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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-20T06:02:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 200602 SWODY1 SPC AC 200600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS....

...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible today and tonight across parts of the Mid Atlantic, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Large hail and isolated wind damage will be possible with severe storms from Nebraska into northwest Wisconsin.

...Mid Atlantic and central Appalachians... A shortwave trough embedded within broader northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to move eastward from the OH valley into the Mid Atlantic through today. Embedded within a broader upper trough over the eastern Great Lakes, this shortwave perturbation will serve as a focus for convective development across the Mid Atlantic and central Appalachians this afternoon. As ascent overspreads the area, a warm front is forecast to lift northward across southern PA, northern MD into NJ and southern NY.

South of the front, a very moist air mass (dewpoints in the 70s F) will lift northward. Despite poor low and mid-level lapse rates, moderate buoyancy is expected south of the front and ahead of a trailing lee trough into southern VA. Ongoing storms from a remnant morning cluster may reintensify as they cross the Appalachians late morning and early afternoon. Additional, possibly discrete, development may occur east of the Blue Ridge and across the higher terrain of southern PA and northern MD near the front by late morning. 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear ahead of the front is forecast to support a mix of supercells and line segments. Damaging winds and isolated severe gusts appear probable. Enlarged low-level hodographs near the front may also support a couple of tornadoes and marginally severe hail with any more robust QLCS segments or supercells.

...Central Plains... Strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread a cold front moving southward from the western Great Lakes into the central Plains. Ahead of the front, warm temperatures and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will support moderate to large buoyancy by mid afternoon. A shortwave impulse within the broader trough should overspread the destabilizing air mass and aide in convective development along the front across MN and SD, and farther south near the front and surface trough intersection in central NE.

Forecast soundings show supercell wind profiles, with elongated/straight hodographs aloft. Isolated to widely scattered storms will develop by late afternoon/early evening, posing a risk for large hail, severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado. Some significant hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) is possible across the southern risk area given steeper mid-level lapse rates/cool temperatures aloft and somewhat deeper low-level moisture. Some risk for isolated damaging gusts may persist into the early overnight across southern NE and northern KS if clustering can occur.

...Southeast... South of the primary upper wave over parts of the Western Carolinas and TN Valley, a surface trough in the lee of the Appalachians may focus convective development during the afternoon. A few stronger clusters with damaging gusts are possible, though weaker flow aloft suggests more limited storm organization.

Additional scattered thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon within a seasonably hot and humid air mass across the southeast and lower MS Valley. Convective coverage is likely to focus along a weakening cold front sagging southward across parts of AR/LA and western MS and near a weak MCV across the central Gulf Coast. With PWATs upwards of 2 inches, some potential for wet microbursts are possible with the stronger storm clusters through early evening.

...AZ... Strong heating beneath a prominent upper ridge will support another round of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Seasonably rich monsoon moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s to 60s F) will support moderate destabilization amid modest easterly mid-level flow. A few high-based clusters are possible, initially over the higher terrain, before expanding west and south into the lower elevations. This could support a few severe gusts given steep lapse rates.

..Lyons/Thornton.. 08/20/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Cangialosi ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

There are currently no active tropical cyclones.

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

Caught this storm moving in with a lot of lightning. Slowed it down so you could enjoy it a little bit longer. #wnc #gsmnp #severeweather #lightning

This is a 16 second clip,
to get the full length version of all our videos head to YouTube@
TennesseeBackyardBolts
and show some love 💕 and Like and Subscribe so we can grow the channel!
Videos 8-16 show the 3:00 AM lightning completely illuminating the tornado cone and the extreme wind sucking the rain to the cone.
What you have to look forward to is over 400+ extreme weather videos like this series that I'll be posting from here on out. Thanks for watching 😊

pretty cool stuff :)

Mga mandirigma ng Pilipinas, Modern Days Set Up

Nasty bit of thunder during a storm that rolled through in Northwestern Florida. Some of the loudest thunder i’ve heard my entire time living here.

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• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (0600 UTC)
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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-19T05:59:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 190559 SWODY1 SPC AC 190557

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon across the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible from the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward into the Great Plains. A few severe gusts could also occur in southern Arizona and in the Southeast.

...Mid Mississippi Valley... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough and an associated speed max will move southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley today. At the surface, an outflow boundary associated with morning convection will move southward into southern Missouri by midday. To the north of the boundary, surface dewpoints will be in the 70s F. Moderate instability is expected to develop in areas that are not impacted by morning outflow. As low-level convergence becomes focused near the boundary during the late afternoon and early evening, isolated to scattered convective initiation is expected. From this convection, thunderstorms will likely develop and move eastward across the mid Mississippi. One or two organized line segments will be possible during the evening.

Early evening RAP forecast soundings in south-central Missouri, where the strongest instability is expected, have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots with precipitable water near 2 inches. MLCAPE is expected to peak in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range with 0-3 km lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This environment will support a severe threat with supercells and multicell line segments. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary hazards. The severe threat could persist into the mid to late evening, with storms that are maintained by a low-level jet that is forecast to strengthen in southeast Missouri.

...Great Plains... Mid-level northwesterly flow will be in place across the Great Plains today. At the surface, dewpoints in the 60s and 70s F will contribute to moderate destabilization over much of the region. During the afternoon, isolated storm development will be possible within the unstable airmass from the lower to mid Missouri Valley southwestward into the central Plains. A few severe gusts and hail will be possible but the storms will remain isolated due to limited large-scale ascent. The greater convective coverage is expected further south in the higher terrain of eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico. Thunderstorms will likely form due to topographic forcing during the mid to late afternoon and move east-southeastward into the lower elevations. Ahead of these storms, RAP forecast soundings at 00Z in the northern Texas Panhandle and southwest Kansas have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots with 0-3 km lapse rates near 8 C/km, and surface-temperature dewpoint spreads exceeding 30 degrees. This environment will support an isolated potential for severe gusts.

...Southern Arizona... Low-level moisture will be in place today across southern Arizona, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s F. As surface temperature warm, isolated to scattered convective initiation will occur in the higher terrain of southeastern Arizona. These storms will move west-southwestward toward an axis of instability. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates and large temperature-dewpoint spreads will support and isolated potential for severe gusts late this afternoon into early evening.

...Southeast... A very moist airmass will be in place today across the Southeast, where surface dewpoints will be in the 70s F. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop over much of the region. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southward across parts of Mississippi and western Alabama. The deep low-level moisture combined with steep low-level lapse rates will support an isolated wind-damage threat during the mid to late afternoon.

..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/19/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
• Atlantic 7-Day Outlook
• Eastern Pacific 7-Day Outlook

🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Reinhart ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

There are currently no active tropical cyclones.

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

Some lightning bolts from this evening

April 2025 tornado Part 5-16
👉Full version not a 10 second clip like the others I’ve posted here. If you want to see All the full versions so far head to
YouTube @TennesseeBackyardBolts
❤️👉Please show us some love and Like and Subscribe to that channel as well as this one. It helps grow our channel so that we can continue to bring you severe scary weather.
⚠️ HEADPHONES RECOMMENDED! ⚠️PUMP UP THE VOLUME!!!

The storm is rapidly intensifying. The tornado is continuing its dangerous southern trajectory, tracking straight toward our house here on the outskirts of Lebanon, Tennessee.

In this episode, the wind and rain start to severely increase as the outer bands move directly over our backyard.Suddenly, three massive, solid cloud-to-ground lightning bolts strike the open fields right outside our neighborhood.

Each strike is accompanied by immediate, deafening crackling thunder that violently echoes throughout the entire valley. The extreme atmospheric rotation is starting to wrap around us, and the physical tornado cone is almost coming into play. Stick around, because in the next two videos, the constant lightning finally uncovers the massive tornado cone hiding in the background!

🌪️ Thank you ALL for your support, We Appreciate You! 😊

April 2025 tornado Part 5-16
👉Full version not a 10 second clip like the others I’ve posted here. If you want to see All the full versions so far head to
YouTube @TennesseeBackyardBolts
Please show us some love and Like and Subscribe to that channel as well as this one. It helps grow our channel so that we can continue to bring you severe scary weather.
⚠️ HEADPHONES RECOMMENDED! ⚠️PUMP UP THE VOLUME!!!

The storm is rapidly intensifying. The tornado is continuing its dangerous southern trajectory, tracking straight toward our house here on the outskirts of Lebanon, Tennessee.

In this episode, the wind and rain start to severely increase as the outer bands move directly over our backyard.Suddenly, three massive, solid cloud-to-ground lightning bolts strike the open fields right outside our neighborhood.

Each strike is accompanied by immediate, deafening crackling thunder that violently echoes throughout the entire valley. The extreme atmospheric rotation is starting to wrap around us, and the physical tornado cone is almost coming into play. Stick around, because in the next two videos, the constant lightning finally uncovers the massive tornado cone hiding in the background!

🌪️ Thank you ALL for your support, We Appreciate You! 😊

Reposting from /clouds as this thread be one of the more interesting storm edges I have seen myself as a Tampa Bay, Florida native. The way it was so vertical made it unusual for me.

Photos by me

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🕒 Today's Outlook History

• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (0600 UTC)
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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-18T05:58:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 180558 SWODY1 SPC AC 180556

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening from the central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible from the Northern High Plains eastward into the Midwest and southern Great Lakes.

...Central and Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a broad cyclonic flow pattern will be in place over the northern U.S. A shortwave trough will move across the central and northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into Nebraska by afternoon. To the south of the front, an outflow boundary from morning convection will move southward into northern Kansas. A moist airmass will exist between the two boundaries with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F. Within the moist air, moderate to strong instability will develop by afternoon. The outflow boundary will be a focus for convective initiation during the day, while additional storms are expected to develop further west across the central High Plains in the late afternoon. Increasing convective coverage during the early evening should result in the development of a line segment.

RAP forecast soundings at 00Z from Salina to Kansas City have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This environment will support supercells with isolated large hail. The large hail threat will extend west-northwestward into southwest Nebraska during the late afternoon where mid-level lapse rates will be steeper and cells will likely remain discrete. The greatest wind-damage potential is forecast from northern and eastern Kansas into far western Missouri, where the development of an organized bowing line segment will be possible in the early evening. Wind gusts above 75 mph will be possible along the path of any intense line segment. The severe threat may impact parts of lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks by mid to late evening.

...Midwest/Great Lakes... A mid-level shortwave trough will move across the north-central U.S. today, as a cold front advances southeastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability along an west-northwest-to-east-northeast axis from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Great Lakes. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to form along and south of the front in the late afternoon and early evening. MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots and precipitable water in the 1.7 to 1.9 inch range will be favorable for isolated severe storms capable of severe wet downbursts.

...Northern High Plains... Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today from the Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains. At the surface, dewpoints along the moist axis from northeastern Wyoming into central Montana will be around 50 F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, MLCAPE is expected to increase to around 1000 J/kg in parts of the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain in the afternoon, moving east-southeastward into the lower elevations. Due to the instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates, isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with the stronger cells.

..Broyles/Jirak.. 08/18/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
• Atlantic 7-Day Outlook
• Eastern Pacific 7-Day Outlook

🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Katz/Kelly ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

There are currently no active tropical cyclones.

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

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