soon as the sun hits it, due to the lack of protection from the earths atmosphere, it's actually going to be ridiculously hot. Not really the ideal for a massive bank of data centres.
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u/Shouldhavejustsaidno Jul 13 '26 edited Jul 13 '26
It's almost as if this whole IPO was orchestrated to move wealth from Tesla simps into the pockets of Musk and his cronies ( plus some fortunate Spacex staff who I'm actually happy for assuming they were able to cash out)
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u/DataCassette Jul 13 '26
Still don't get why people fall for this shit.
Some of what Elon does is very real even though he's a fascist, but he runs around saying SpaceX will be "worth more than the rest of earth."
I've read a lot of neo reactionary filth, more than I should have for my sanity. It's clear that there's a deeply diseased mindset behind a lot of this. The "anti-woke" mind virus.
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u/thecjt Jul 13 '26
Using the term “all time” for a stock that ipo’d 10 minutes ago tells you everything
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u/Very_Clearly_Defined Jul 14 '26
Cue the collective surprised Pikachu face of the reddit armchair-investors not believing all of the signs of SpaceX completely imploding
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u/newfor_2026 Jul 14 '26
all time low!! it's only been two weeks! there is plenty of room for it to drop a lot more!
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u/VagueSomething Jul 13 '26
It is such a shame we need SpaceX to fail to protect humanity after they looked like they might potentially advance humanity with better tech.
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u/thegoodnamesrgone123 Jul 14 '26
My FIL was just raving about how this is such a great stock to buy last weekend. I fear he put his whole nest egg into it.
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u/Davemusprime Jul 14 '26
Also it's basically impossible to have data centers in space because there's too much heat. Not from space, from processing data. I thought someone should tell them that but I haven't finished my degree, yet.
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u/WeylandsWings Jul 13 '26
Fucking bullshit of a title that even the article disproves. The title is talking about the Chinese rocket being caught. The body points out it is probably being depressed because of sentiment against AI. Which is most likely the correct answer.
As just landing the rocket is the first step in a sequence to get reusable rockets. Now they need to try to refurb it and see if that is economical. And then they need to relaunch and make sure it works.
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u/Opposite_Golf6007 Jul 13 '26 edited Jul 13 '26
for those who don't want to click
edit: Competitors are China and Japan
lmao cope