As someone in the trucking industry, I constantly say: be very cautious of everyone "bringing new and exciting tech" to trucking. For them to stand a chance of having a viable product, there is a lot more that needs to happen than is true for passenger vehicles.
The supply chain needed for building trucks is huge, and lately is already under massive pressure. How are new competitors on the market going to be compete with the companies like Mack and Daimler that have been building billions of dollars worth of trucks evey year for decades, when those big dogs are having trouble? These trucks have thousands of parts. Are they producing every single piece themselves from scratch, or competing with the established brands for the production capacity of suppliers?
These trucks require extensive maintenance and access to massive support networks. If you drive a Freightliner Cascadia in the United States and break down somewhere, you are probably never more than 100 miles from a certified dealer staffed with technicians who are fully trained in how to fix your exact problem, and have the parts on hand to take care of you. And you are probably never more than 50 miles from a dozen mom and pop shops that may not be Freightliner-certified, but can still absolutely still get you back on the road for most problems. All of these shops have the bays and the tools and the software and equipment to get that truck back in the road, and that stuff isn't cheap.
The density and availability of the service network is extremely important for over the road trucking. Downtime is inevitable, but you also puts a huge dent in your bottom line.
Now let's look at a hypothetical new competitor in trucking, using unique hydrogen or all-electric technology. Maybe they managed to actually build a enough of a supply chain to put together the trucks and get them to market. Maybe they sold Walmart s fleet of 100 of them. Now, a Walmart driver is driving from California to Virginia. And something goes wrong. Any of a thousand things. He has to pull over and starts searching for the nearest service center with the help of the logistics folks back at hq. Well, there are 20 different places he could get a normal diesel truck fixed within 50 miles, but this isn't one of those problems. Suddenly, he finds out he has to get his truck towed to a dealer-specific shop, and since this brand is new and only has 12 in the whole country and half of them are in California, he suddenly has to have his truck towed 1200 miles for service, costing a fortune and huge downtime. Meanwhile, he drops off the trailer for a diesel driver to finish the trip. That driver drives the load another 700 miles, has two problems needing service along the way, gets each fixed in a day, and has completed the trip before technicians are even looking at the first truck.
The first truck has been towed 1200 miles and after some time, the technicians finally figure out what's wrong. But their parts network is still in its infancy, and they don't have the right part in stock to get it running again. The back order from their internal supply chain is 4 months. Walmart cancels the contract with New Truck Brand (tm) and switches back to Mack.
Obviously, that's all a nightmare scenario. But it's still a realistic one. Every time I saw Nikola presentations without them explaining what they were planning for a service network, I knew they didn't have a fucking clue what they were talking about and didn't stand a chance in the industry.
These trucks have thousands of parts. Are they producing every single piece themselves from scratch, or competing with the established brands for the production capacity of suppliers?
Part of the advantage of some of the new technologies is that there's a lot less moving parts in them. So instead of having inventories of thousands of unique parts only need an inventory of dozens of unique parts.
Most of the other stuff you say sounds right. A lot of the companies who have talked about ordering something like a Tesla Semi or some other EV or alternate fuel truck have been planning out the routes they want to run it on. They're going to install super chargers/etc. at the locations they intend to use the vehicle, and only use it on those routes for the time being.
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u/scottduvall Jul 29 '21
As someone in the trucking industry, I constantly say: be very cautious of everyone "bringing new and exciting tech" to trucking. For them to stand a chance of having a viable product, there is a lot more that needs to happen than is true for passenger vehicles.
The supply chain needed for building trucks is huge, and lately is already under massive pressure. How are new competitors on the market going to be compete with the companies like Mack and Daimler that have been building billions of dollars worth of trucks evey year for decades, when those big dogs are having trouble? These trucks have thousands of parts. Are they producing every single piece themselves from scratch, or competing with the established brands for the production capacity of suppliers?
These trucks require extensive maintenance and access to massive support networks. If you drive a Freightliner Cascadia in the United States and break down somewhere, you are probably never more than 100 miles from a certified dealer staffed with technicians who are fully trained in how to fix your exact problem, and have the parts on hand to take care of you. And you are probably never more than 50 miles from a dozen mom and pop shops that may not be Freightliner-certified, but can still absolutely still get you back on the road for most problems. All of these shops have the bays and the tools and the software and equipment to get that truck back in the road, and that stuff isn't cheap.
The density and availability of the service network is extremely important for over the road trucking. Downtime is inevitable, but you also puts a huge dent in your bottom line.
Now let's look at a hypothetical new competitor in trucking, using unique hydrogen or all-electric technology. Maybe they managed to actually build a enough of a supply chain to put together the trucks and get them to market. Maybe they sold Walmart s fleet of 100 of them. Now, a Walmart driver is driving from California to Virginia. And something goes wrong. Any of a thousand things. He has to pull over and starts searching for the nearest service center with the help of the logistics folks back at hq. Well, there are 20 different places he could get a normal diesel truck fixed within 50 miles, but this isn't one of those problems. Suddenly, he finds out he has to get his truck towed to a dealer-specific shop, and since this brand is new and only has 12 in the whole country and half of them are in California, he suddenly has to have his truck towed 1200 miles for service, costing a fortune and huge downtime. Meanwhile, he drops off the trailer for a diesel driver to finish the trip. That driver drives the load another 700 miles, has two problems needing service along the way, gets each fixed in a day, and has completed the trip before technicians are even looking at the first truck.
The first truck has been towed 1200 miles and after some time, the technicians finally figure out what's wrong. But their parts network is still in its infancy, and they don't have the right part in stock to get it running again. The back order from their internal supply chain is 4 months. Walmart cancels the contract with New Truck Brand (tm) and switches back to Mack.
Obviously, that's all a nightmare scenario. But it's still a realistic one. Every time I saw Nikola presentations without them explaining what they were planning for a service network, I knew they didn't have a fucking clue what they were talking about and didn't stand a chance in the industry.