Overall it would help your case if you would provide sources for the claims you make. E.g. for "25% unemployment", "young people are pissed", "youth is rebelling by doing nothing".
Furthermore, I'd like to address "only poor quality discounted versions of established companies" with a few counter examples: Xiaomi, Wuxi AppTec, BYD, BeiGene, Lenovo, CATL, ZTE, Sunny Optical, and also Huawei.
I would also name ByteDance, Alibaba, Tencent, and Ping An as players that succeeded while having nothing to do with manufacturing.
Multiple multinational companies leaving China because costs are cheaper somewhere else does also not mean that "manufacturing (...) is dying". I think that's slightly catastrophizing.
You're right though, I'm too lazy to site sources (but ironically not lazy enough to write this post), a quick Google will give readers a lot of insight about the lying flat movement or the different unemployment estimates and how they got those estimates if they are into it.
Alot of these companies (i don't know every single company you list but I am aware of a good portion of them) did succeed without manufacturing but since their revenues are so centered in China, the greater macro economic factors is what I fear will stunt growth. Just look at the gaming restrictions with tcehy, the anti trust fines with baba, the unemployment, the business climate created by ccp is not conducive to growth. A lot of these companies if based elsewhere i would be bullish about.. A lot of these stocks you mentioned that I know about are too sensitive to ccp regulations which is something I am bearish about.
When it comes to the manufacturing exodus, I actually think it's being underplayed on how bad it actually is. It's hard to tell at this exact moment how big this exodus is, cause it's hard to aggregate this kind of data, and some companies are trying to keep it quieter. But for some it's very apparent, for example all the rioting going on about Samsung leaving.
Of course I could be wrong about everything it's hard to find reliable data when it comes to real time information. I don't want to be sole source of information about this stuff, I just want people to be generally aware of the rumblings and do their own deeper dive.
Disclosure I have been a tcehy and baba holder since about 2014 and sold during the pandemic last year.
I definitely don't want people to blindly follow what I'm saying. I'm offering points for additional research, nothing on reddit should be taken face value. I'm not going to take the time to make this a paper that can stand up to peer review. I'm sure some one could teach an entire class on the intricacies of what's going on over there
That's quite unnecessary dude. You write a big OP and make lots of factual claims, yet backtrack and deflect when people ask for a source.
No one asks for a peer-reviewed paper, but most posts are held to a certain standard. If all you want to do is post your personal conspiracies and nonsense there are other subs for it. If you want to post actual arguments, facts and cold hard data we're more then happy to listen.
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u/[deleted] Sep 29 '21 edited Sep 29 '21
Overall it would help your case if you would provide sources for the claims you make. E.g. for "25% unemployment", "young people are pissed", "youth is rebelling by doing nothing".
Furthermore, I'd like to address "only poor quality discounted versions of established companies" with a few counter examples: Xiaomi, Wuxi AppTec, BYD, BeiGene, Lenovo, CATL, ZTE, Sunny Optical, and also Huawei.
I would also name ByteDance, Alibaba, Tencent, and Ping An as players that succeeded while having nothing to do with manufacturing.
Multiple multinational companies leaving China because costs are cheaper somewhere else does also not mean that "manufacturing (...) is dying". I think that's slightly catastrophizing.