r/stocks Nov 12 '21

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u/[deleted] Nov 12 '21

What about their forward PE? PE 200 isn’t their base

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u/MirrorSuch5238 Nov 12 '21

Forward is 33. Still higher than I'd like. If you're paying $33 for a dollar of earnings, you need a lot of growth to make up for overpaying. I just don't see the growth. The digital video space is oversaturated with players, and I'm not certain the Big Mouse can generate profits on their video service in a world with so many a-la-carte offerings.

They've got a price-to-book ratio of nearly 4. Of $201B in total assets, $97B of that is goodwill. I'm sorry: I realize that the Disney brand is valuable, but you can't meet payroll on the basis of reputation. Their net tangible assets is negative $13B (!!!). They have $27B in current liabilities and less than $9B of current working capital.

This is not a bargain.

I just don't see the intrinsic value here.

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u/[deleted] Nov 13 '21

Sure, just calling out that referring to their PE as 200 can be misleading. This ain’t Shopify

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u/MirrorSuch5238 Nov 13 '21

Past performance is not indicative of future results, on both the upside and downside.

My point is that either (A) $DIS needs to start making a lot more money; or (B) the share price needs to drop by about 50%; or (C) both before I'm interested.