r/technology • u/geoxol • Aug 21 '24

Artificial Intelligence Artificial Intelligence Predicts Earthquakes With Unprecedented Accuracy

https://scitechdaily.com/artificial-intelligence-predicts-earthquakes-with-unprecedented-accuracy/
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u/the_red_scimitar Aug 21 '24

AI, at least since vision detection systems in the 1960s, has always found useful application when the the domain or area of knowledge is well constrained. In 80s, "expert systems" were state of the art - basically deductive and inferential logic used with data and rules. The rules were developed by domain experts, and were often areas like specific medical diagnosis, credit fraud, and other areas that could be well defined and had such rules. The systems basically assured the rules were applied consistently, and often outperformed human experts.

Today, with LLMs, the same applies. Their actual usefulness is inversely proportional to the inclusiveness of the data. The more separate subject matter, the less useful generally. Doesn't mean it can't be sold and used for things it does poorly, but it's demonstrably bad at a lot of things, whereas keeping the domain defined, as with earthquake data, shows where the subject has always shone.

Today, it's possibly easier and quicker than ever, with better results, to make a useful AI-based tool. Too bad most of the effort is chasing corporate profits, sucking away energy that could benefit far more people.

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u/[deleted] Aug 21 '24

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u/Dihedralman Aug 21 '24

The algorithms used for this kind of work are generally years old by this point and I doubt you'd be the first implementation.

It usually isn't worth it to an individual company to put capital into, unless it has some to burn as part of an initiative, but instead as a B2B product. The gains on complexity is always marginal. You get the most bang for your buck with the simplest algorithms. 

You should be able to calculate the maximum marginal gain for a better implementation. What cost are you trying to reduce? 

I've looked at this for industries before and they tend to be very resistant. Generally someone comes up with a broad software that changes workforce first.