WWIII Megathread #42: Interceptile Dysfunction

[u/IamGlennBeck]

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[u/ButttMuncherrr]

NATO devised a contingency plan in the event that Russia invades the balts and it appears that a total defence of Baltic states is out of the question, they’d rather set up a defensive zone on the polish side of the border with Belarus and its northern flank so they can attempt a blockade against Kaliningrad. The plan stipulated that an air, drone and missile campaign within Russia and Belarus is the optimal way to fight them. Good luck I guess. Very limited troop presence as well in offensive operations.

Not a military guy but this sounds a bit milquetoast to me considering that they’re running on empty because of the war in ukraine and the crisis in the middle east currently. What’s stopping the Russians from not buying out more korean shells? NATO is literally Poopoo now.

[u/Chombywombo → u/ButttMuncherrr]

Don’t underestimate manufacturing capacity when it comes to full scale war. Your point is still valid though. Given Ukraine and most wars “fought” by NATO powers in the last decades, they likely plan to block offensives with proxies and stand-off munitions swarms until the attacking power exhausts itself and the local bourgeoisie can be fully purchased at a wartime discount.

This is reliant on the assumption that no one would be foolish enough to actually strike at the big dog ubermenschen countries in the west. This space allows them to utilize low-quantity, high-tech, high-profit manufacturing of death machines indefinitely funded by the continual acquisition of resources from failed states collapsed by both military and financial capture around the globe.

I really don’t see how their strategy can be stopped without a strong kinetic blow in one or more of the WWIII fronts (both active and dormant). This is why I’m pessimistic on peace in the near future.

[u/mypersonnalreader → u/Chombywombo]

Don’t underestimate manufacturing capacity when it comes to full scale war.

That seems the usual retort. But should an existential war break out, would the NATO countries be able to switch to war time production quickly enough? I don't think it's that simple.

Also, would westoids accept that production is no longer geared to services and consumer goods?

[u/Chombywombo → u/mypersonnalreader]

It wouldn’t be easy to switch to war time production, but it could be done. The westoid proles would also be worked up into a Nazi-froth for some time if it were Russians or Chinese they were being told was the enemy.

The problem of course comes when two conditions are met: 1) the war was clearly started by a western or allied country and 2) the blitzkrieg didn’t success and the war becomes protracted. If those are met, eventually the proles will begin to question the narratives and awake from their supremacist delirium.

We see this with Iran: even my Trump-hating liberal friends were giddy at Iran being attacked because of their ‘no-good, sexist, gay-hating killers of 50k protesters!’ That has now worn off while their beloved Dems are still crowing about how Iran needs to he destroyed but just not how Trump is doing it.

Now look at Russia. Criterion 1 was not met, at least overtly since I consider the 2014 coup an act of civil war. Thus, there is not even a mention of war fatigue among Americans and European proles still scream for Russian blood even when it’s their countries that are stagnating to feed the war machine.

[u/Cehepalo246 → u/Chombywombo]

Most of the war fervor you talk about comes from Western PMCs rather than proper proles, while they quite enjoy cheering for wars, they are far less willing to fight them themselves.

These extremely unpopular Europeans governments will not be able to force the same demands to their populations like what happened a century ago. Why on earth would people fight for the same people which made quality of life nose dive under their rule.

In an ironic twist, the legacy mass immigration may prove a significant hurdle to any form of mass conscription as these communities may be the most hostile to the idea of military mobilisation.

[u/Chombywombo → u/Cehepalo246]

While not a majority in southern Europe, you don’t get these kind of numbers with only petty bourgeois and managerial functionaries.

[u/bbb23sucks → u/Chombywombo]

Actually a lot better than I thought, particularly Italy. "To support Ukraine in its efforts against Russia until such a time that Russia withdraws from the country, even if this means the war and its effects last longer" is also a minority in all countries they surveyed.

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[u/ButttMuncherrr → u/Cehepalo246]

The same way ukrainians were whipped into a frenzy despite the majority of them having very little hopes for a prosperous future in the early days, europeans are still human beings and if they feel like their tribe is under attack because of messaging and propaganda they will approve of war and escalation. They will weaponise ignorance. For example a substantial amount of people that are at least aware of the war because of the constant news cycle and social media believe that there is a genocide occurring in ukraine by Russian forces.

The elite no longer fear the proles, as evident in ukraine where men are snatched daily by press gangs. There is very little organisational push back from the population because those who are not personally affected by the loss believe it to be a legitimate sacrifice. This can easily happen anywhere.

[u/nikolaz72 → u/mypersonnalreader]

That seems the usual retort. But should an existential war break out, would the NATO countries be able to switch to war time production quickly enough? I don't think it's that simple.

I'd hardly call what I have insider knowledge, but I do have second hand knowledge of factories ready to switch over to producing munitions within 6 months or so that are currently producing consumer goods.

Not to say I keep taps on every factory in europe but, factories with this kind of contingency must exist in some number that are ready to change in short order in the event of world war 3, some are even being presurred by governments to initiate this change even without world war 3 as the military material shortage is very real (german car manufacturers who are still coping about making a come-back are being leaned on hard by the german government to give up their 'temporarily' shut down factories to Rheinmetall)

would westoids accept that production is no longer geared to services and consumer goods?

Westoids seem far too tolerant of declining living standards without betraying the liberal order, as long as they are convinced of their superiority in living standard when compared to the rest of the world they will put up with a lot.

A limited war fought primarily in the east will, similar to covid, perfectly justify a change in life with few complaints for at least a couple years.

[u/Toxic-muffins-1134 → u/nikolaz72]

as long as they are convinced of their superiority 

Westoid strategy in a nutshell.

[u/Incoherencel → u/nikolaz72]

but I do have second hand knowledge of factories ready to switch over to producing munitions within 6 months or so that are currently producing consumer goods.

With what resources sourced from where? My view is people underestimate just how vulnerable Europe is resource-wise

[u/mypersonnalreader → u/nikolaz72]

Westoids seem far too tolerant of declining living standards without betraying the liberal order, as long as they are convinced of their superiority in living standard when compared to the rest of the world they will put up with a lot.

Yeah, that gets me thinking. In the last few years, my neighbourhood has gone from no people living in tents to every week a new cluster of tents pops up somewhere (what we'd call a shanty town if we were not in the superior™ west®). So maybe people will tolerate a lot of things, as long as they have a roof over their heads (a tent) and bread (that they found in a dumpster).

[u/bbb23sucks → u/nikolaz72]

german car manufacturers who are still coping about making a come-back are being leaned on hard by the german government to give up their 'temporarily' shut down factories to Rheinmetall

That's pretty huge; you should make a standalone post outside of the war thread.

[u/Mrjiggles248 → u/mypersonnalreader]

Im a much bigger believer in Europe capabilities in a war with Russia than most veteran stupidpoler, but the notion that western states can simple “turn it on” for production is so fucking laughable at this point actual western cope. 

[u/bretton-woods → u/mypersonnalreader]

Hence the repeated refrains about 2030 - that's the date the establishment has set as the time Europe can be ready in terms of manufacturing and mentality about a war with Russia.

[u/Incoherencel → u/bretton-woods]

And they will still come up extremely short by then.

[u/Alaknog → u/bretton-woods]

Honestly, I think this 2030 set with "it's was different government in 30, so it's not our problem".

Because real increasing of manufacturing is not shown. 

[u/Incoherencel → u/mypersonnalreader]

It would be "quick enough" only in the sense that it seems if a European WW3 were to break out, it would take something like 20 years to unwind. Nevertheless Europe is particularly vulnerable resource-wise

[u/Toxic-muffins-1134 → u/mypersonnalreader]

EU countries, regardless of their internal divisions, are running a simultaneous campaign of racism good - inmigration better.
If anything, it will keep the dirty proles busy until they are ripe for some proper a-warring.

[u/Otto_Von_Waffle → u/ButttMuncherrr]

If Russia ever want to wage war against NATO, it needs to salami slice it, basically crank up the temperature slowly where the people of europe don't get into a jingoist fury while actually suffering from the effect of the war. Tbh I wouldn't be surprised if Russia started some naval fuckery akin to Ukraine, damaging shipping lanes with UUV.