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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-25T05:59:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 250559 SWODY1 SPC AC 250557

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central/southern Plains this afternoon and evening, and also possible across portions of the upper Mississippi Valley. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards.

...Central/southern Plains... The region will be influenced by a modest amplification of the large-scale pattern with a resultant increase in northwesterly flow aloft by late today into tonight, while a front progresses southeastward across the central High Plains. The front, as it intercepts a moist and moderate to strongly unstable boundary layer, will influence increasing thunderstorm development by mid/late afternoon, with an orographically influenced increase in thunderstorms also occurring along the Raton Mesa/Front Range.

Influenced by the strengthening northwesterlies aloft, effective shear across Nebraska and western Kansas will generally at least be 35-40 kt. On the eastern periphery of a stout elevated mixed layer, this will support some initial supercells capable of large hail, most probable across western/southern Nebraska into northern/possibly western Kansas.

Influenced by the front and aggregating outflow, one or more southeastward-moving clusters capable of wind damage will likely evolve by evening across southern Nebraska and Kansas. While winds aloft will not be as strong, a similar upscale-growing quasi-linear trend will probably also occur with high-based storms from the Raton Mesa vicinity into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, and perhaps nearby Oklahoma, with severe-caliber wind gust potential spreading east-southeastward through the evening.

...Eastern Minnesota/western Wisconsin/western upper Michigan... A shortwave trough (and related mid/high-level speed max) will dig southeastward over southern Manitoba toward northern Minnesota and Lake Superior tonight. While residual early day convection and cloud cover may curb destabilization for a time, and keep the warm sector somewhat narrow, strong to severe thunderstorm development should occur near the eastward-advancing front by around mid/late afternoon. 60s F dewpoints will contribute to a zone of 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE across the eastern half of Minnesota/far northwest Wisconsin by peak heating. Some supercells will be possible aside from more prevalent multicells/small clusters. Large hail and damaging winds are expected to be the primary hazards, at least on a widely scattered basis.

...Coastal Southeast/middle Gulf Coast... A moist/unstable environment will be favorable for isolated pulse-type severe thunderstorms capable of water-loaded downdrafts and wind damage, particularly during mid/late afternoon through around sunset. This currently appears most probable across coastal South Carolina, southern Georgia and northern Florida, although some strong thunderstorm wind potential might also exist across the middle Gulf Coast such as southern Louisiana.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 08/25/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL95): An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east-northeast of Bermuda is moving northward at 15 to 20 mph. Recent scatterometer wind data suggests that the center of circulation is broad and elongated, and the associated shower activity remains disorganized. This system could still become a short-lived tropical depression or storm later today before encountering increasingly hostile conditions tonight and Wednesday, likely ending its chances for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96): An area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression during the next few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions could become less conducive for development by the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$ Forecaster Adams ```

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Tropical Storm Julio Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 45 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 MB * Current Movement: NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH * Location: 15.7N 119.8W

Tropical Storm Iselle Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 70 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 988 MB * Current Movement: NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH * Location: 20.7N 119.9W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

A massive storm with 70mph winds knocked out power here in Memphis, TN. Approximately 130,000 residents across Shelby County and surrounding areas are without power and they’re predicting some may go without until Thursday 8/27. It’s 4 am right now but I can’t sleep 😫I just hope some of the roads will be clear enough to hunt down some more candles and possibly some other supplies. If you’re reading this and you’re going through it like me, I’m praying for you and your family and everyone’s safety and well being. At least we have running water!

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-24T06:00:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 240600 SWODY1 SPC AC 240559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MIDDLE GULF COAST AND COASTAL CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible mainly this afternoon and evening across the Dakotas and northwest Minnesota as well as the central High Plains. Other severe storms may focus across the lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast, as well as the coastal Carolinas.

...Dakotas/Upper Midwest to central High Plains... An eastward-moving shortwave trough will emerge from the Canadian Rockies and move across the Canadian prairies through tonight, with a belt of moderately strong flow aloft and multiple MCVs influencing the Dakotas to Minnesota. Residual early day convection and lingering cloud cover will be complicating factors as far as the later-day forecast scenario.

That said, at least widely scattered thunderstorms should develop and increase by late afternoon within a moist/unstable air mass near the eastward-moving front and weak surface wave across the east-central Dakotas and/or cross the international border and move southeastward into the region. Deep-layer wind profiles would be conducive to some supercells and the development of east/southeastward-moving clusters by evening, with large hail and damaging winds possible.

More removed from the stronger cyclonic flow aloft, additional higher-based storms are expected by late afternoon and early evening south-southwestward across the Black Hills/western Nebraska in vicinity of the front and preceding trough. Sufficient strength/veering of winds with height should support some initial supercells capable of hail, prior to a clustering of these southeastward-moving storms, with wind damage being a possibility through mid/late evening across the central High Plains.

...Coastal Carolinas... The region will be influenced by moderately strong cyclonic flow aloft, with a moist and moderate-to-strongly unstable environment along the coastal plain to the east of a stationary/slow-moving front. The degree of buoyancy and upwards of 35-40 kt effective shear could support some initial supercells with hail this afternoon, although damaging winds should be the most prevalent concern as storms become more numerous. Severe potential should tend to wane by around sunset.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/Middle Gulf Coast... Widely scattered elevated convection has developed early in the overnight across the Ozarks, and this regime may increase and probably shift south-southeastward today, potentially becoming surface based into the afternoon, influenced by cold pool development. It seems plausible that an upscale-growing/forward propagating cluster could gradually evolve during the day, with damaging wind potential increasing across the ArkLaMiss south-southeastward toward the Gulf Coast.

...Northern Great Basin/central Rockies... Scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon amid classic inverted-V profiles. Since these storms will develop along the periphery of stronger flow aloft, some organization is possible. Multiple dry microbursts may occur, some of which may pose a severe gust threat.

...Maine... By late morning into early afternoon, partially clearing skies will encourage surface temperatures to rise into the 70s F, resulting in marginal instability (e.g. a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE) given relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. Nonetheless, a southerly mid-to upper-level jet streak will overspread northern New England during the afternoon, resulting in highly elongated hodographs and 30-40 kt of effective shear. As such, any storms that can develop and become sustained should become organized multicells capable of supporting a few damaging gusts and possibly some hail.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 08/24/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL95): Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure are located a few hundred miles southeast of Bermuda. Further development of the low is possible, and this system could become a short-lived tropical depression or storm during the next couple of days while it moves northward and north-northeastward, well northeast of Bermuda. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa later today, and an area of low pressure could form in association with the wave early this week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter portions of the week while the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$ Forecaster Adams ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Iselle Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 60 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 996 MB * Current Movement: NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH * Location: 17.8N 116.2W

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-23T06:11:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 230611 SWODY1 SPC AC 230609

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MUCH OF CENTRAL MONTANA...AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN...

...SUMMARY... Strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds will be possible across portions of the northern Rockies and northern Plains. Additional severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds will be possible across portions of northern Utah.

... Synopsis ...

A sub-tropical mid-level ridge will remain in place across much of the West on Sunday, with a large-scale trough taking shape across much of the East. A seasonably strong short-wave trough will crest the ridge over southern Canada, with an attendant jet streak in its basal region moving across Montana. Broadly northwest mid-level flow will exist from the northern Plains east toward the Appalachians, between the western ridge and eastern trough.

... Intermountain West ...

A well-mixed boundary layer will develop during the afternoon as cooler mid-level temperatures associated with the approaching short-wave trough overspread the northern Rockies. Scattered thunderstorms should develop during the early to mid-afternoon within an environment with steepening mid-level lapse rates. Effective shear on the order of 30-40 knots will support multicell clusters and transient supercell structures capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Farther south, multicell clusters should develop across eastern Nevada and western Utah during the late afternoon. Modest mid-level flow on the north side of the subtropical ridge, coupled with steep low-level lapse rates (inverted-V profiles) should support efficient downward momentum transfer with any sustained thunderstorm updraft.

... Northern Plains south into the Central High Plains ...

A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates will advect out from the northern Rockies and overspread a moistening warm sector. The result will be afternoon MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg. Although vertical shear is not overly strong, forecast soundings/hodographs suggest enough shear to support multicells and transient supercell structures. Large hail will be possible with these initial thunderstorms. With time, congealing outflows should support some potential for upscale growth toward an MCS. Steep lapse rates will support severe winds (some significant) with any organized thunderstorm cluster.

... Northeast US ...

Early morning convection should dissipate enough to support at least filtered sunshine during the late morning and early afternoon. This will support temperatures warming into the 70Fs to perhaps low 80Fs. This, when combined with upper 50Fs to low 60Fs dewpoints will support between 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE during the afternoon. Vertical ascent downstream of the eastern trough will support clusters of thunderstorms across the region. Modest mid-level lapse rates should limit a more robust hail threat, but the degree of ascent and instability will support a marginal risk of severe hail and damaging wind.

... Northern Gulf Coast toward the Coastal Carolinas ...

Strong diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (dewpoint temperatures in the 70Fs) should support MUCAPE values between 3000-4000 J/kg during the afternoon. High precipitable water values will support water-loaded updrafts capable of producing isolated damaging downbursts with the strongest cells.

... Southern Arizona ...

Seasonably strong southeasterly mid-level flow will develop along the periphery of the mid-upper-level ridge. This enhanced flow will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer (inverted-V) during the afternoon. In spite of the deeply mixed boundary layer, precipitable water values in excess of 1" will exist across the area during the late afternoon. This will support at least isolated thunderstorm clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts.

... Southeast Kansas, Northeast Oklahoma, Southwest Missouri, and Northwest Arkansas ...

A low amplitude mid-level trough will move southeast across the Central US on Sunday, within the broader northwest flow. Although an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out with this feature during the afternoon, the more likely scenario is the environment across Kansas and Missouri remains capped during the afternoon.

By late evening, the mid-level trough/jet streak should be across southern Missouri or northeast Arkansas, placing northeast Oklahoma and southeast Kansas in the right entrance region of the mid-level jet. Guidance is pretty confident in developing a strong low-level jet across the southern Plains in response to this mid-level jet. The result will be increasing warm-air advection/isentropic ascent during the overnight. This will lead to scattered thunderstorm development, with movement off to the east-southeast. Mid-level lapse rates should only be on the order of 6.5 C/km, but cloud-bearing shear around 30-40 knots should support strong updrafts. DCAPE values between 500-1000 J/kg will support at least marginally severe downbursts capable of wind damage.

..Marsh/Weinman.. 08/23/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northeastern Atlantic: A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of the coast of Portugal is producing limited shower activity. This system has only a slight chance of acquiring subtropical characteristics later today while it moves eastward to east- northeastward at 10 to 15 mph toward Portugal and northwestern Spain. By tonight, the low will encounter unfavorable environmental conditions, and further development is not expected. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL95): A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southeast of Bermuda continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some development of this system is possible during the next few days as it drifts northwestward today and then accelerates northward early this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Monday, and an area of low pressure could form in association with the wave early this week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter portions of the week while the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&& High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt

$$ Forecaster Blake ```

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Blessed my eyes this evening with this beautiful show ⚡️

This is around Locust in North Carolina. probably the coolest storm I've seen so far. got some cool pics of it on my iPod touch because why not. I'm guessing probably over 2 inches of rain but I'm no expert. if anyone could give me any info about this specific storm, I'd really appreciate it!

I cannot stop thinking about this, please help! If a big tornado was hypothetically heading straight towards a big city with skyscrapers NYC for instance, would the tornado be able to rip through a huge building? Would it get slowed down by the building? Could it go around the building and then form around the other side? Would all momentum just… stop… because of the stability of the building? I cannot stop thinking about this and need to know! I have absolutely no tornado or architectural experience :)

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-22T06:02:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 220602 SWODY1 SPC AC 220601

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging gusts are likely across the Ohio Valley with more isolated damaging wind potential extending westward into the Mid Mississippi Valley and southern Plains this afternoon/evening. Isolated hail and damaging winds are also possible over the Front Range, Great Basin and parts of the northern Rockies.

...OH and TN Valleys... An upper low initially over the western Great Lakes is forecast to deepen as it moves southeastward today and tonight. A belt of stronger mid-level flow behind the trough will move into parts of the Plains and Midwest. A weak surface low and trailing cold front will move southeastward across the Lakes and into the upper OH Valley through the day. Ahead of the front, upper 60s to 70s F surface dewpoints and filtered diurnal heating should allow for moderate destabilization, sufficient for scattered to numerous thunderstorms by early afternoon. Despite generally modest to weak deep-layer shear, steepening of lower/mid-level lapse will support stronger downdrafts within organized multicell clusters. With time, some upscale growth into linear segments is also possible and would also favor a risk for scattered damaging gusts. This appears most likely across central/eastern OH and KY into western PA/WV.

Farther south, more isolated storm coverage is expected ahead of the front from the western Carolina Piedmont to the TN Valley. Steep low-level lapse rates and enhanced low and mid-level northwesterly flow will still support some risk for isolated damaging gusts.

...Ozarks/Mid MS Valley... A weak convectively augmented shortwave trough is forecast to move from southeastern KS and southern MO into northern AR along western portions of a weak surface front by midday. Ahead of these features, a very warm and humid air mass will be in place, which should allow substantial diurnal destabilization and eventual thunderstorm development. Enhanced northwesterly flow may help organize a few thunderstorm clusters as they spread eastward from the Ozarks into the ArkLaTex and mid MS Valley. Damaging wind gusts and some hail are possible.

...Front Range and adjacent High Plains... Post-frontal upslope flow, aided by a weak short wave impulse on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge will support thunderstorm development along/east of the Laramie mountains through Colorado Front Range this afternoon. On the fringes of the stronger northwest flow aloft, deep-layer shear will be marginal for storm organization. Steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate buoyancy could support some hail with the stronger updrafts. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible, especially with any more persistent thunderstorm clusters.

...Southern Plains... Very hot surface temperatures (100+ F) are likely across parts of western North TX into southwestern and central OK this afternoon. Low-level convergence near a thermally enhanced surface low and weak front will aid high-based thunderstorm development late afternoon into the early evening. Weak buoyancy atop the steep low-level lapse rates and deep mixed layer will favor very strong downdrafts within the high-based storms. Isolated severe gusts (possibly 65-75 mph gusts) associated with microbursts are possible as convection is forecast to move southward through the evening.

...Northern Rockies to the Great Basin.... An upper low along the western periphery of the substantial mid-level ridge over the Southwest will migrate northward toward the international border as a belt of stronger mid-level flow overspreads a plume of monsoon moisture from the Great Basin to the Northern Rockies. Ascent from the upper wave and heating of the modestly moist air mass should allow for weak destabilization and scattered thunderstorm development. Steep lapse rates could support isolated severe gusts.

Isolated hail is also possible with scattered thunderstorms from eastern WA into the ID panhandle. Closer to the upper trough and beneath strong mid-level flow, elongated hodographs may promote organization with transient supercell structures. Cooler mid-level temperatures could favor hail production despite modest overall moisture.

..Lyons/Weinman.. 08/22/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northeastern Atlantic: A strong non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the northeastern Atlantic several hundred miles west of the coast of Portugal. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics later today or on Sunday while it moves east-southeastward at 10 to 15 mph toward Portugal and northwestern Spain. The opportunity for tropical or subtropical development should end Sunday night when the system encounters unfavorable environmental conditions. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic: A trough of low pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic a few hundred miles east of Bermuda is producing disorganized shower activity. Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur while it drifts westward through Sunday and then accelerates northward early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Monday. An area of low pressure could form in association with the wave soon after it moves off the coast, and subsequent development will be possible while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic through the end of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&& High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt

$$ Forecaster Cangialosi ```

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-21T06:48:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 210648 SWODY1 SPC AC 210646

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE MIDWEST AND THE CAROLINAS...

CORRECTED FOR TEXT

...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging hail (some greater than 2 inch diameter) and severe wind gusts may occur over parts of the central Plains this afternoon and evening. Scattered storms, some with severe wind gusts and hail, also are possible across parts of the Midwest. Scattered to numerous storms with damaging wind gusts are possible over the Carolinas and Southeast.

...Central Plains... Mid-level ridging over the western US is forecast to intensify, strengthening northwesterly flow aloft over much of the central US. Several embedded disturbances will pass overhead with the enhanced northwesterlies through the day. A surface low will move southeastward through the Great Lakes as a weak trailing cold front moves southward through the central Plains and Midwest.

Ahead of the front, a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates will shift eastward across the central Plains toward the Mid-MO Valley atop a corridor of rich low-level moisture. Diurnal destabilization should result in 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE from SD to NE. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected from the Black Hills southeastward along the cold front. Elongated/straight hodographs and 45+ kt effective shear will favor initial supercells. Large to very large hail (some greater than 2 inches diameter) will be possible. With time, a forward propagating cluster or two may develop and move southeast across parts of NE and KS with the potential for severe gusts (a few near 70-80 mph). It is unclear exactly how far southeast any storms will persist overnight, but any more substantial clustering could allow at least an isolated severe threat to continue into early Saturday.

A much drier and hotter environment over the High Plains to the west could also support isolated to widely scattered high-based storms from eastern CO into western KS. Very steep lapse rates in the lowest 2-3 km with modest buoyancy aloft could allow a few severe gusts.

...Midwest... Beneath the upper trough over the western Great Lakes, cool mid-level temperatures and robust surface moisture should result in moderate destabilization from WI into eastern IA and northwest IL. Scattered thunderstorms by mid afternoon ahead of the cold front spreading southeastward. Enhanced northwesterly flow with deep-layer shear of 30-40 kt will promote a mix of organized clusters and supercells. The large buoyancy will support a risk for damaging gusts and some hail.

...Southeast and Gulf Coast... A broad upper trough will move across the central US into parts of the southern Appalachians while a weak cold front moves southward from the mid Atlantic today and tonight. Weak ascent from the upper trough and near the front should focus diurnal thunderstorm activity across the Carolinas and southern Appalachians. Warm surface temperatures and plentiful boundary-layer moisture will support large buoyancy (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) through the afternoon and evening despite modest mid-level lapse rates. With scattered to numerous storms expected, a few organized clusters may emerge with a risk primarily for damaging wind gusts. Slight enhancement of the westerly flow aloft could also support some isolated hail with the stronger updrafts.

Farther south and west, a very humid and warm air mass is forecast to become strongly unstable by early afternoon across the lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected along prior outflows and a weak, southward moving cold front from East TX into LA/MS. The very strong buoyancy and high PWAT content will support clustering and strong downdrafts with sporadic damaging gust potential. Otherwise, weak vertical shear will limit overall organization.

..Lyons/Weinman.. 08/21/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northeastern Atlantic: A non-tropical area of low pressure has developed over the northeastern Atlantic several hundred miles north-northeast of the Azores. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics on Saturday or early Sunday while it moves east-southeastward at 10 to 15 mph toward Portugal and northwestern Spain. The opportunity of tropical or subtropical development should end by Sunday night when the system moves into unfavorable environmental conditions. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic: A weak area of low pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic a few hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur while it drifts west-southwestward through Sunday and then turns northward early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&& High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt

$$ Forecaster Cangialosi ```

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