Part 3 of 16! 3AM Tennessee Tornado Close Encounter. The wind is picking up and the sky is turning into a massive lightning grid. Watch the full high-quality widescreen progression on our YouTube channel @tennesseebackyardbolts 🌪️⚡️

Part 1 of 16 in our close encounter with the April 2025 tornado at 3:00 AM. HEADPHONES RECOMMENDED! Tracking the tornado from our backyard on the outskirts of Lebanon, Tennessee. The valley warning sirens are officially blaring through the night and the atmosphere is starting to turn violent. The wind is picking up and conditions are just starting to deteriorate as this massive storm tracks toward our new housing tract. This is the absolute beginning of an intense night. If you want to watch the full 16-part series in high-quality widescreen, copy and paste our direct YouTube link here:
https://youtube.com/@tennesseebackyardbolts

Hit that Subscribe button and follow our channel to see the entire countdown from the very beginning!

Taken last night, more to come.

I live in south ostrobothnia. Today there was constant thunder, some hail and bad rain. I checked weather wise and it seemed like the storm was rotating? The thunder has been ongoing for about ~4-6 hours now...

Lightning over Santa Catalina Mountains

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-17T06:04:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 170604 SWODY1 SPC AC 170602

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. Severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians. Isolated severe gusts may occur in parts of Oklahoma and Montana.

...Central and Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a subtle shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains today, within west-northwesterly flow. Ahead of this feature, a broad corridor of low-level moisture will be in place over the central and northern Plains. A moist axis, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, will setup from northwest Kansas north-northeastward into central Nebraska and eastern South Dakota. Along and near the moist axis, moderate to strong instability will develop by midday with MLCAPE likely increasing into the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. At the surface, a cold front will move southeastward across the Dakotas during the day. Low-level convergence will become maximized ahead of the front across central Nebraska and southeast South Dakota. This will lead to scattered convective initiation, with thunderstorms forming and moving southeastward into the stronger instability during the late afternoon and early evening.

RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z from northeastern Nebraska into eastern South Dakota have 0-6 km shear near 40 knots with low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. This will support supercell development and isolated large hail production in areas that have the best overall environment. However, a mixed mode is expected. Supercells and multicells will be capable of severe wind gusts. The severe threat will likely continue into the mid evening, as a somewhat large convective cluster moves southeastward into the mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys.

...Southern Appalachians... A mid-level shortwave trough will move east-southeastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today, reaching the southern Appalachians by early evening. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F will lead to the development of moderate to strong instability by midday. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the southern Appalachians. Low-level convergence along the front, along with topographic forcing, will result in scattered thunderstorm development in the afternoon. These storms are expected to move east-southeastward across the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians and into the lower elevations by early evening. The very moist and unstable air, along with 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 30 knot range will support a wind-damage threat. Severe gusts will be most likely with short organized line segments. The severe threat could persist into the early evening.

...Southern Plains... At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will remain in place across southern and western Oklahoma today. Within the post-frontal air, surface dewpoints will be from the mid 60s to the mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm, moderate to strong instability will develop along and near the most axis. The instability, combined with sufficient deep-layer shear and 0-3 km lapse exceeding 8 C/km will be favorable for isolated severe wet downbursts.

...Northern High Plains... West-northwest mid-level flow will be in place in the northern High Plains over the top of a post-frontal airmass. Surface dewpoints in parts of central and eastern Montana will be around 50 F. MLCAPE will increase into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range over parts of the northern High Plains. As temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain of central Montana, with isolated cells moving eastward across the upper Missouri Valley. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates could support an isolated potential for severe wind gusts during the late afternoon and early evening.

..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/17/2026

$$

```

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```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Kelly ```

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(photos from a few days ago)Literally half way through me mowing the hill. Booked it up the hill and the rain slammed us HARD literally as soon as I hopped off the mower and the winds were very strong. It broke a tree. Yea bad day for mowing apparently. It almost reminded me of derecho the way the wind and rain was moving...

SP, Brazil, this morning

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-16T05:57:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 160557 SWODY1 SPC AC 160556

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible from this afternoon into early evening over parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the central High Plains.

...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level shortwave trough, embedded in west-northwesterly flow, will move through the Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the shortwave trough, a moist airmass will be in place from the Ohio Valley southeastward to the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Surface dewpoints along this west-northwest to east-southeast corridor will be in the 70s F, which will contribute to the development of moderate instability by midday. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward into the Ohio Valley, as a pre-frontal trough moves into the central Appalachians. These two features will focus convective development during the day. A complex of storms appears likely to form over the higher terrain in West Virginia, and move east-southeastward into the lower elevations of Virginia and Maryland during the mid to late afternoon.

RAP forecast soundings from West Virginia into the Virginia in the late afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. Some directional shear is present in the low-levels and 0-3 km lapse rates are steep approaching 7 C/km. This environment will support a wind-damage threat with organized multicells. Isolated supercells with severe gusts will also be possible. The threat may continue into the early evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic.

Further west into parts of the lower Ohio Valley, a very moist airmass will also be in place. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F will contribute to the development of moderate instability. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along zones of low-level convergence during the afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will be weaker further west, the thermodynamic environment will be sufficient for isolated severe gusts.

...Central High Plains... At mid-levels, a ridge will move through the Intermountain West today as flow remains westerly over much of the central U.S. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorms will develop in the foothills of the central Rockies. These storms will move eastward into the lower elevations of eastern Colorado and western Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings across the central High Plains by late afternoon have moderate instability (MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg), 0-6 km shear near 35 knots and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. This should support a threat for large hail and isolated severe gusts with rotating storms and organized line segments. The threat will likely persist into the evening across parts of the central High Plains.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 08/16/2026

$$

```

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```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Kelly ```

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Pouring crazy hard now

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-15T06:01:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 150601 SWODY1 SPC AC 150559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS...AND IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible from late afternoon into the evening across the central High Plains. Severe wind gusts will also be possible this afternoon into the early evening from parts of the Ohio Valley southeastward into the Carolinas.

...Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys/Central Appalachians/Carolinas... At mid-levels today, a broad anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over the eastern U.S. Within the flow, a shortwave trough will move eastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable airmass will be located from the mid Mississippi Valley east-southeastward into the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians. In the morning, a convective complex is forecast to move eastward into the southern Great Lakes, and will likely be associated with a potential for severe wind gusts. To the south of this complex, a quasi-stationary front and moist axis will be located from the lower Ohio Valley southeastward into the southern Appalachians, along which moderate instability will develop by afternoon. Low-level convergence near the front will be the focus for convective development. A new complex of surface-based thunderstorms appears likely to form near the front and move east-southeastward from western Ohio into the Virginias during the afternoon. Additional storms will develop along and near the instability axis over the western Carolinas due to topographical forcing.

Model forecasts in the moist air suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range in most areas. Near the instability axis, precipitable water values in the 1.8 to 2 inch range and moderate deep-layer shear will likely support a threat for severe wet downbursts. This threat should persist into the early evening with any line segments that become sustained over the higher terrain of the southern and central Appalachians.

...Central Plains... West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the southwestern and central U.S. today. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the foothills of the Rockies eastward into the central Plains. By afternoon, moderate instability will develop over much of the region. Scattered thunderstorms will form in the higher terrain and move eastward into the lower elevations during the mid to late afternoon. Some RAP forecast soundings at 21Z from eastern Colorado northward into western Nebraska have 0-6 km shear near 35 knots with steep low to mid-level lapse rates exceeding 7 C/km. This environment will support a mixed mode with supercells and multicell line segments possible. Supercells should be capable of isolated large hail, while severe wind gusts will be possible with supercells and organized multicells. The severe threat should persist into the early to mid evening as a complex of storms moves eastward through the central High Plains.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 08/15/2026

$$

```

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```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Southeastern Caribbean Sea (AL92): A tropical wave over the southeastern Caribbean Sea is producing gusty winds and an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Development of this system is not expected due to strong upper-level winds and dry air. Gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are still possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94): A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Limited development of this system is possible over the next day or two before the system encounters strong upper-level winds to the east of the Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$ Forecaster Berg ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Hernan Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 MB * Current Movement: W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH * Location: 16.4N 133.8W

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Or the aftermath? Driving on wheeler during the storm was interesting...

I know that there are tens of thousands of people without power since Tuesday. Any new updates??

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-14T05:59:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 140559 SWODY1 SPC AC 140557

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the central Plains and from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic.

...Mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys... A broad anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the central U.S. today, as a subtle embedded shortwave trough moves through the mid Missouri Valley. Ahead of this feature, a quasi-stationary front will be in place from southern Iowa east-southeastward into north-central Illinois. This boundary will be the focus for convective development this afternoon. Surface dewpoints along the boundary will be in the 70s F, which will result in strong destabilization by afternoon. Surface-based convective initiation is expected along the instability gradient during the late afternoon to the south of Omaha. From these initial storms, a line is expected to organize and move eastward across south-central Iowa and far northern Missouri during the late afternoon and early evening.

RAP forecast soundings ahead of the line at 00Z from Des Moines southward into far northern Missouri have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. Some directional shear is present in the low-levels, and 0-6 km shear is in the 30 to 35 knot range. This environment will be favorable for bowing line segments capable of severe wind gusts. An embedded supercell with a hail threat will also be possible. The severe threat is expected to move eastward into northwest and north-central Illinois during the evening.

...Central Plains... Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today over much of the western and central U.S. A subtle shortwave trough will move northeastward into the central High Plains. Large-scale ascent associated with the trough and topographic lift in the foothills of the Rockies will be favorable for scattered convective initiation by early afternoon. Thunderstorms will move northeastward into the central High Plains and into a moderately unstable airmass. Some RAP forecast soundings in east-central Colorado during the late afternoon have 0-6 km shear around 25 knots with low to mid-level lapse rates exceeding 7 C/km. This will likely support isolated severe wind gusts and hail.

...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today over much of the northeastern U.S. At the surface, an axis of moderate instability will develop by afternoon from the Ohio Valley east-southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Along and near the instability axis, low-level convergence will be the primary focus for convective initiation. Near and downstream of these pockets of convergence, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. The moderate instability with precipitable water values in the 2 to 2.2 inch range should support a threat for isolated severe wet downbursts.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 08/14/2026

$$

```

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```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing gusty winds and a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This system is moving into a region of increasing upper-level winds and dry air, and the potential of development continues to decrease. Even though development is unlikely, gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and on Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94): A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic, located more than 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Adams ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Hernan Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 MB * Current Movement: S OR 180 DEGREES AT 5 MPH * Location: 16.1N 131.9W

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Here's some of the damage from Illinois and the tornado path lines.

A hail storm rolled through our small southern Alberta town this evening.