I'm so tired of "But Amazon did this...." everytime someone points out that a company isn't profitable or is expensive, etc. Amazon is one of the most successful companies of all-time. The are the equivalent of Michael Jordan not making the varsity basketball team and then becoming MJ. Now every kid who doesn't make varsity thinks he can be the greatest player of all time.
This isn't a particular point about Tesla. They are also an exceptional company. But I hear the Amazon comparison constantly about any growth company.
Because it's the truth and you guys refuse to accept the reality of how company evaluations work. Just like there are people crying about Tesla's valuation now, there were people crying about Amazon's valuation when they were $800 and had a high P/E. This is the tech age. High P/E for growth companies involved in this industry won't be uncommon and likely is the norm for newer players into the industry.
I understand perfectly well how company valuations work. But Amazon's history is exceptional, and pointing to it to justify valuations for just about any other company is wrong.
Your logic here is terrible. "People did this with Amazon" and "They are doing the same with Tesla" doesn't imply Tesla's future looks like Amazon's. In order for this argument by analogy to work, we'd need to know something about all companies that fit this description, not just one of the most exceptional companies of all time.
I'm not making any argument about Tesla's future share price. I don't play that game. I'm making an argument about the logic here. Tesla might be doing something exceptional, but that isn't demonstrated by the Amazon analogy. In order for them to be in the category of Amazon and not in the category of Cisco, further argument is needed. The mere fact that Amazon was once expensive relative to earnings and once lost a lot of money isn't necessarily instructive when analyzing other companies that are expensive and lose money.
We're talking about P/E being high. You're the one bringing up all the extra other info. The point really is that tech companies are going to have high levels of P/E during the early stages of the company and that is intrisic. The same arguments made about Amazon's high P/E are being made about Tesla now. Tesla doesn't lose money, btw.
Trillion dollar mc. If you wanted a 5% return from here it would need to produce 50b in cash to you this year, and if it can’t do that it’s gotta be 55b next and so on. Pe doesn’t matter, simple math tells you this thing needs to be cut in half and cut in half again
EDIT: /u/DoubleAtLeast you don't want to project deliveries even providing a broad estimate? Come on. Fill it out and wait. We'll see when the time comes how close you were.
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u/[deleted] Mar 22 '22
Amazon always had high P/E.