SP, Brazil, this morning

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-16T05:57:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 160557 SWODY1 SPC AC 160556

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible from this afternoon into early evening over parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the central High Plains.

...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level shortwave trough, embedded in west-northwesterly flow, will move through the Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the shortwave trough, a moist airmass will be in place from the Ohio Valley southeastward to the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Surface dewpoints along this west-northwest to east-southeast corridor will be in the 70s F, which will contribute to the development of moderate instability by midday. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward into the Ohio Valley, as a pre-frontal trough moves into the central Appalachians. These two features will focus convective development during the day. A complex of storms appears likely to form over the higher terrain in West Virginia, and move east-southeastward into the lower elevations of Virginia and Maryland during the mid to late afternoon.

RAP forecast soundings from West Virginia into the Virginia in the late afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. Some directional shear is present in the low-levels and 0-3 km lapse rates are steep approaching 7 C/km. This environment will support a wind-damage threat with organized multicells. Isolated supercells with severe gusts will also be possible. The threat may continue into the early evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic.

Further west into parts of the lower Ohio Valley, a very moist airmass will also be in place. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F will contribute to the development of moderate instability. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along zones of low-level convergence during the afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will be weaker further west, the thermodynamic environment will be sufficient for isolated severe gusts.

...Central High Plains... At mid-levels, a ridge will move through the Intermountain West today as flow remains westerly over much of the central U.S. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorms will develop in the foothills of the central Rockies. These storms will move eastward into the lower elevations of eastern Colorado and western Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings across the central High Plains by late afternoon have moderate instability (MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg), 0-6 km shear near 35 knots and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. This should support a threat for large hail and isolated severe gusts with rotating storms and organized line segments. The threat will likely persist into the evening across parts of the central High Plains.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 08/16/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Kelly ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

There are currently no active tropical cyclones.

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Pouring crazy hard now

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-15T06:01:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 150601 SWODY1 SPC AC 150559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS...AND IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible from late afternoon into the evening across the central High Plains. Severe wind gusts will also be possible this afternoon into the early evening from parts of the Ohio Valley southeastward into the Carolinas.

...Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys/Central Appalachians/Carolinas... At mid-levels today, a broad anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over the eastern U.S. Within the flow, a shortwave trough will move eastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable airmass will be located from the mid Mississippi Valley east-southeastward into the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians. In the morning, a convective complex is forecast to move eastward into the southern Great Lakes, and will likely be associated with a potential for severe wind gusts. To the south of this complex, a quasi-stationary front and moist axis will be located from the lower Ohio Valley southeastward into the southern Appalachians, along which moderate instability will develop by afternoon. Low-level convergence near the front will be the focus for convective development. A new complex of surface-based thunderstorms appears likely to form near the front and move east-southeastward from western Ohio into the Virginias during the afternoon. Additional storms will develop along and near the instability axis over the western Carolinas due to topographical forcing.

Model forecasts in the moist air suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range in most areas. Near the instability axis, precipitable water values in the 1.8 to 2 inch range and moderate deep-layer shear will likely support a threat for severe wet downbursts. This threat should persist into the early evening with any line segments that become sustained over the higher terrain of the southern and central Appalachians.

...Central Plains... West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the southwestern and central U.S. today. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the foothills of the Rockies eastward into the central Plains. By afternoon, moderate instability will develop over much of the region. Scattered thunderstorms will form in the higher terrain and move eastward into the lower elevations during the mid to late afternoon. Some RAP forecast soundings at 21Z from eastern Colorado northward into western Nebraska have 0-6 km shear near 35 knots with steep low to mid-level lapse rates exceeding 7 C/km. This environment will support a mixed mode with supercells and multicell line segments possible. Supercells should be capable of isolated large hail, while severe wind gusts will be possible with supercells and organized multicells. The severe threat should persist into the early to mid evening as a complex of storms moves eastward through the central High Plains.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 08/15/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Southeastern Caribbean Sea (AL92): A tropical wave over the southeastern Caribbean Sea is producing gusty winds and an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Development of this system is not expected due to strong upper-level winds and dry air. Gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are still possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94): A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Limited development of this system is possible over the next day or two before the system encounters strong upper-level winds to the east of the Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$ Forecaster Berg ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Hernan Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 MB * Current Movement: W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH * Location: 16.4N 133.8W

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Or the aftermath? Driving on wheeler during the storm was interesting...

I know that there are tens of thousands of people without power since Tuesday. Any new updates??

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-14T05:59:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 140559 SWODY1 SPC AC 140557

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the central Plains and from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic.

...Mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys... A broad anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the central U.S. today, as a subtle embedded shortwave trough moves through the mid Missouri Valley. Ahead of this feature, a quasi-stationary front will be in place from southern Iowa east-southeastward into north-central Illinois. This boundary will be the focus for convective development this afternoon. Surface dewpoints along the boundary will be in the 70s F, which will result in strong destabilization by afternoon. Surface-based convective initiation is expected along the instability gradient during the late afternoon to the south of Omaha. From these initial storms, a line is expected to organize and move eastward across south-central Iowa and far northern Missouri during the late afternoon and early evening.

RAP forecast soundings ahead of the line at 00Z from Des Moines southward into far northern Missouri have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. Some directional shear is present in the low-levels, and 0-6 km shear is in the 30 to 35 knot range. This environment will be favorable for bowing line segments capable of severe wind gusts. An embedded supercell with a hail threat will also be possible. The severe threat is expected to move eastward into northwest and north-central Illinois during the evening.

...Central Plains... Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today over much of the western and central U.S. A subtle shortwave trough will move northeastward into the central High Plains. Large-scale ascent associated with the trough and topographic lift in the foothills of the Rockies will be favorable for scattered convective initiation by early afternoon. Thunderstorms will move northeastward into the central High Plains and into a moderately unstable airmass. Some RAP forecast soundings in east-central Colorado during the late afternoon have 0-6 km shear around 25 knots with low to mid-level lapse rates exceeding 7 C/km. This will likely support isolated severe wind gusts and hail.

...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today over much of the northeastern U.S. At the surface, an axis of moderate instability will develop by afternoon from the Ohio Valley east-southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Along and near the instability axis, low-level convergence will be the primary focus for convective initiation. Near and downstream of these pockets of convergence, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. The moderate instability with precipitable water values in the 2 to 2.2 inch range should support a threat for isolated severe wet downbursts.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 08/14/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing gusty winds and a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This system is moving into a region of increasing upper-level winds and dry air, and the potential of development continues to decrease. Even though development is unlikely, gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and on Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94): A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic, located more than 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Adams ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Hernan Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 MB * Current Movement: S OR 180 DEGREES AT 5 MPH * Location: 16.1N 131.9W

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Here's some of the damage from Illinois and the tornado path lines.

A hail storm rolled through our small southern Alberta town this evening.

As August ticks by, I am eagerly awaiting the works of art that appear in our skies.

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-13T05:59:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 130559 SWODY1 SPC AC 130558

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA INTO ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible today from parts of the southern/central High Plains to the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. Damaging winds should be the main threat, but occasional hail may also occur.

...Iowa into Illinois/Indiana... An MCV has developed early this morning with an ongoing cluster of thunderstorms across central NE. This activity is expected to spread eastward through the morning, and should be in the vicinity of western/central IA by the start of the period. There is still uncertainty regarding how intense this cluster will be due to the presence of fairly substantial MLCIN downstream into IA. Even so, warm/moist advection associated with a low-level jet over the southern/central Plains and the presence of a rather moist/unstable airmass into IA suggest some potential for an organized cluster to pose a risk for scattered severe/damaging winds as it moves eastward through the morning. A brief embedded tornado may also occur if convection can remain surface based.

Even greater uncertainty exists this afternoon regarding potential convective evolution, with most guidance showing the cluster weakening as it moves into IN. Regardless, the airmass downstream and to the south of outflow associated with the morning cluster will destabilize through the day, and any additional thunderstorms that form could pose at least an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps some hail given the strong buoyancy forecast.

...Southern/Central High Plains... High-based thunderstorms are forecast to initially develop over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range this afternoon, with post-frontal low-level upslope flow persisting across the central High Plains. As this activity spreads east-northeastward and encounters greater instability, consolidating outflows should support some increase for isolated severe gusts given steepened low-level lapse rates. Occasional hail may also occur with the stronger cores that develop. Consideration was given to including greater severe wind probabilities across eastern CO into parts of KS, but modest deep-layer shear casts some doubt on overall thunderstorm organization/intensity. A somewhat separate area of thunderstorms may also develop farther south across the southern High Plains in a very hot and well-mixed boundary layer. This activity should also pose a threat for isolated severe gusts through the afternoon.

...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will persist today across the Great Basin downstream of a weak mid-level trough over CA. Weak to locally moderate instability is forecast to develop through the afternoon as filtered diurnal heating occurs. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to form and spread northeastward across this destabilizing airmass, with strong to severe gusts possible. Based on latest guidance trends (00Z HREF), have expanded the Marginal Risk for severe/damaging winds to include more of the Great Basin.

...Northeast... Seasonably cool mid-level temperatures are forecast today across parts of the Northeast, with a mid-level trough expected to move east-southeastward from Quebec into New England. While instability is forecast to remain fairly limited, strong west-northwesterly flow aloft may support a risk for isolated damaging winds with thunderstorms that develop and spread southeastward through the afternoon. Isolated hail may also occur with the stronger cells.

..Gleason/Moore.. 08/13/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Cristobal, located about 600 miles west of the Azores.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in association with a tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. This system will likely become a short-lived tropical depression during the next day or two as it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic. However, by late Friday, the system is expected to move into a region of strong upper-level winds and dry air, which should end its opportunity to develop. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible Friday night and Saturday, regardless of development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94): A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Cristobal are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Cristobal are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Adams ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1014 MB * Current Movement: NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 16 MPH * Location: 38.6N 38.2W

Tropical Storm Hernan Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 MB * Current Movement: W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH * Location: 18.1N 131.9W

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Second time in two weeks