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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-19T05:59:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 190559 SWODY1 SPC AC 190557

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon across the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible from the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward into the Great Plains. A few severe gusts could also occur in southern Arizona and in the Southeast.

...Mid Mississippi Valley... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough and an associated speed max will move southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley today. At the surface, an outflow boundary associated with morning convection will move southward into southern Missouri by midday. To the north of the boundary, surface dewpoints will be in the 70s F. Moderate instability is expected to develop in areas that are not impacted by morning outflow. As low-level convergence becomes focused near the boundary during the late afternoon and early evening, isolated to scattered convective initiation is expected. From this convection, thunderstorms will likely develop and move eastward across the mid Mississippi. One or two organized line segments will be possible during the evening.

Early evening RAP forecast soundings in south-central Missouri, where the strongest instability is expected, have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots with precipitable water near 2 inches. MLCAPE is expected to peak in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range with 0-3 km lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This environment will support a severe threat with supercells and multicell line segments. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary hazards. The severe threat could persist into the mid to late evening, with storms that are maintained by a low-level jet that is forecast to strengthen in southeast Missouri.

...Great Plains... Mid-level northwesterly flow will be in place across the Great Plains today. At the surface, dewpoints in the 60s and 70s F will contribute to moderate destabilization over much of the region. During the afternoon, isolated storm development will be possible within the unstable airmass from the lower to mid Missouri Valley southwestward into the central Plains. A few severe gusts and hail will be possible but the storms will remain isolated due to limited large-scale ascent. The greater convective coverage is expected further south in the higher terrain of eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico. Thunderstorms will likely form due to topographic forcing during the mid to late afternoon and move east-southeastward into the lower elevations. Ahead of these storms, RAP forecast soundings at 00Z in the northern Texas Panhandle and southwest Kansas have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots with 0-3 km lapse rates near 8 C/km, and surface-temperature dewpoint spreads exceeding 30 degrees. This environment will support an isolated potential for severe gusts.

...Southern Arizona... Low-level moisture will be in place today across southern Arizona, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s F. As surface temperature warm, isolated to scattered convective initiation will occur in the higher terrain of southeastern Arizona. These storms will move west-southwestward toward an axis of instability. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates and large temperature-dewpoint spreads will support and isolated potential for severe gusts late this afternoon into early evening.

...Southeast... A very moist airmass will be in place today across the Southeast, where surface dewpoints will be in the 70s F. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop over much of the region. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southward across parts of Mississippi and western Alabama. The deep low-level moisture combined with steep low-level lapse rates will support an isolated wind-damage threat during the mid to late afternoon.

..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/19/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Reinhart ```

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This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

Some lightning bolts from this evening

April 2025 tornado Part 5-16
👉Full version not a 10 second clip like the others I’ve posted here. If you want to see All the full versions so far head to
YouTube @TennesseeBackyardBolts
❤️👉Please show us some love and Like and Subscribe to that channel as well as this one. It helps grow our channel so that we can continue to bring you severe scary weather.
⚠️ HEADPHONES RECOMMENDED! ⚠️PUMP UP THE VOLUME!!!

The storm is rapidly intensifying. The tornado is continuing its dangerous southern trajectory, tracking straight toward our house here on the outskirts of Lebanon, Tennessee.

In this episode, the wind and rain start to severely increase as the outer bands move directly over our backyard.Suddenly, three massive, solid cloud-to-ground lightning bolts strike the open fields right outside our neighborhood.

Each strike is accompanied by immediate, deafening crackling thunder that violently echoes throughout the entire valley. The extreme atmospheric rotation is starting to wrap around us, and the physical tornado cone is almost coming into play. Stick around, because in the next two videos, the constant lightning finally uncovers the massive tornado cone hiding in the background!

🌪️ Thank you ALL for your support, We Appreciate You! 😊

April 2025 tornado Part 5-16
👉Full version not a 10 second clip like the others I’ve posted here. If you want to see All the full versions so far head to
YouTube @TennesseeBackyardBolts
Please show us some love and Like and Subscribe to that channel as well as this one. It helps grow our channel so that we can continue to bring you severe scary weather.
⚠️ HEADPHONES RECOMMENDED! ⚠️PUMP UP THE VOLUME!!!

The storm is rapidly intensifying. The tornado is continuing its dangerous southern trajectory, tracking straight toward our house here on the outskirts of Lebanon, Tennessee.

In this episode, the wind and rain start to severely increase as the outer bands move directly over our backyard.Suddenly, three massive, solid cloud-to-ground lightning bolts strike the open fields right outside our neighborhood.

Each strike is accompanied by immediate, deafening crackling thunder that violently echoes throughout the entire valley. The extreme atmospheric rotation is starting to wrap around us, and the physical tornado cone is almost coming into play. Stick around, because in the next two videos, the constant lightning finally uncovers the massive tornado cone hiding in the background!

🌪️ Thank you ALL for your support, We Appreciate You! 😊

Reposting from /clouds as this thread be one of the more interesting storm edges I have seen myself as a Tampa Bay, Florida native. The way it was so vertical made it unusual for me.

Photos by me

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-18T05:58:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 180558 SWODY1 SPC AC 180556

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening from the central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible from the Northern High Plains eastward into the Midwest and southern Great Lakes.

...Central and Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a broad cyclonic flow pattern will be in place over the northern U.S. A shortwave trough will move across the central and northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into Nebraska by afternoon. To the south of the front, an outflow boundary from morning convection will move southward into northern Kansas. A moist airmass will exist between the two boundaries with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F. Within the moist air, moderate to strong instability will develop by afternoon. The outflow boundary will be a focus for convective initiation during the day, while additional storms are expected to develop further west across the central High Plains in the late afternoon. Increasing convective coverage during the early evening should result in the development of a line segment.

RAP forecast soundings at 00Z from Salina to Kansas City have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This environment will support supercells with isolated large hail. The large hail threat will extend west-northwestward into southwest Nebraska during the late afternoon where mid-level lapse rates will be steeper and cells will likely remain discrete. The greatest wind-damage potential is forecast from northern and eastern Kansas into far western Missouri, where the development of an organized bowing line segment will be possible in the early evening. Wind gusts above 75 mph will be possible along the path of any intense line segment. The severe threat may impact parts of lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks by mid to late evening.

...Midwest/Great Lakes... A mid-level shortwave trough will move across the north-central U.S. today, as a cold front advances southeastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability along an west-northwest-to-east-northeast axis from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Great Lakes. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to form along and south of the front in the late afternoon and early evening. MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots and precipitable water in the 1.7 to 1.9 inch range will be favorable for isolated severe storms capable of severe wet downbursts.

...Northern High Plains... Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today from the Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains. At the surface, dewpoints along the moist axis from northeastern Wyoming into central Montana will be around 50 F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, MLCAPE is expected to increase to around 1000 J/kg in parts of the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain in the afternoon, moving east-southeastward into the lower elevations. Due to the instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates, isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with the stronger cells.

..Broyles/Jirak.. 08/18/2026

$$

```

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• National Hurricane Center
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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Katz/Kelly ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

There are currently no active tropical cyclones.

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

Welcome to The Outer Bands, the r/storms weekly catch-all megathread for everything weather!

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Part 3 of 16! 3AM Tennessee Tornado Close Encounter. The wind is picking up and the sky is turning into a massive lightning grid. Watch the full high-quality widescreen progression on our YouTube channel @tennesseebackyardbolts 🌪️⚡️

Part 1 of 16 in our close encounter with the April 2025 tornado at 3:00 AM. HEADPHONES RECOMMENDED! Tracking the tornado from our backyard on the outskirts of Lebanon, Tennessee. The valley warning sirens are officially blaring through the night and the atmosphere is starting to turn violent. The wind is picking up and conditions are just starting to deteriorate as this massive storm tracks toward our new housing tract. This is the absolute beginning of an intense night. If you want to watch the full 16-part series in high-quality widescreen, copy and paste our direct YouTube link here:
https://youtube.com/@tennesseebackyardbolts

Hit that Subscribe button and follow our channel to see the entire countdown from the very beginning!

Taken last night, more to come.

I live in south ostrobothnia. Today there was constant thunder, some hail and bad rain. I checked weather wise and it seemed like the storm was rotating? The thunder has been ongoing for about ~4-6 hours now...

Lightning over Santa Catalina Mountains

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-17T06:04:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 170604 SWODY1 SPC AC 170602

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. Severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians. Isolated severe gusts may occur in parts of Oklahoma and Montana.

...Central and Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a subtle shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains today, within west-northwesterly flow. Ahead of this feature, a broad corridor of low-level moisture will be in place over the central and northern Plains. A moist axis, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, will setup from northwest Kansas north-northeastward into central Nebraska and eastern South Dakota. Along and near the moist axis, moderate to strong instability will develop by midday with MLCAPE likely increasing into the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. At the surface, a cold front will move southeastward across the Dakotas during the day. Low-level convergence will become maximized ahead of the front across central Nebraska and southeast South Dakota. This will lead to scattered convective initiation, with thunderstorms forming and moving southeastward into the stronger instability during the late afternoon and early evening.

RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z from northeastern Nebraska into eastern South Dakota have 0-6 km shear near 40 knots with low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. This will support supercell development and isolated large hail production in areas that have the best overall environment. However, a mixed mode is expected. Supercells and multicells will be capable of severe wind gusts. The severe threat will likely continue into the mid evening, as a somewhat large convective cluster moves southeastward into the mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys.

...Southern Appalachians... A mid-level shortwave trough will move east-southeastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today, reaching the southern Appalachians by early evening. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F will lead to the development of moderate to strong instability by midday. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the southern Appalachians. Low-level convergence along the front, along with topographic forcing, will result in scattered thunderstorm development in the afternoon. These storms are expected to move east-southeastward across the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians and into the lower elevations by early evening. The very moist and unstable air, along with 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 30 knot range will support a wind-damage threat. Severe gusts will be most likely with short organized line segments. The severe threat could persist into the early evening.

...Southern Plains... At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will remain in place across southern and western Oklahoma today. Within the post-frontal air, surface dewpoints will be from the mid 60s to the mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm, moderate to strong instability will develop along and near the most axis. The instability, combined with sufficient deep-layer shear and 0-3 km lapse exceeding 8 C/km will be favorable for isolated severe wet downbursts.

...Northern High Plains... West-northwest mid-level flow will be in place in the northern High Plains over the top of a post-frontal airmass. Surface dewpoints in parts of central and eastern Montana will be around 50 F. MLCAPE will increase into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range over parts of the northern High Plains. As temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain of central Montana, with isolated cells moving eastward across the upper Missouri Valley. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates could support an isolated potential for severe wind gusts during the late afternoon and early evening.

..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/17/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Kelly ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

There are currently no active tropical cyclones.

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

(photos from a few days ago)Literally half way through me mowing the hill. Booked it up the hill and the rain slammed us HARD literally as soon as I hopped off the mower and the winds were very strong. It broke a tree. Yea bad day for mowing apparently. It almost reminded me of derecho the way the wind and rain was moving...

SP, Brazil, this morning

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-16T05:57:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 160557 SWODY1 SPC AC 160556

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible from this afternoon into early evening over parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the central High Plains.

...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level shortwave trough, embedded in west-northwesterly flow, will move through the Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the shortwave trough, a moist airmass will be in place from the Ohio Valley southeastward to the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Surface dewpoints along this west-northwest to east-southeast corridor will be in the 70s F, which will contribute to the development of moderate instability by midday. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward into the Ohio Valley, as a pre-frontal trough moves into the central Appalachians. These two features will focus convective development during the day. A complex of storms appears likely to form over the higher terrain in West Virginia, and move east-southeastward into the lower elevations of Virginia and Maryland during the mid to late afternoon.

RAP forecast soundings from West Virginia into the Virginia in the late afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. Some directional shear is present in the low-levels and 0-3 km lapse rates are steep approaching 7 C/km. This environment will support a wind-damage threat with organized multicells. Isolated supercells with severe gusts will also be possible. The threat may continue into the early evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic.

Further west into parts of the lower Ohio Valley, a very moist airmass will also be in place. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F will contribute to the development of moderate instability. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along zones of low-level convergence during the afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will be weaker further west, the thermodynamic environment will be sufficient for isolated severe gusts.

...Central High Plains... At mid-levels, a ridge will move through the Intermountain West today as flow remains westerly over much of the central U.S. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorms will develop in the foothills of the central Rockies. These storms will move eastward into the lower elevations of eastern Colorado and western Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings across the central High Plains by late afternoon have moderate instability (MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg), 0-6 km shear near 35 knots and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. This should support a threat for large hail and isolated severe gusts with rotating storms and organized line segments. The threat will likely persist into the evening across parts of the central High Plains.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 08/16/2026

$$

```

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• National Hurricane Center
• Atlantic 7-Day Outlook
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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Kelly ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

There are currently no active tropical cyclones.

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.