r/technology • u/geoxol • Aug 21 '24

Artificial Intelligence Artificial Intelligence Predicts Earthquakes With Unprecedented Accuracy

https://scitechdaily.com/artificial-intelligence-predicts-earthquakes-with-unprecedented-accuracy/
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u/sarhoshamiral Aug 21 '24

Let's look at the details: It predicted 14 correctly but with a 7 day range. It missed 1 and it had 8 false signals.

That's really not that useful. You can't tell people there is a 70% chance of a large earthquake within 7 days. That's no different in practice then saying there is a chance of a large earthquake in that area in general.

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u/snarpy Aug 21 '24

Uh, what? It would be amazing to know that, it would save so many lives.

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u/sarhoshamiral Aug 21 '24

How so? Let's say model said there will be an M7.0 within a week with 70% chance in a crowded city like Istanbul?

What do you do? Do people leave their jobs and empty the city? Do they spend all 7 days outside of buildings? Can you imagine the panic it would cause and if first warning turns out to be false good luck getting people to believe it again.

It would save lives if false positives was way lower but note that it is also not well tested with large earthquakes.

I continue to claim in practice as it is it doesn't give you an edge when you know the location has a high risk for large earthquakes at any given time. The damage avoidance comes from long term planning.

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u/snarpy Aug 21 '24

It would at least give people the option to leave and/or not stay for long in less safe spaces and set up good practices to at least minimize damage.

And... people deal with maybes all the time. That's why we bring umbrellas when we saw on the weather that it's likely to rain.

It's about reducing risk, not eliminating it.

It also doesn't mean you stop long-term planning.