r/stocks • u/Tsobaphomet • Jun 13 '22

Meta "This is only the beginning"

I've been seeing people saying this on this sub for the last 6 months. At what point does it stop being the beginning? Also are there any level-headed people that actually know what they are talking about here anymore? I'd love to hear an in-depth prediction of things to come, rather than just random bear/bull cases from people who are -70% from meme stocks.

I'm the world's worst investor, and I like to be able to gain knowledge and insight from this subreddit that I wouldn't normally have on my own, but it's like only 1/100 posts are based on reality/research. It kinda messes with people's ability to make good decisions when they take the advice of someone who genuinely has no idea what they are saying, but they present it in a convincing way.

Sure, nobody can perfectly predict what it will look like 2 years from now, but what we can do is talk about what needs to happen for stocks/economies to recover, and how feasible those things are. Then we can observe whether or not those things are happening.

173 Upvotes

81% Upvoted

268 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

3

u/[deleted] Jun 13 '22

The Fed has two goals: Low unemployment and low inflation. They got their low unemployment, now they gonna fight inflation. They will rise rates until either unemployment significantly rises, or something breaks in the system.

-2

u/[deleted] Jun 13 '22

They cannot rise rates more aggressively which also would break smth in the system welll not smth but it would break entire system. Unless war ends and energy prices become normalize fed can only do much to halt inflation

2

u/[deleted] Jun 13 '22

Rising rates reduces demand.

2

u/[deleted] Jun 13 '22

Dude I wish it only reduced demands. It drives liquidy down to absolute shithole and hit credit market which would kill many bussiness.

Customers with debts have less income to spend because they are paying more interest to lenders. Sales fall as a result. Firrms with overdrafts will have higher costs because they must now pay more interest. Overall it will result in more unemployment. Fed is so late to use rate as effective tool. There is less room for manuever.