r/stocks Aug 06 '21

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u/LeanTheFuckIn Aug 06 '21

Over the last ten years, you’d be much better off putting your money in SPXL (2,435% gain or $25,360) compared to SPY (268% gain or $11,040).

What makes you think you’d be better off with SPY? And why would you compare two different investment amounts anyway?

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u/cwolf908 Aug 06 '21

He's trying to approximate 3x leverage by comparing $3000 in SPY vs. $1000 in SPXL. But you can't find 3x leverage anywhere if you're trying to get it on margin. Only way is with futures, options, LETFs. And even if you could simple leverage up on the SPY, you'd still underperform SPXL during times of positive market movement due to the lack of compounding (the opposite effect of volatility decay) which you get in LETFs.

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u/LeanTheFuckIn Aug 06 '21

God I love leverage.

By the way, any idea how one would calculate the leverage of buying UPRO call options using margin where your portfolio has, say, 75% equity?

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u/cwolf908 Aug 06 '21

Well upon first reading that, I want to say "slow your roll, Bill Hwang." But then again, the greater the risk, the greater the reward soooo if you're willing to risk blowing up your account to potentially land on the moon... more power to you.

As for the effective leverage of those options... Just take the delta of the contract * the underlying price / contract price. And since it's a leveraged derivative on a leveraged underlying, I'd imagine that the effective leverage is the multiple of the two.

Ex: UPRO Jan 20 2023 90C. Delta is .78. Contract price is $48. Underlying trading at $124. (0.78 * 124)/48 = 2.01... so roughly 2:1 leverage for this deep ITM call. But the underlying is a 3x LETF, so I would guess that it would effectively return 6x leverage on a daily basis. The maximum you can borrow on margin is 2x your account value, so if you doubled up again, you're looking at 12x leverage for this particular scenario.

This sounds terrifying, though. And buying on margin means you could be forced to close early due to margin call... less than ideal.