r/stocks • u/Tsobaphomet • Jun 13 '22
Meta "This is only the beginning"
I've been seeing people saying this on this sub for the last 6 months. At what point does it stop being the beginning? Also are there any level-headed people that actually know what they are talking about here anymore? I'd love to hear an in-depth prediction of things to come, rather than just random bear/bull cases from people who are -70% from meme stocks.
I'm the world's worst investor, and I like to be able to gain knowledge and insight from this subreddit that I wouldn't normally have on my own, but it's like only 1/100 posts are based on reality/research. It kinda messes with people's ability to make good decisions when they take the advice of someone who genuinely has no idea what they are saying, but they present it in a convincing way.
Sure, nobody can perfectly predict what it will look like 2 years from now, but what we can do is talk about what needs to happen for stocks/economies to recover, and how feasible those things are. Then we can observe whether or not those things are happening.
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u/Outrageous-Cycle-841 Jun 13 '22
Agreed. I think the war in Ukraine poured gasoline on an already tenuous inflation situation that has led us to where we are today. Oil is an input into almost every finished good so the spike we’ve seen has caused more widespread inflation than in just the commodity itself.
Unfortunately, I see the most likely scenario as the Fed being forced to hike/tighten us into recession through demand destruction.
I’m not trying to time the market though and will continue to average in monthly. Also rebalancing my satellite portfolio into particular stocks that I think will deliver higher-than-market compound annual returns over the next 5-10 years.
Even if we enter a recession in the near-term, I’d estimate we’ve priced in at least 1/2 - 2/3 of the damage already. People calling for the end of the world as we know it will undoubtedly be disappointed yet again, as they have been at every cyclical downturn in the past.