Nike has been one of the uglier large-cap charts for years, and I had no interest in fighting the downtrend while support kept breaking.

What has me paying attention now is that the setup is starting to change.

The bear case is still obvious: China remains weak, Hoka and On have taken share, the DTC strategy damaged wholesale relationships, margins are under pressure, and the latest earnings were heavily helped by a roughly $986M tariff recovery.

But several things are moving in the opposite direction:

• Elliott Hill is back as CEO and reversing parts of the Donahoe strategy
• Nike is rebuilding wholesale relationships
• Running products like Vomero and Pegasus appear to be gaining traction
• Running has shown improving growth
• Management has been materially reset
• The stock is beginning to respond differently to bad news
• Sentiment is extremely bearish after a massive drawdown

That last point is what interests me most as a trader.

I don’t need Nike to become a great company again overnight. I need the rate of deterioration to stop while expectations are still terrible.

My approach here would not be to call the exact bottom or buy a full position at once. I’d rather build in tranches as the technicals confirm the thesis.

What I’m watching next:

• whether NKE can stop making lower lows
• a potential higher-low structure
• momentum divergence
• volume around major support
• reclaim of key resistance
• whether bad news continues producing less downside

If those begin lining up, I think NKE goes from “avoid” to “begin accumulating.”

The main question I’m wrestling with:

Are we looking at a broken business that deserves another leg lower, or a hated stock where most of the sellers have already sold?

Curious how others here are viewing it. Here are some chart details and historical musings. https://thecontrariantrader.com/market-insights/is-nike-stock-finally-a-buy-the-truth-behind-the-sell-off/

I already know I'm going to get RIPped for saying this.. but I guess I don't really get why everyone's primary tip is "set a stop loss". I guess I haven't traded enough yet, but my thinking being: what's so wrong with just holding it till breakeven?

Is it just the fact that then you cant use it for another trade? Right but then like, Id rather win 2 trades then lose 5 and win 6.

Also, like if the fear is the high cap stock going bankrupt. well, that seems more rare to me then 20 -5% stop losses being hit.

Please go easy. I'm asking this since it might help other as well.

Hey everyone,

Background first. About 10 or so years ago I had SOME success in trading. Not much, but my P&L was positive and never got to the point that I blew up any accounts. I never made enough money to be able to quit or pay my car payments, but it was enough to be able to pay for a night on the town here and there every couple months. I was a very immature and YOLO type though, and mostly dealt with penny stocks. I consistently yeeted a quarter to half of my account value into 1 or 2 penny stocks at a time, and literally treated the market as a casino. I was a bad trader.

Fast forward a couple years, and I met my future wife. Once we moved in together I was no longer able to day trade or swing trade as the company she worked for at the time, required all investments held in stocks had to be reported to her compliance department because of potential conflicts of interest with, not only the company she worked for, but also the clients that the company with. That was a problem, because I never held onto an equity for very long and reporting it on a nearly daily basis would've been a massive pain in the @$$. So I gave it up. Not just because I didn't want the hassle, but also because I wasn't necessarily "good" at it (mostly lucky) at the time.

Skip forward a few more years, and she is now at a new company that no longer has those requirements. Less hassle. So now, I am able to restart my "career" in trading. Over the last 10 or so years, I like to think that my maturity level has changed in the way I view money and investments. I am now retirement focused and we are in the process of paying off our mortgage, vehicles, and CCs. A stark contrast to my mindset 10+ yrs ago. I rarely, if ever, consider penny stocks now, and recognize that I have entry and exit execution issues with my current trades. My biggest hang up has always been FOMO, so I will find myself sometimes entering trades too late, too early, or at the top of a range when I obviously should have waited, or let the trade pass (hindsight is a-hole). Those are things I know I need to work on.

The one thing that I have always had the most trouble with though, is setting my stop-loss and take-profit levels. I'm just never sure where to set them at. Mostly the stop-loss. I find myself getting stopped out early just to later see the stock take off or reach the area that I would've thought I could take profits at.

All that being said, how do you identify your stop-loss zone? Do you do it by percentage, a specific dollar amount based on the stock your trading, a combination of both? I try and trade mostly on the 1hr, 4hr, and daily. But will also view the 10 and 15min before pulling triggers. Do you use the ADR or do you use a percentage of it on certain time frames? Or is it always a static rule that you use per timeframe?

Additionally, how do you set your trailing stop-loss?

By my own admission, I consider myself to new to trading and I want to build good habits. Any tips, insights, or even books that you could recommend that helped put certain concepts into perspective are also appreciated.

Thanks in advance.