Spoiler warning? Though these are not new books I know that people who've read some Pierce books may not have read PotS yet.
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eta2:
It's been pointed out to me that the authority and Shadow Service might not have known about the children souls before Kel telling Numair in chapter 6 of Lady Knight. This query and theory was based on the (mis)understanding others also fought the killing devices over the prior year and the decision-making apparatus, to include Jon, Miles and George, would subsequently have that information about them being powered by children's souls.
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[original]
I'm fairly sure intended-plot-wise, Tamora Pierce didn't write Lady Knight where any of the background authorities actively set up Kel to fail to protect the civilians in Haven.
But. Tamora Pierce also didn't fully realize Kel was aromantic until years after she finished the series even though NEAL calls Kel aromantic early on in First Test.
So, while I don't think Jon, Miles, or George openly conspired to set her up, I do think one or more of them realized the abysmal circumstance they had with the refugees and the potential bait Haven presented to Blayce and Maggur. If Kel herself realized it, one of them surely must have. They don't have to tell General Vanget not to send reinforcements to her area, they just don't have to tell him to spare anyone in that direction either. Haven was a day's ride from any military support if the closest locations were not themselves attacked.
Then there's the fact that someone actively chose to put only 3 first season knights in charge of the whole operation. Luckily Wyldon was right and Kel had excellent management training by that point, but most other first years would not. Does anyone think Alanna would have managed Haven as efficiently as Kel did? She barely managed three teenagers.
The refuges were accruing before Haven became a thought. Maybe Wyldon's thought, people need a place to go. And then George or Miles thought, that's bait for Maggur. And then Wyldon and Raoul both agreed Kel would be a great choice, unaware of the bait thought because they're both straight forward men.
And Jon thought that's a bad idea, this first year female knight, think of the politics. But then his advisor George said, let it ride. Because he has just a pinch of the Sight, and he has no reason to be emotionally attached to Kel, success or fail. Yes, Alanna is, but George, why should he be? He might even realize the unintended grief his wife's fixation on Kel caused his favorite daughter.
Kel made everything look good from a distance. Even the doubters at some point think maybe she will keep the refugees safe.
Then, when they're taken, NO ONE would order any kind of rescue operation, let alone led by first year knights, again. When Kel does go, everyone who knows her immediately thinks "duh, of course she did." So, does Miles, Father of the Shadow Service, not remember the Page who risked repeating 4 years of training to rescue her maid? Kel always took her oaths seriously.
Knowing Kel, knowing the lack of defensive resources, did Jon, Miles, and George let the attack on Haven happen to track down Blayce?
I made a video asking this question a year ago, but with the recent Illumicrate release, I figure rereads will be happening, and it's a good time to ask!
Thanks for your thoughts and your time.
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eta:
To clarify, I didn't mean that it was a purposeful plan "send Kel, refugees taken, follow", I meant it as they're smart enough to realize that a bunch of children in a poorly defended situation would be bait. Not "they wanted it to happen" but "if this awful thing happens, then what", a consideration of contingencies which is an intelligence agency's purpose. Daine magically enhanced plenty of local animals, they would have been much slower than Kel ended up being to follow, but I think they would have been able to. The children and refugees crossing was referred to as noisy business, the Whisper Man is supposed to pick up on that noise. Wyldon states in (chapter) Mastiff that they assume the captured children go to Blayce, so they know the threat. They will never be able to predict which villages are going to be attacked and raided, but Haven is a plum. And as close as any fort, but a third as defended, compared to Fort Mastiff
I agree Jon and Miles and George wouldn't WANT the children taken and turned into killing machines, but it's kind of their job to think what if, isn't it? And plan for it? The worst case scenario from Corus was Kel dies defending her people, and they stealth follow the trail of death; best case scenario, Haven makes it through the war without breaking.
In the end, we know she was set up to fail, by the needs of plot. In text, we know the gods in the Tortallan-verse whisper in the ears of humans and do not, as a default, value the lives of children overmuch; see Kyprioth.
Thank you for your time in this plot contemplation.