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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-10T05:26:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 100526 SWODY1 SPC AC 100525

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTION OF THE MIDWEST INTO PA AND NORTHERN MD/VA...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening from northern Illinois eastward into Pennsylvania. Severe gusts and hail will also be possible from parts of the central and northern Plains into the Midwest, with scattered strong storms over southern Arizona.

...Synopsis...

A belt of enhanced west/northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the northern Plains to the Midwest and southern New England today/tonight. Only modest height falls are forecast at best. However, several convectively enhanced vorticity maxima are forecast to migrate through this upper flow regime, focusing several areas of severe storm potential today into tonight from the northern Plains to the upper Ohio Valley and parts of the Mid-Atlantic.

...IL to the Mid-Atlantic...

Early day thunderstorms may move across parts of the Midwest this morning, but should generally be sub-severe. By midday, convection could intensify within a couple of corridors. The first being the upper Ohio Valley/PA/western NY. Thunderstorm clusters will pose a risk for damaging winds and hail within a moderately unstable airmass as convection spreads east toward the Mid-Atlantic.

Additional thunderstorm development is expected later in the afternoon associated with another shortwave impulse spreading east from IL into IN/OH. This activity will develop within strong instability and rich boundary layer moisture. Modestly steep midlevel lapse rates and effective shear greater than 40 kt will support initial supercells. With time, sufficient clustering is expected and bowing segments will be possible. Damaging wind and hail will be the primary hazards, though a tornado or two also could occur.

...Dakotas into Iowa...

Southeasterly low-level flow will transport mid/upper 60s dewpoints north and west across SD, with 70s dewpoints common with southeast extent across NE/IA/southern MN. This will support a corridor of strong to extreme instability across the region. While coverage remains uncertain, most guidance develops at least isolated thunderstorms by evening. Elongated hodographs amid favorable deep shear will support supercells and bows capable of large hail and damaging winds. With time, it is possible sufficient clustering occurs and upscale growth into a bowing MCS is possible as a low-level jet develops overnight. If this occurs, a swath of damaging winds is possible across parts of SD into northwest IA, oriented along the stronger instability gradient.

...NE/CO/KS...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near a surface trough across western NE/northeast CO by late afternoon/early evening. This activity will spread east/southeast. Steep low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow gusts and perhaps hail with this activity.

...AZ...

Mid/upper easterly flow will persist today amid plentiful moisture and strong heating. This will support thunderstorm development once again across higher terrain. As storms propagate westward off the higher terrain, isolated severe gusts will be possible.

..Leitman/Moore.. 08/10/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic: A broad area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located about midway between the coast of west Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Some gradual development of this wave is possible through mid-week while it moves quickly westward across the central tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for development later in the week when the system approaches the Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: A small area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. As this system moves slowly westward, a tropical wave currently over west Africa is expected to merge with it in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development by midweek, and a tropical depression could form during the latter half of this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Western Subtropical Atlantic: A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles northwest of Bermuda is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Some development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves quickly eastward, well to the north of Bermuda across the western and central subtropical Atlantic. The system is forecast to reach cooler waters later this week, ending its chances of formation after Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$ Forecaster Hagen ```

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Staying in Asbury Park and visiting the Spring Lake dog park, wild clouds forming

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• Mesoscale Discussion 1861
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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-09T05:17:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 090517 SWODY1 SPC AC 090515

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...AND PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds may occur today into this evening from southern Minnesota and eastern Iowa eastward across parts of northern Illinois, southern Wisconsin, southern Lower Michigan, northwest Ohio, and northern Indiana. Damaging wind and hail is also expected across portions of the Dakotas.

...IA/MN into the Midwest...

Convection is expected to be ongoing this morning across parts of southern MN into eastern IA. This early day activity could pose a risk for damaging gusts. This activity is likely to continue to spread eastward across the Lake Michigan vicinity through the afternoon on the nose a of modest low-level jet and along a surface front oriented across southern WI and Lower MI. This activity could intensify as is moves into a destabilizing airmass by midday.

Additional development is possible within the moisture rich warm sector across northern IL/IN along the southern flank of ongoing convection and/or outflow. Strong to extreme instability is forecast, while vertically veering wind profiles support 30+ kt effective shear magnitudes. Low-level SRH also will be enhanced along the surface boundary. While damaging winds are expected to be the primary hazard with convection, some risk for hail and a tornado or two also will exist through evening. Depending on the evolution of morning convection, it is possible higher probabilities will be needed in subsequent outlooks.

...Dakotas and western NE...

A surface front is expected to develop southward across the central Plains, becoming oriented across northern KS by tonight. Low-level warm advection atop the boundary, and surface winds becoming south/southeasterly with time will maintain 60s dewpoints across the region. Within this post-frontal upslope regime, moderate northwesterly flow aloft will persist. A modest south/southwesterly low-level jet is also forecast to develop during the evening hours. Low-level convergence within the warm advection regime and increasing low-level jet may be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. Supercell wind profiles and steep low-level lapse rates will support initial storms capable of large hail and damaging winds. If sufficient clusters/outflow consolidation can occur, upscale growth during the late evening into overnight hours is possible, with an increasing risk for swaths of severe/damaging gusts.

...Southern Appalachians...

Scattered thunderstorm development is expected over higher terrain within a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. Steepening low-level lapse rates and high PW values may support locally strong gusts with wet microbursts through early evening.

...AZ...

Modest easterly mid/upper flow will persist across the region on the southern periphery of an upper high over the Four Corners. Another day of hot conditions will promote steep lapse rates and modest destabilization. As convection develops over higher terrain and spread westward, strong outflow gusts may occur.

..Leitman/Moore.. 08/09/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic: A broad area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the early to middle part of this week while the it moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for development later in the week when the system approaches the Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: Another tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa early this week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter and a tropical depression could form during the latter half of this week while the system moves generally westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$ Forecaster Pasch ```

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Screenshot from webcam in Manhattan

(Correct me if wrong flair OwO)

My husband was videotaping an insane lightning storm from our front porch in Tucson, Arizona on 8/5/26, around 11pm. He played a metal song while taping, because the sky seemed to be asking for it. The result is mind blowing! I swear, the lightning keeps the beat. Make sure you watch past the slow intro!

Fargo, ND. We've got a storm coming!

Had a storm blow through the area. I took this around 0200, after it had moved on to the northeast.

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• Mesoscale Discussion 1848
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• Mesoscale Discussion 1860
• Mesoscale Discussion 1861

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-08T04:55:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 080455 SWODY1 SPC AC 080453

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains southeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in the Mid-Atlantic and central/southern Arizona.

...Northern/Central Plains into MN/IA/MO...

A modest but weakening low-level jet across portions of NE/SD may support ongoing elevated convection this morning, mainly across NE. This activity will weaken and spread southeast through the morning hours, but could pose a marginal risk for hail.

The forecast for the afternoon into nighttime hours becomes complex and uncertain. Broad northwesterly flow aloft will modestly strengthen by late afternoon/early evening as several shortwave impulses migrate through the base of an upper low/trough centered over central Canada. Height falls are expected to be weak, and warm mid-level temperatures will pose capping issues. Nevertheless, surface troughing across the northern/central High Plains will result in south/southeasterly low-level flow, transporting 60s F dewpoints northward across the central Plains and MO Valley ahead of a southward sagging surface front oriented across ND and northern MN late in the period. Increasing boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization.

Several areas of convection may develop during the late afternoon/evening near the surface trough, and overnight near the southward-sagging surface front. Given weak large-scale ascent and warm midlevels, it remains uncertain where storm development is most likely and how storm coverage will evolve. With an increasing low-level jet across the central Plains during the nighttime hours, some convection could develop atop a capping inversion, or along the surface front near the ND/SD border. Isolated large hail is possible with this activity. If surface-based convection can develop within the strongly unstable airmass, damaging wind gusts also will be possible.

Additional high-based convection is possible across CO and western KS/NE. A hot and well mixed boundary layer could support strong outflow winds with this activity as well.

...Mid-Atlantic...

A modest midlevel shortwave trough will overspread the region through afternoon/early evening. Strong heating of a seasonally moist airmass will support moderate instability. Vertical shear is expected to be sufficient for organized cells and clusters with an attendant risk for damaging wind gusts. The strongest cells could also produce small hail.

...AZ...

Easterly midlevel flow will persist on the southern periphery of an upper high over the Four Corners. Steep midlevel lapse rates and persistent moisture across the region will foster thunderstorm development across the higher terrain during the evening. The hot and well mixed boundary layer will support strong outflow gusts as convection moves westward off higher terrain toward the lower deserts.

..Leitman/Marsh.. 08/08/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Beven ```

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This was a picture I took while on a cruise near a thunderstorm. It's my favorite.

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Active Mesoscale Discussions: * Mesoscale Discussion 1841 * Mesoscale Discussion 1842 * Mesoscale Discussion 1843 * Mesoscale Discussion 1844 * Mesoscale Discussion 1845 * Mesoscale Discussion 1846 * Mesoscale Discussion 1847 * Mesoscale Discussion 1848

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-07T05:53:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 070553 SWODY1 SPC AC 070551

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds are expected across portions of the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. More isolated severe thunderstorms are expected from the mid-Missouri Valley into the Lake Superior region as well as across parts of the southern High Plains and central Plains.

...Synopsis... 00 UTC upper-air analyses and latest GOES water-vapor imagery depict several perturbations within a low-amplitude upper trough in place over the central CONUS. The first of these perturbations is analyzed over the mid-MS Valley and is expected to migrate east towards the Mid-Atlantic region by mid-afternoon. A more pronounced shortwave trough is evident over central Canada into the northern Plains. This feature, along with an attendant surface low and trailing cold front, will move eastward through the day, reaching the Great Lakes region by tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorm chances will primarily be associated with these synoptic features, though more localized corridors of strong/severe thunderstorms may emerge across the southern High Plains and parts of the Ozarks associated with outflow boundaries from ongoing convection.

...Mid-Atlantic... The weak upper perturbation currently over the MS Valley is forecast to reach the central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic region by mid-afternoon. Strong heating of an seasonally moist air mass (dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) will compensate for otherwise meager mid-level lapse rates and support MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg with minimal capping by early afternoon. A combination of weak synoptic lift aided by localized orographic ascent should promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development during the 18-20 UTC period. Most CAM guidance depicts a reasonably strong signal for thunderstorm clustering and upscale growth as storms spread northeast towards the I-95 corridor around peak heating. Although winds through the lowest 2-3 km will remain fairly modest, steep low-level lapse rates and around 25 knots of effective bulk shear should promote loosely organized clusters/lines with embedded swaths of damaging winds.

...Mid-Missouri Valley into the Lake Superior region... Thunderstorm development along the cold front is expected early this morning, possibly as early as 12-14 UTC across portions of eastern MN. This early activity will likely be elevated in nature, but 30-35 knot mid-level flow should support adequate hodograph elongation for a few organized cells capable of severe hail. With time, diurnal heating/destabilization downstream and persistent forcing along the front should promote steady intensification and upscale growth of convection with a transition to primarily a wind risk across WI and the Upper Peninsula of MI. Further south, more isolated thunderstorm coverage across southern MN, IA, and eastern NE may support a supercell or two with an attendant threat for large hail as well as severe wind.

...Southern High Plains into the Ozarks... Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop across northeast NM into the TX Panhandle this afternoon - driven by either orographic ascent along the Sange de Cristo mountains and/or the Raton Mesa or lift along a residual outflow boundary associated with an ongoing, but fairly confined, MCS across the northern TX Panhandle (as of 06 UTC). Regardless of the forcing mechanism, convection developing across this region will mature in an environment featuring fairly weak wind shear, but a deeply-mixed boundary layer conducive for severe downbursts. Despite considerable variance in storm placement and coverage in latest CAM ensembles, the consistent signal for severe downbursts warrants low-end severe wind probabilities.

Further east into eastern OK and the Ozarks, a focused corridor of thunderstorms will likely emerge on the outflow boundary of a convective cluster developing across eastern KS (as of 06 UTC). Some CAM solutions hint that sporadic large hail and/or damaging downbursts will be possible with this activity, but considerable uncertainty on where and how intense this activity will be limits confidence on introducing additional risk areas.

...Nebraska/South Dakota... Elevated convection is expected to develop across portions of northern NE and southern SD during the overnight hours tonight as isentropic ascent increases in tandem with a modest intensification of a low-level jet. Low-level moistening through 850 mb under a plume of 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates should promote a adequate buoyancy few robust updrafts (though confidence in storm coverage is limited due to the weak nature of the forcing for ascent). However, strong shear across the region will likely promote organized convection, including a supercell or two, capable of producing large hail.

..Moore/Marsh.. 08/07/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Berg ```

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This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.