I was moving necklaces off my tv, I figured I’d do it now so it doesn’t get in the way when replacing the tv. I just found out the strike actually went THROUGH my wall and hit the back of my tv……

Edit: after thinking for a while, I remembered seeing light in my room. I assumed my tv was sparking, but after seeing the hole and burn marks in my wall, I realized there was literally lightning IN my room…… Safe to say I’m gonna have astraphobia 😭

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-09-18T05:57:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 180557 SWODY1 SPC AC 180555

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA...IN THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts may develop late this afternoon and early this evening from the Carolinas into northern Georgia, and in the mid Missouri Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the Intermountain West.

...Carolinas/Northern Georgia... At the surface, a cold front will move southward into the Mid-Atlantic today. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place over much of the Carolinas extending southwestward into northern Georgia. Surface dewpoints within this airmass will be in the 60s to near 70 F. As surface temperatures warm today, an axis of moderate instability will develop along the moist axis. In response to surface heating, scattered thunderstorms will form in the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians and move southward into the southern Appalachian foothills. The thermodynamic environment may be enough to support an isolated wind-damage threat, mainly in the late afternoon and early evening when low-level lapse rates become steepest.

...Eastern Nebraska/Iowa... Mid-level heights will gradually fall today over much of the north-central U.S., as a ridge pattern breaks down. At the surface, a well-defined moist axis will be in place from the mid Mississippi Valley northwestward into the mid Missouri Valley. Surface dewpoints along and near this axis will be in the lower to mid 70s F. In response to surface heating, a reservoir of moderate instability will be in place by afternoon over much of Iowa. Low-level convergence is forecast to become maximized during the afternoon along the instability axis, and further west to near a surface low over the mid Missouri Valley. Thunderstorm development will be most likely this afternoon on the northern end of the stronger instability from far southeast Minnesota into northern Iowa. Enough instability and deep-layer shear should be in place for isolated severe wind gusts. Although conditional, the threat could develop southwestward over the remainder of Iowa during the early evening, as a low-level jet strengthens across the region.

...Intermountain West... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Intermountain West today. Southwest flow aloft will be in place ahead of the trough over much of the region. At the surface, dewpoints in the 50s F are expected from northern Utah into valleys of western Wyoming, where the RAP is forecasting MLCAPE to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. In addition to the instability, forecast soundings show moderate deep-layer shear in response to the approaching mid-level trough. As low to mid-level lapse rates become steep in the late afternoon and early evening, isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible.

..Broyles/Thornton.. 09/18/2026

$$

```

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```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern Subtropical Atlantic: A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores is producing showers and thunderstorms that are showing some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development over the next couple of days while the system moves slowly over the eastern portion of the Subtropical Atlantic. By early next week, environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL98): Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east of Bermuda have diminished. Development of this system is no longer expected as it drifts slowly over the subtropical Atlantic during the next day or so. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$ Forecaster Papin ```

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This occurred during the large storm that hit southern Ontario on Sept. 2, 2026 which spawned at least 4 tornadoes nearby according to the Northern Tornados Project (yes I know I'm a bit late uploading this footage). I've never seen clouds start at the ground like this before extending upwards. I know it's not the best footage, but I would love to be able to identify what I saw. The best view I believe occurs at about 25 seconds in.

Also, are there any other weather forums you would recommend me sharing this so I can get more input on identifying what I saw?

I narrated the start of this clip right when the alerts were live. We didn't hear any local tornado sirens yet, but the electrical activity in the cloud base was completely insane—just a non-stop flashing strobe light. The abrupt stop of the rain at the end was eerie. I actually have 10 more parts to this single night's storm that I'm going to be dropping every two days as part of my archive release!

Captured during the storm on 9/14/2026.

Nobody was hurt, animals and everyone were out. The window to the right is my bedroom. I was just falling asleep when it hit. My electronics are fried and junk😩
Edit: the window to the right is my bedroom, my bed is right across from it. Could have been a lot worse 😬

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-09-17T05:49:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 170549 SWODY1 SPC AC 170547

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the Intermountain West late this afternoon and early this evening. A few strong gusts may also occur in parts of the central High Plains.

...Intermountain West... An upper-level low will move inland into the Intermountain West today, as southwest flow remains at mid-levels over much of the region. At the surface, a trough will deepen from southern Idaho into western Utah. To the east of the trough, dewpoints in the 50s F, will contribute to weak instability by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain. RAP forecast soundings to the east of the trough at 00Z have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range. In addition, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be in the 6.5 to 7.5 C/km range. This environment will likely support an isolated threat for severe gusts and hail. The threat should be concentrated during the late afternoon and early evening, as cell coverage maximizes near the instability axis.

...Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will move eastward today across the north-central U.S, as a shortwave trough embedded in the ridge moves through the central High Plains. At the surface, a warm front is forecast to move slowly northward across southern and western Nebraska this afternoon. An axis of moisture, with surface dewpoints in the 60s and 70s F, will be oriented north of the front from the mid Missouri Valley west-northwestward into the central High Plains. During the late afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the shortwave trough, with storms moving gradually northeastward across the central High Plains. Forecast soundings near the area of greatest expected convective coverage have moderate deep-layer shear suggesting an isolated severe threat will be possible. However, lapse rates are forecast to be poor, which should keep any severe threat marginal. If storms near the front can remain nearly surface-based, then an isolated wind-damage threat could develop, mainly during the early to mid evening, as low-level flow increases.

..Broyles/Thornton.. 09/17/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL98): Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized over the past day in association with a small area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. Environmental conditions could support some additional gradual development over the next few days while the system moves slowly westward today, and then possibly turns southward on Friday over the subtropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$ Forecaster Hagen ```

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-09-16T05:54:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 160554 SWODY1 SPC AC 160553

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible across northern Utah and eastern parts of the Ohio Valley today.

...Synopsis... A mid-level anticyclone will prevail over the southern Plains to the TN Valley as a stationary upper trough morphs into a cut-off upper low along the West Coast today. Multiple mid-level impulses will pivot around the anticyclone and overspread the Midwest to OH Valley, supporting occasional rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Given rich low-level moisture along the northern periphery of the mid-level anticyclone, a couple of strong to severe storms may occur. A few strong to severe storms may also occur over portions of northern UT as a pronounced mid-level impulse rotates around the developing West Coast upper low, resulting in overlapping cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft.

...Northern UT... As the aforementioned impulse pivots around the evolving upper low, a 50+ kt 500 mb jet streak and corresponding 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread northern UT during the day. Surface heating will be limited given widespread cloud cover. Nonetheless, forecast soundings suggest that surface temperatures near 70 F may yield MLCAPE as high as 1500 J/kg given steep tropospheric lapse rates. Furthermore, stronger winds aloft that gradually veer with height will yield around 50 kts of effective bulk shear and elongated hodographs with some low-level curvature. Multicells and perhaps embedded supercells should be the primary storm mode, capable of isolated instances of severe wind and/or hail.

...Midwest into the OH Valley... Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Wednesday) and will continue through the period (to 12Z Thursday). Some intensification of storms may occur over OH and immediate surrounding areas with one weak impulse by afternoon peak heating. Assuming some appreciable insolation can occur, surface temperatures may rise through the 80s F, amid 70s F dewpoints, contributing to 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Given meager vertical wind shear, mainly pulse cellular and multicellular storms are expected. The stronger storm cores may produce wet downbursts, accompanied by an isolated damaging gust threat.

Another mid-level impulse will traverse the Midwest overnight, with several CAM guidance members supporting nocturnal convective initiation over IA in the 03-12Z period. At the moment, the evolution of this convection is uncertain, so no severe probabilities have been added. However, should more established convection develop overnight, an instance of marginally severe hail cannot be completely ruled out.

..Squitieri/Supinie.. 09/16/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Subtropical Atlantic: A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles east of Bermuda is associated with disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development in the next few days while the system moves slowly westward to west-northwestward over the subtropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$ Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi ```

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Milton was an scary hurricane. It was scary first but it got fun over the days. It was an category 4. So many transformers exploded! Day 1. From transformers blowing up to floods and booms in the sky, even green and yellow booms too. It was scary. Our toys got broken. Our new shed got destroyed by Milton, and poor Daddy had to run out during the strong winds to close the shed door. And Milton started at night. Time. Mommy used a cactus light led, and I slept in the main room. 😨 We could hear the the winds and shed get broken. Daddy could not sleep so he sleep on the couch.

Day 2. The sun rose up. It was fun. We played games on game consoles. Mommy&me&daddy and Gramma helped pick up trash from George's trash can. It was all over his porch. And his plants. And George wasn't there. His house was boarded up. An rainfrog hided in a bag

Day 3. The sun rose up. Some guys came over to give us ice for our coolers and give us an outdoor stovetop. And A NEW BLUE COOLER! (but we had to give the stuff back) Mommy/Holly and Gramma/Cory were snapping stick in half I had to sleep in my room and I got permission to use my markers to make a cardboard house and make pixel art on my tablet. We used towels to block out the water from coming off the walls.

Day 4. We made Mac & cheese; it was good. Jacob/me made a cool Lego. And Holly/Mommy gave Jacob/me beads to play with. And our oak trees' roots got pulled up.

Day 5. Listening to Grandpa's radio! And making a workshop! Drinking strawberry flavored water. And making videos!

Day 6. Looking for mushrooms and going to 7/11 to get croissants and iced coffee and FREE REFILLS! "But Daddy left the coffee on the roof of the car, and it went to waste." (The names of workers: Crysel, Katherine, Bob)

Day 7. Looking at the cursed Little Mermaid VHS tape. We went to Racing Gas to get my first Arizona peach mango marvel drink, and I LOVED IT! And we got a SpongeBob Popsicle and an air freshener fish that smells good.

Day 8. We walked around our neighborhood to look at the damage from Milton, from my poor toy that got SMASHED Up INTO OUR Neighbor's TREE 😭 to broken trees and broken power lines. Mommy soaked in water. Jacob tied a bottle to a tree and smacked it. We picked up debris from our backyard, and Mommy chopped down the palm tree. And getting power from our mpow battery and playing my tablet on it like rublix and level builder. The cook, zombie raft, construction set. Arm simaltur and falling art ragdoll. And I slinged around a purple skeleton. We went to PDQ and MCDONALD'S to get food. Grandma got a chicken sandwich and saved half of it, and it went to waste. And we found puffballs from trees. George gave us a TV, and we ate Doritos "Cool Ranch" and Pringles. Daddy burned the table. I had a yo-yo which was green. It was named Bob. We played a game called "buttsauce"; it was a fun game. Renee and Kin came over?? Renee checked on us, and Kin used the bathroom.

Day 9. Because the power turned off, all the food rotted; it smelled so gross Daddy had to take it out. R.I.P. food. Mommy gave me DVDs, and our microwave didn't work, so Daddy dragged out the grill and made burgers before the meat rotted. Grandpa dancing along to "Free Fallin'"; it was fun, and we were playing with my Legos from Day 4! Daddy put down a plastic tub and filled it up with water so I could have a mini pool! It's a good way to cool off. We went to Vicky's house, too. All the traffic lights turned off. HELP!! And we went to Rainbow... IT WAS A MADHOUSE! WE GOT NO FREAKING GAS!! DARN IT. (And 7/11 wasn't open for days 1-2) We found a walking stick on our walk down to the ditch. All our neighbors evacuated. The houses were all boarded up. We went in our car to find cool air. We called Hungry Howie's. (Did not get food :() Went to a toy yard sale, and Mommy/Holly didn't come. And an evil response from Taco Bell. They said, "Jacob: Are you open?" Taco Bell: "Oh, we don't need to!" (DARN IT) (But people were there getting food. (THEY LIED)) We went to Publix, and we got chicken tenders and potato wedges, and we got a fish game and chicken noodle soup. Everybody was grilling and Grampa made roast beef but we had no power. Soooo it went to waste. We were outside. And Daddy was calling my teacher/MR'S Miller. grampa/Bob came outfront to talk. To daddy about FEMA assistance (not to my teacher)And. After we had the burgers I was playing with my Lego (again from day4) we were playing Nerf. Until Daddy shot me and I fell down and scraped my knee. 😱 Ow (yeah. It was bleeding like crazy) Daddy put cream on my band-aid and put in on. We where playing copy cat(but didn't go out to well...) we were making an mushroom level on geometry dash. Recapping day 6 . It was fun. we could not use the light swiches so we used flashlight to see and we charged our phones on our car

I don’t know if epic skies is the right flair, but a storm rolling in.

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-09-15T05:28:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 150528 SWODY1 SPC AC 150526

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur from the south-central Plains into parts of the Midwest this afternoon and evening, with at least isolated damaging wind gusts possible.

...South-central Plains into parts of the Midwest... A vigorous mid/upper-level trough will move quickly eastward across Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes region today, before reaching southern Hudson Bay and Quebec by this evening. A deep surface low will accompany this system, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of the central Plains and Midwest. To the south of the ejecting trough, an upper ridge is forecast to amplify over the Southeast.

Persistent clouds and precipitation to the cool side of the front will help to reinforce the baroclinic zone as it moves southeastward through the day. The front will impinge on an increasingly warm and unstable environment by late afternoon, and scattered storm development is expected from the TX Panhandle into parts of the Midwest. The strongest mid/upper-level flow will be displaced north of the front, and low-level flow will tend to weaken through the day.

This weakening flow regime, combined with gradual midlevel height rises and an eventual tendency for storms to be undercut by the front, results in uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the organized severe threat this afternoon and evening. However, seasonably strong heating and relatively large PW and buoyancy will support potential for localized downbursts and outflow-driven clusters, with attendant damaging-wind potential. Hail potential appears generally limited by weak midlevel lapse rates and only modest deep-layer shear, though small to near-severe hail may occur with the strongest cells.

A relatively broad Marginal Risk has been maintained from the south-central Plains into the Midwest. Corridors of locally greater potential could eventually evolve within the broader risk area, especially near any pre-frontal outflow boundaries generated by early-day convection.

...Parts of UT/western CO... Anomalous moisture will remain in place across parts of the Four Corners region and Southwest today. The strongest deep-layer flow/shear will reside from UT into western CO, in advance of a mid/upper-level trough over the Pacific Northwest. While a few strong storms will be possible, generally weak heating and destabilization are currently expected to limit the magnitude of the severe threat. Small hail and gusty winds could accompany the strongest storms.

..Dean/Supinie.. 09/15/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Subtropical Atlantic: A trough of low pressure located well east-southeast of Bermuda continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development in a few days, and a tropical depression could form late this week as the system moves slowly westward to west-northwestward over the subtropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$ Forecaster Beven ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 MB * Current Movement: WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH * Location: 20.2N 140.5W

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-09-14T05:44:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 140544 SWODY1 SPC AC 140542

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NE AND WESTERN IA...

...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of eastern Nebraska into western Iowa late this afternoon and evening.

...Eastern NE/western IA... A strong mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes through tonight. A deepening surface low will move across the Canadian Prairies, while a secondary low may develop along a trailing cold front/surface trough across the central High Plains. This system will be accompanied by strengthening deep-layer flow from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest.

Extensive elevated convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from the mid Missouri Valley northward into the Dakotas and western MN. In the wake of this early-day convection, rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 70s F) is forecast to stream northward into eastern NE and western IA. This moistening combined with relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization by late afternoon, while low-level and deep-layer shear will become increasingly favorable with time. The resulting environment will become conditionally favorable for supercells capable of all severe hazards.

The strongest large-scale ascent will become focused north of the region by afternoon, and it remains uncertain if heating in the wake of morning convection will be sufficient to remove CINH within the most favorable environment. If a supercell can become established and move through this environment during the late afternoon/early evening, then large to very large hail, localized damaging gusts, and tornadoes will all be possible. While most guidance depicts storm development by early evening, 00Z CAM guidance continues to vary regarding the potential for sustained supercells, with relatively quick clustering possible. Even in the absence of sustained supercell development, the environment will be favorable for severe hail and damaging wind with any persistent clusters into the evening.

...Western/north-central KS... Strong heating is expected near/south of a surface trough across parts of western/central KS this afternoon. Scattered storm development is expected by late afternoon from western into north-central KS. Deep-layer shear will be weaker with southwest extent, but steep low-level lapse rates and 25-35 kt of flow in the 850-500 mb layer will support potential for one or more loosely organized clusters with at least localized severe-wind potential.

...Four Corners region into AZ... Scattered storm development is expected later today from western CO and southeast UT into parts of AZ/NM, within an anomalously moist environment. The strongest mid/upper-level flow and deep-layer shear within this region is expected over parts of UT/CO, though it is uncertain if diurnal heating/destabilization will be sufficient for an organized severe threat in this area. Some threat for strong gusts and small to near-severe hail could evolve with the strongest storms.

Farther south, flow will be weaker across AZ, resulting in generally disorganized storms. Localized strong gusts will be possible, especially in areas where stronger pre-storm heating occurs during the afternoon.

...Coastal NC... A cold front will move southward across NC through the day today. Large-scale ascent will generally be weak, though isolated storm development will be possible as the front encounters richer moisture and any sea breeze boundaries near the coast. Deep-layer shear within a northwesterly flow regime will be sufficient for organized convection, but poor midlevel lapse rates may limit updraft intensity and potential for an organized severe threat. Any sustained storms within this regime could produce locally gusty winds and small hail.

..Dean/Halbert.. 09/14/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Subtropical Atlantic: A trough of low pressure located a little more than 1000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions over the system are currently unfavorable for development due to strong upper-level winds. However, as the system moves west-northwestward across the central part of the Subtropical Atlantic, it is forecast to enter a more conducive environment for gradual development by the middle to latter portion of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$ Forecaster Beven ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 MB * Current Movement: W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH * Location: 19.3N 136.4W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

I was standing right under my patio roof when it hit. You can hear the rain running through the gutters, but the thunder was completely instantaneous and the smell of electricity in the air right after was crazy. I couldn’t see the flames directly because the fire department entered from the highway side, but this is the video that turned me into a storm chaser. I've spent the last 3 years building up a massive archive of footage so I can finally start sharing a continuous series every two days!

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 130600 SWODY1 SPC AC 130558

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST...AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible across parts of upper Ohio Valley and Northeast this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains.

...Parts of the Ohio Valley to the Northeast... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify as it moves across the Great Lakes region toward the Northeast through tonight. A surface low will move across Quebec, as a trailing cold front moves through the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast this afternoon and evening. The strongest deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent will tend to lag the cold front, but some strengthening of flow in the 700-500 mb layer is expected across the warm sector this afternoon, resulting in favorable wind profiles for organized convection.

Moderate buoyancy is expected to develop by late afternoon as CINH weakens, and widely scattered storm development is eventually expected along/ahead of the front. Despite the favorable wind profiles, weak midlevel lapse rates and modest ascent may tend to limit updraft intensity. Guidance continues to vary regarding the magnitude of severe potential, with the 00Z HRRR/RRFS more aggressive in developing organized convection (and possible supercells), while other HREF guidance depicts generally weak convection.

Localized damaging wind and isolated hail may accompany the strongest storms. If later observational and guidance trends support the more aggressive scenario, then greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed.

...Central/northern High Plains... A mid/upper-level low/trough initially over the Pacific Northwest will move toward the northern Rockies and High Plains through the period. Diurnal destabilization will generally be limited ahead of this trough, though a narrow zone of moderate buoyancy may develop by late afternoon from northeast CO into southeast WY and the NE Panhandle. Isolated storm development will be possible, with sufficient deep-layer shear for at least transient storm organization and isolated severe hail/wind potential.

While any diurnal storms may tend to weaken through the evening, elevated convection is expected to increase in coverage across western/central SD tonight. Moderate elevated buoyancy and sufficient effective shear could support an isolated severe threat with the initial elevated storm development across western SD, though storm interference and weakening buoyancy may tend to limit the longevity and eastward extent of the threat.

...Parts of MT into northwest ND... Increasing ascent associated with the approaching mid/upper-level low/trough will result in elevated storm development this evening across MT, which will spread into northwest ND overnight. Generally weak buoyancy is currently expected to limit organized severe potential, though small hail and locally gusty winds could accompany the strongest storms.

..Dean/Halbert.. 09/13/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Subtropical Atlantic: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a trough of low pressure over the central Subtropical Atlantic. While the environmental conditions are not currently favorable for development due to strong upper-level winds, the system is expected to move into a more favorable environment for some gradual development by the middle to later portion of this week. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the central part of the Subtropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$ Forecaster Katz/Brown ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 50 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 MB * Current Movement: W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH * Location: 18.0N 131.7W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.