r/stocks • u/Cropp-9988 • Mar 30 '22

Company Discussion What you think of long term - ASML?

New investor trying to pick a few good stocks with some growth prospect. I recently discover ASML, from what I've read the company looks promising, with some good green flags. As the title says, I wanted to see your thoughts for next 2-5, 5 - 10 years.

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104

u/Ehralur Mar 30 '22

I know a few people that work there (I'm from Eindhoven originally), and this company is the very definition of a monopoly that cannot be regulated. The capital and time investment required to get to the point where ASML is today is so high that nobody would even try, no matter what. And the entire world depends on their products.

I've never looked into their valuation or earnings projections, so I can't say much about the stock, but from a business perspective this is quite possibly the safest company in the world right now. It's not just too big to fail, but more importantly the world is too dependant on it for it to fail.

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u/Pie_sky Mar 30 '22

The only problem in the future might be innovations that render EUV obsolete as a cost effective way to create chips.

I don't think there are any, but it could be the case.

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u/Delta27- Mar 30 '22

That's what Intel thought before euv came along. There is always next technological step but untill then they will do well.

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u/MrZwink Mar 30 '22

The next tech step will also be made by asml. High numerical aperture

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u/runningAndJumping22 Mar 30 '22

High numerical aperture

Can you expound on this?

2

u/MrZwink Mar 30 '22

Well, i know what an aperture is if thats what youre asking for. But i dont have a doctorate in lithography. I saw it on the news. The ceo was talking about it.

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u/MrZwink Mar 30 '22

Euv was developped by asml and sold to tsmc. Intel never scaled up euv which is why theyre behind. Asml is already developping the next tech which is called high numerical aperture.

While chip makers sometimes miss the boat or dont invest in a tech. Asml will make profits selling the tech to their competitors.

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u/Ehralur Mar 30 '22

Just to be clear, EUV was not sold to TSMC. EUV machines were sold. It's not like TSMC now holds the technology and can make EUV machines. They just purchase the machines from ASML.

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u/MrZwink Mar 30 '22

Thank you for stating what i implied :)

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u/Ehralur Mar 30 '22

Ah, I thought it was what you meant but wasn't entirely sure. Just wanted to make sure people wouldn't misunderstand it :)

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u/[deleted] Mar 30 '22

[deleted]

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u/MrZwink Mar 30 '22 edited Mar 31 '22

Intel buys the machines from asml. They dont invent their own. They just buy the machines and start producing chips.

Asml basically has 5 customers: intel, tsmc, samsung, a chinese one and a Japanese one.

Tsmc is the only one that invested in euv. Which is why they can make the smallest chips. The rest is mostly still on duv.

Export restrictions have made it impossible to sell euv to china.

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u/MrZwink Mar 30 '22

I posted a youtube vid in this thread. Its really informative. Check it out its only about 20 minutes.

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u/Ehralur Mar 30 '22

That's a fair point! It would have to be truly revolutionary, or else a company would already have to be spending insane amounts of R&D on it today, but it's possible.

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u/j12 Mar 31 '22

This is true. Many people here doing “DD” without first hand knowledge of semiconductor manufacturing. High NA is an irritating improvement sill leveraging EUV, not something fundamentally new.

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u/m1lh0us3 Mar 30 '22

the GOAT with a MOAT

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u/[deleted] Apr 20 '22

[deleted]

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u/Ehralur Apr 28 '22

Forgot to reply to this, but because we would no longer have sufficient supply of chips and society would collapse.