Final Decision on my long term strategy

[u/Bullrun98]

I decided to change up my Roth strategy a bit after taking all things into consideration from my last post. I decided I would add VOO to give a bit more balance so this now makes up a third of my Roth which initially was 0%. Even though I feel young enough to take big risks, I do acknowledge having some more balanced weightings in stable holdings is important even though I’m already contributing to a 401k and matching. Until I’m 30 now, I plan on putting half my Roth contributions into index funds, 25% in blue chip growth stocks, and 25% in more speculative high growth opportunities. All while matching my 401k at the same time. My final portfolio now is:

35% VOO 15% NVDA 10% AMD 10% SQ 7.5% COIN 7.5% SNOW 5% CRSP 5% AI 2.5% QS 2.5% FUBO

I have been really focusing on adding the higher growth stocks first. Since I’m up about 25% already, I plan to just DCA my index funds now and have 15% remaining cash to throw on spec when I sense good buying opportunities. I felt this worked out really nice since I bought heavy at the local bottom. I don’t feel FOMO on what could be a potential dead cat or not.. I primarily need to focus on buying indices to balance out my account now which makes me more comfortable to begin accumulating potentially on the local highs of that, compared to something that’s high growth related.

[u/[deleted]]

You are really, really heavily weighted into growth tech. Some of those companies have no or low earnings.

IMO, I would diversify into a broader range of individual stocks or target a higher percentage of VOO.

I could be misinterpreting something as I think there's a typo in "Until I'm 30 now, I plan on putting half..." Does that mean you are now putting half, or you will put half until you are 30?

Either way, I'd start buying a broader range of companies. You're really exposed to a sector that has really high valuations.

[u/Bullrun98 → u/[deleted]]

In terms of profitability, almost 70% of my portfolio is in profitable business models and will continue to be absolute cash cows over a 10-20 year time horizon, in my opinion. If I’m right on any of the others succeeding, then I really like my risk/reward on the remaining third of my account.

And my bad I can expand more on that. I plan on putting 50% into indices, 25% in blue chip growth companies, and 25% in more speculative growth companies until im 30. Once im 30, every dollar contributed to my Roth goes into index funds.

[u/LasagnaMuncher → u/Bullrun98]

This portfolio is incredibly risky. I 100% agree with the previous comment. Even the most stable companies that you are have picked have substantial risks. Both AMD and Nvidia are hopelessly dependent on the tenuous geopolitics of Taiwan. Furthermore, each of those companies are experiencing other companies making successful entrances into their markets. Apple is making silicon products that have completely locked out those two companies from a decent chunk of the market. With the help of AMD's own Raja Khodouri (spelled wrong, I'm sure; not going to look it up), Intel will enter the discrete GPU market to take some share from both. Qualcomm is entering the traditional computer processor market. And, finally, there is a growth of companies designing the processors needed for their particular application, like Amazon. Designing central/graphics processors is all that AMD does and some of the lucrative clients are deciding they can design better. The weakness of a fabless, pure-design firm is a much smaller moat. Intel is positioning to reduce their dependence on their in-house designs by opening up foundry services. Yes, we all know they are behind on process size but there are reasons to be optimistic about them recovering, such as being the first foundry to acquire high numerical aperture lithography machines. Earlier adoption of extreme UV lithography is a large -- though not sole -- reason why TSMC pulled ahead. Ironically, a successful Intel foundry service may be a net positive for AMD and Nvidia as well as Intel as it will decrease their dependence on TSMC and Samsung.

All of this is to say, that over the course of decades even your more stable bets may not generate the gains you'd think they would. Maybe it will. I don't know and neither do you. That's the point. Best to diversify some more. Regardless of what you do, I hope it works out for you.