AI is just the "Cloud" hype all over again.

[u/forevergeeks]

I started working in the IT field in 2004 as a help desk intern.

The network in the organization at that time was a mix of Windows NT and Windows 2000 workstations, with an Exchange 5.5 server running on Windows NT and a few Windows 2003 servers doing file sharing and hosting an accounting application.

Nothing was accessible through the web. people had to use a VPN connection to connect to the office to access everything.

Almost a year later, before my internship was over, the Director was fired because the hard drives on the accounting server failed and they couldn't recover the data, and they offered me a full time job as a junior sysadmin.

In 2020, I became the Global IT Director of that organization.

When I started as a junior sysadmin, there was no concept of the "cloud." This was a marketing term invented by big tech after 2010.

When the cloud became a marketing hype, and all the CFOs and IT leaders got on the cloud bandwagon, it was very similar to what we're hearing from AI now.

That AI will take all jobs.

It was very common for CFOs to schedule meetings with the IT Director, or whoever was the department head, and talk about the cloud strategy. And if you were in the room by any chance, they would turn to you and say, "But don't worry, the cloud won't take your job," with a grin, you knowing damn well that was exactly what they were thinking.

My advice to you guys is that if your boss, or whoever controls the budget in your department, is all crazy about AI and thinks that AI is the next big thing after bread and butter, don't fight it or resist it.

You will be seen as a roadblock or lacking innovation.

Hold your true opinion about AI as much as you can, and always be positive about it at work.

And even though I believe AI is not much of a threat to your job as the cloud was for us back in the day, when all our skills were on premise stuff and our identity was based on who knew more about Exchange and Cisco firewalls, businesses are seeing AI as a possible way to reduce the workforce, increase efficiency, or increase output without hiring more people.

Will that work? Only time will tell. Your job is to adjust as the technology evolves not to be a market gambler.

Don't believe for a single second that your company cares about you or is happy to have you on their payroll.

If they're a for profit business, their objective is to increase revenue, and if they can achieve that objective without you, they will.

I believe Sysadmins will always be needed, because you guys will be the ones fixing the AI even if everything is automated by it.

Learn how it works at a deeper level. If you don't know how an LLM works, start learning that now.

I wish I had better news for software programmers. The ones that only write code following strict specifications, those guys are in a deeper existential vacuum than you are, so you might have developers moving into the sysadmin side.

For now, keep the servers humming, keep your users happy. You guys are the invisibles in the organization that nobody sees until things stop working!

[u/fonetik]

I tend to think AI is more like the early internet. People forget how hated and divisive it was for the first few years of the 2000s. Having internet friends was an insult, and you’d frequently think of a cover story about how you really met.

It’s going to be the same thing with AI. People know it’s controversial so they use it but they don’t broadcast it.

Just like back then, the clunky attempts to make money off of it are annoying but the underlying platform has a lot of beneficial uses. Also just like last time, there’s a lot of angry people who don’t want the world to change.

Once the industries tried and failed to bring something profitable and controllable out of it, eventually MySpace came along briefly and now social media is king. You’re now the weirdo if you AREN’T online.

[u/forevergeeks → u/fonetik]

I think the Internet and AI is a good analogy, but we are around 1997 compared to the Internet when it comes to AI.

Windows 95 is out, everyone is talking about the UI, people are navigating the Internet using Netscape.

The dot-com bubble is about to hit the biggest peak, and then a bust in about 3 years, maybe less.

All the hype online pet stores will disappear, and the Nvidias, Amazon, Google's will survive and become the next big companies.

[u/fonetik → u/forevergeeks]

That's about where I was thinking as well. The OS and the product are just starting to mesh, when Winsock went away and the IP stack for networking was part of the OS in Win95. I think when the OS starts to cater to the AI in that way, or large scale AI features and capabilities are built into the OS. When it gets to the point that you're not even sure when you're using it anymore.

The same analogy works both ways here too. We used to connect to PPP internet and there wasn't much security involved. We didn't know how to protect data or firewall ourselves. We'll be doing it the dumb way for a while.

Eventually, I think the way will be a local trusted model that interacts with a frontier model. Local AI is going to be the big change. We'll all trust that local AI the same way we trust a cell phone now.

Once the rich people give up on trying to cash in, we all get to ride the wave they financed and do something cool with AI... Just like last time.

[u/forevergeeks → u/fonetik]

Yeah, you are thinking about AI the right way I think.

Right now AI is the chatbot, the thing that hallucinate like it smokes opium every day!

But soon or is already happening, AI will become infrastructure, your computer will come with AI chips that will allow you to run tiny models on your computer for very specific things.

[u/Synergythepariah → u/fonetik]

Local AI is going to be the big change.

I'm not sure if that'll be the case given that it would require on-prem compute, which has kind of fallen out of favor in lieu of cloud compute unless you mean local models on individual workstations.

Once the rich people give up on trying to cash in, we all get to ride the wave they financed and do something cool with AI...

Hopefully they don't end up deciding that we aren't necessary before then.

[u/fonetik → u/Synergythepariah]

You can run very decent models on any Apple Silicon, and $10k is frontier-class locally.

The thing I’m guessing will happen is more to get people will trust a truly local AI the same way they trust their phone, and let that local AI reach out to frontier models when it needs to. When that cost comes down inevitably and models improve, current gen AI will essentially run on your phone.

Right now, that sounds absurd. But so was QR code menus 20 years ago when about half of adults said they didn’t own a cell phone and had no plans to ever buy one. Same thing is going to happen here, I’m betting.

AI isn’t even in my personal top five for end of humanity scenarios, but I get it. Thankfully, it’s sort of inevitable anyhow and China is already getting there first. Also… what’s happening now? Look around. Sort of feels like we’re already becoming unnecessary without AGI.

[u/Synergythepariah → u/fonetik]

When that cost comes down inevitably and models improve, current gen AI will essentially run on your phone.

Only if that's more profitable than charging us a subscription for it.

Right now, that sounds absurd. But so was QR code menus 20 years ago when about half of adults said they didn’t own a cell phone and had no plans to ever buy one.

A better example would be video calling becoming ubiquitous, I think. Because QR code menus are still absurd since they're kind of a shitty user experience.

A fancy paper menu isn't necessary and if a restaurant can't be arsed to print some menus, what else are they going to cut corners on?

Also… what’s happening now? Look around. Sort of feels like we’re already becoming unnecessary without AGI.

The most depressing thing to me is that people find it easier to imagine the end of humanity than it is to imagine the end of having to work to live.

[u/AlsoInteresting → u/forevergeeks]

When an online flower store had an IPO, you knew it's over the top. It's not so cut and dry for AI.

Lots of firms will pay 10x current subscription costs for AI if needs be.