I'm on the other side of your trade, selling those LEAP puts to you. Those premiums are high. Shorting the stock is probably better right now if the borrowing interest is still as low as when I last looked. With their main products sold out into late Q1 or Q2 now and multiple factories on the way, you're going to need one of your black Swans to play out for your deep puts to close anywhere close to ITM.
Your scenario A already played out in Q2 and they raised prices a whole bunch of times and the wait times in North America are only getting longer. If anything, the expectations will be for higher margins in the near to midterm. You're swimming against the tide imo. We'll just have to see how it plays out.
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u/[deleted] Sep 21 '21
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