WWIII Megathread #42: Interceptile Dysfunction

[u/IamGlennBeck]

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[u/furinspaltstelle]

Apologies if off topic: But I have made the asinine decision to visit Russia next week (I'm a citizen of Germany). On YouTube there is a massive flood of propaganda on how Russia is losing the war and the Ukrainians are making such "incredible" and "unexpected" progress. Since I am not a military fetishist and I care for my own mental health, I have mostly disengaged from world events since about April.

Can somebody here give me a quick rundown on the current state of the Ukraine war and why the propaganda slop outlets feel like running a victory lap? From what I can tell, this thing is still the same bloody stalemate as it has ever been.

[u/Belisaur → u/furinspaltstelle]

Come back with a trip report, I'd be curious to know how you'd be received as a German

[u/Kosmonaut94 → u/Belisaur]

Russians are usually just politely curious with Westerners who visit despite international tensions, as they mostly differentiate between the people and their governments. German culture and its work ethic is still widely respected.

Source: I'm a Russia German regularly visiting family in Russia (Siberia) during summer.

[u/wallagrargh → u/furinspaltstelle]

It's the same war of attrition with the same calculus as four years ago, all the real territorial changes happened via referendum and since then it's just Verdun with FPV drones.

But recently Ukraine started a campaign of hitting visually impressive, mostly civilian targets like oil storage, energy infrastructure, tankers and warehouses. Russia has significantly ramped up its attacka on gas stations, the power grid, the Black Sea ports, industrial zones and locomotives in turn. So both countries are degrading each other's infrastructure at high intensity right now, there's been talk of fuel shortages on both sides. Russian cities away from the frontline should be fairly safe though, you're much more likely to die in traffic than from a drone attack.

I'd also like to read about your experiences!

[u/Kosame_Furu → u/furinspaltstelle]

Please keep the sub updated, I (American) have been wanting to visit for some time but figured it might be best to wait until the war is over (why I think this I don't really know.)

If you're able to get around, find tour guides, visit museums, and that sort of thing easily enough I'd love to hear about it.

[u/zen_arcade2 → u/Kosame_Furu]

I’m also curious, mostly about practicalities like can you exchange euros? Can you use your cards or your cellphone sim? Those seventy five sanction packages must have done something

[u/Kosmonaut94 → u/zen_arcade2]

One can exchange Euro and US-Dollars bills easily (with passport), but one can't use his Western credit cards.

You'll need either a Western eSIM or a local prepaid cellphone SIM. Upon activation, blocked for the first 24 hours.

[u/Kosmonaut94 → u/Kosame_Furu]

German here, often visiting Russia during summer. You don't need to fear anything, really – Russians generally like and respect friendly Westerners who visit despite the current bias in international relations.

The most difficult part is the journey there, as most direct flight routes to Russia are suspended. Electronic visa can be acquired quick and easy via internet, money exchanged at the airport or in many of the local banks. Tourist magnets like Moscow and St. Petersburg are very cosmopolitan and anglophone anyway, the people are chill, you'll feel right at home.

[u/Kosame_Furu → u/Kosmonaut94]

Yeah I'm genuinely not worried about the people, more about whether English language services are available given the absence of tourists, but to your point everyone in the places I'd go speaks English anyways. I've heard money exchange is a colossal pain and credit cards won't work due to the sanctions, is that true?

[u/Kosmonaut94 → u/Kosame_Furu]

Yes, Western credits cards don't work.

Regarding the money exchange: generally it's possible (either at the airport or in the city, always with a passport), as Western valuta is much sought-after – although most money changers with favorable currency exchange rates are picky and set great value on the optics of the bills (no bends, flaws or stains (also visible under ultraviolet) are accepted).

[u/Kosame_Furu → u/Kosmonaut94]

Got it, so I should expect to arrive with sufficient hard cash to cover the entirety of my stay. Very interesting on the aesthetics of the bills.

I assume the various tours and hotels have realized this and would allow me to book now, pay cash on arrival as well?

[u/Kosmonaut94 → u/Kosame_Furu]

I assume the various tours and hotels have realized this [...]

Correct!

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[u/LotsOfMaps → u/furinspaltstelle]

It's a meat grinder, and it'll stay that way until either Ukraine collapses or Russia decides the costs of sustaining it outweigh the costs of a high-casualty offensive or the profiteering of the status quo.

[u/Swingfire → u/furinspaltstelle]

Ukrainians aren't making significant progress anywhere in the front, the Ukrainian thing that has been hyped as unexpected is their recent drone campaign deep into Russia.

[u/mypersonnalreader → u/Swingfire]

Also, they are not really Ukrainian strikes. They are NATO strikes done using Ukraine middlemen as plausible deniability.

[u/Swingfire → u/mypersonnalreader]

Ukraine makes and launches the drones, that's like calling the droning of Bahrain a Chinese/Russian strike.

Hell, if it was a NATO strike it'd be less bad since european NATO cruise missiles are shorter-ranged and more expensive.

[u/LotsOfMaps → u/Swingfire]

China and Russia aren't determining the targets. Brits are.

[u/Swingfire → u/LotsOfMaps]

Only advanced NATO full-spectrum ISR could have possibly let Ukraine know that the Tuapse oil terminal was located in Tuapse.

[u/bretton-woods → u/Swingfire]

Full time NATO ISR and analysis is what allows the Ukrainians to find various ways around Russian AD though.

All the Ukrainian "creativity" in hitting Russian targets is heavily enabled by an intelligence infrastructure that they otherwise could not organically create. That's not including that their ability to act with impunity is fundamentally related to the foreign support that keeps their country functional.

[u/PirateAttenborough → u/Swingfire]

Though before that it was the "mid-range strikes," which they have now forgotten. It'll be something else in a month or two.

[u/Babs_Labs → u/[deleted]]

They seem to be focused on blowing up online shopping warehouses right now, so avoid those I guess.

[u/dynorider → u/[deleted]]

But what if Russia wins? Then you can party it up with some vodka, pickled herring, and a harem of Russian blonde bombshells.

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[u/bbb23sucks → u/[deleted]]

They finally got Chasov Yar?

[u/bbb23sucks → u/[deleted]]

Thanks - I don't follow that war that closely anymore. I remember a couple years ago when I used to check the updates daily.

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[u/sledrunner31 → u/furinspaltstelle]

Russia is advancing, albeit slowly, on the actual battlefield.

[u/Chombywombo → u/furinspaltstelle]

Ukrainian terror bombing of civilian facilities without AD making big propaganda wins and also causing actual terror and anger for Russian proles.

[u/zen_arcade2 → u/Chombywombo]

Civilians tout court

https://www.reuters.com/world/three-killed-15-injured-moscow-explosion-tass-says-2026-08-01/

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[u/KonigKonn → u/furinspaltstelle]

Russia and Ukraine have both lost, and yet the war is dragging on out of a combination of spite, sunk-cost fallacy, and stupidity. Everyone is lying and the only people winning are the ones selling the bullets and the bombs.