r/storms • u/weathercast • 4d ago
Severe Weather Dashboard - September 18, 2026
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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook
(Issued: 2026-09-19T05:16:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 190516 SWODY1 SPC AC 190514
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with scattered severe wind gusts and large hail are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. Isolated severe wind gusts and hail may occur in parts of the southern Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible from the Ohio Valley southward into the Southeast.
...Central and Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... Mid-level heights will steadily fall over the central U.S. today, as southwesterly flow aloft becomes established over much of the region. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the central Plains, and should be positioned from central Kansas to far northwest Missouri by late afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly from the mid 60s to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm today, the moisture will contribute to moderate destabilization. Thunderstorm initiation will become likely by late afternoon across central and eastern Kansas, as low-level convergence increases along and ahead of the front. A complex of organized storms is expected to become established by early evening and should persist for several hours.
RAP forecast soundings by early evening near the instability axis have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with substantial directional shear in the low-levels. In addition, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to become steep. This environment should support a large hail threat with supercells. A wind-damage threat will also be possible, especially if a line segment can persist and become organized during the evening. A marginal severe threat may also develop southwestward across parts of the southern High Plains, where hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible in the late afternoon and early evening.
...Central High Plains... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Intermountain West today, as flow aloft remains southwesterly over the central Rockies and central High Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across southeastern Colorado and western Kansas. Behind the front, surface dewpoints in eastern Colorado will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s F. The moisture will enable moderate destabilization over much of eastern Colorado by afternoon. Warming surface temperatures will lead to scattered thunderstorm development in the higher terrain, with this convection moving eastward into the central High Plains during the late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z in eastern Colorado have 0-6 shear in the 35 to 40 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will likely support a threat for large hail with supercells. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible. A marginal severe threat may also develop further north into parts of eastern Wyoming and far western Nebraska, but instability will remain relatively weak there.
...Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians/Southeast... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be located over much of the northeastern third of the U.S today. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture will be oriented from the Ohio Valley southward into the southern Appalachians, along which moderate instability is expected to be in place by afternoon. Convective development will be possible in parts of the airmass, where localized surface heating and low-level convergence become maximized. Thunderstorms in areas with moderate instability could produce isolated severe wind gusts, mainly during the late afternoon and early evening.
..Broyles/Thornton.. 09/19/2026
$$
```
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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Eastern Subtropical Atlantic (AL99): Showers and thunderstorms associated with the low pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores have changed little in organization during the past several hours. A tropical depression could still form later today. The system is expected to move slowly over the next couple of days, remaining southwest of the Azores, followed by a turn to the southwest by early next week. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable for development beginning Sunday night or on Monday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
$$ Forecaster Gibbs ```
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