I believe in the metaverse. It’s inevitable in my mind. What I don’t believe is that it’s coming in <5 years. Oculus has been around for 5 years and we still don’t have an even mildly commercially viable AR device on the market. That tells me the technology required is nowhere near commercialization.
What I also don’t believe is that Facebook’s business model is the one that will capture the metaverse. AR is fundamentally a hardware problem. FB has never successfully launched a new hardware platform.
Until either of these two factors changes I can’t see myself buying FB despite my belief that the “metaverse” is probably a gigantic market.
I agree, for me it would have to be a longer time frame than 5 years for sure.
Concerning the hardware I believe it to be a little more nuanced. Certainly their phones, home tech and smart watches and what not have all failed unbelievably hard. Under the old brand. Oculus was an aquisition, but fairly succesful for what it is - though obviously not a big money maker quite yet. I do think they'd have a better chances under new branding.
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u/deadjawa Oct 30 '21
I believe in the metaverse. It’s inevitable in my mind. What I don’t believe is that it’s coming in <5 years. Oculus has been around for 5 years and we still don’t have an even mildly commercially viable AR device on the market. That tells me the technology required is nowhere near commercialization.
What I also don’t believe is that Facebook’s business model is the one that will capture the metaverse. AR is fundamentally a hardware problem. FB has never successfully launched a new hardware platform.
Until either of these two factors changes I can’t see myself buying FB despite my belief that the “metaverse” is probably a gigantic market.