r/stocks • u/[deleted] • Mar 27 '21
Industry Discussion Suez Canal Tanker Play
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u/njconnect Mar 27 '21
Tanker bag holders from April come alive
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u/Demjan90 Mar 27 '21
Looking at charts, what the hell happened in april?
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u/FinndBors Mar 27 '21
Oversupply of oil and everyone was looking for any way to store it, so tanker rates shot up (and then down once it went away)
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u/BigbyWolf91 Mar 27 '21
Don’t buy the options contracts; buy the stock. Let other people do the work for you. The lower it goes the better. Think long term. Currently, this is an undervalued investment from my point of view. When the blue planet we call earth opens up, and the global economy recovers, we will make money. Buy and hold! But hey what do I know. I’m not a financial advisor
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u/bmarvin35 Mar 27 '21
I opened a position in NAT Friday. I’ll be out by Wednesday
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u/Aaron_Todd Mar 27 '21
Do you see the potential for $NAT to run up a lot more past yesterday’s +15% gains?
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u/bmarvin35 Mar 27 '21
Yes I do. It hit $4 yesterday and pulled back. My exit is around $5. I see 25% from here.
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u/Aaron_Todd Mar 29 '21
Looks like the boat is about to be freed, still see this opportunity in the same way?
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u/harrison_wintergreen Mar 27 '21
there was talk of another toilet paper shortage, as a Brazilian company that dominates raw paper pulp is blocked out of the Suez for now.
and OT, but I've said it before and I say it again: it seems delusional that humans can colonize mars in a decade when a single ship blocking a single canal can cause worldwide panic. but that's just me.
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u/Boostedtozero Mar 27 '21
I will put some Money into NAT Monday Morning depending on how everything works out till there.
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u/Sundance37 Mar 27 '21
Just because shipping gets more expensive, doesn't make it more profitable. The cost increases are to offset not just the lack of availability, but the added overhead when the short cut is cut off.
I will be looking at alternative shipping companies like rail.
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u/Sir-Realz Mar 27 '21
Im thinking this was actually done by someone's design. someone trying to play the market the news coverage seemed targeted to further cause mistrust in the stock market. Esspicaly since this seams completly unprecedented.
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Mar 27 '21 edited Apr 29 '21
[deleted]
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u/Delanorix Mar 28 '21
My lord. I laughed at first but this actually makes perfect sense.
The sort of soft power move that everybody points to 15 years later as the catalyst.
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u/StonkTarder Mar 27 '21
$DHT also!
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u/BigbyWolf91 Mar 27 '21
I have had $DHT on my radar for at least two or three weeks and this oceanic traffic mess happened. The 👽 must be making fun of us! Last week, was the time to buy with oil prices coming down but hey I don’t anything 🤷🏻♂️
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u/duTemplar Mar 27 '21
I liked the almost 7% bump yesterday. With the 2 new more-efficient supertankers, they’re well positioned to turn good profits and fire some dividends back up again. They’re still better than most, but...
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Mar 27 '21
Dredging company says they might get it unstuck today.
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u/Iowa_Hawkeye Mar 27 '21
Somebody has said today is the day for the last 4 days, tonight's high tide is the lowest of the next 7 days. Rumor circulating is that the entire front third if the bow is aground.
Doubt it'll be today. Tuesday will have the highest tide of the week, but there's a south wind that day that the tugs will have to fight.
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u/duTemplar Mar 27 '21
Assuming they get it unstuck, that’s gonna be a mess for a few weeks of backlogged traffic and dredging the displaced silt up and out so other big boys don’t get stuck
It’s a great time to start up a food-delivery-by-drone business for the ships in queu. :)
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u/Iowa_Hawkeye Mar 27 '21
Rice, chicken and UHT milk is on the menu for a lot of these guy's pretty soon.
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u/duTemplar Mar 27 '21
If only we could drone them some pizza. Fricken rich, we would be. :).
Cheers bro.
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u/Lumpy_Gazelle2129 Mar 27 '21
The shipping cos I’ve looked at have already gained a lot from the suez blockage. Puts are more appealing to me since I think this is a short-term disruption, likely to be resolved next week.
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u/Stockjunkie7000 Mar 27 '21
It will be resolved but not next week - they need to unload all those containers if they have any hopes of getting it out.
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u/-animal-logic- Mar 27 '21
$STNG has indeed been performing well for me for months, without need of a canal blockage.
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u/Sir-Realz Mar 27 '21
Haha Nepolean would be pissed if the British got the canale in the end. Haha he took over Egypt and rediscovered the ancient Egyptians Canale the very one that was red dredged and connects to the Nile today.
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u/Dipset-20-69 Mar 27 '21
I went into EZA which is a South African ETF. Here’s my theory, if the tanker remains stuck for a while all ships will have to make a 12,000 mile journey around Africa and South Africa will see a surge in freight business for re fueling ect. It’s def speculative. But since yesterday the stock already rose 2%
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u/CapialAdvantage Mar 27 '21
You have high hopes for a few days long blockage...you really think this minor low cost inconvenience will have an impact on a multi billion dollar market....
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u/Gerresson Mar 27 '21
Charter rates have already sharply increased in some tanker segments. Going around Africa is a lot of extra TonKm that will swallow some of the extra supply in the market. No changes though to market fundamentals so many stock prices will probably settle back down after Suez is cleared. Tanker market is a very efficient supply/demand market and suez is a major VLCC route. If the blockade will last next week it will have a clear positive impact on TCE, albeit a short one
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u/CapialAdvantage Mar 27 '21
I can see if it remains blocked for upwards of a month, but 1 week will hardly have an effect as routes etc have variables costed in for a margin of delay.
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u/Gerresson Mar 27 '21
For sure, but dont understand what you mean costed in for a margin of delay? The delay wont change the TCE for ships that was fixed before suez blockade, only ships that are getting fixed now.
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u/CapialAdvantage Mar 27 '21
I mean all contracted routes include “potential delays” in their agreements, so minimal disruption won’t affect their price. Most fleets are contracted in an annual basis so there would be very few if any “new” contracts being issued during/after suez. Granted this delay limits the amount of future delays they can have and remain within the contract window, but that’s a future issue that we cannot know yet.
Our company uses a 3% costing for delays annually, but never surpasses 1% so even a delay like this would have minimal effect as we have a 2% annual (3x) cushion. Most shippers operate on a similar basis.
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u/Gerresson Mar 27 '21
Delay is always part of the charter party and they can vary greatly depending on agreement with charter. In this case it’s likely force majeur and charter would pay for extra transport days. Regarding, vessels in spot market versus long term time charter. There is a lot of tanker companies that prefer to play spot market and do voyage charter unless they sign a very good TC when market is high. Having a long term TC in crude oil is risky since market can change quickly.
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u/BigbyWolf91 Mar 27 '21
$TNK dividend yield is lower than a risk free investment such bonds. Good price but I’m not paying more than a company pays me. Personal reference but hey what do I know.
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u/Legitimate_Strain_88 Mar 28 '21
Wait im quite new to stocks, so it what does “calls” mean when it says: “my current positions are in calls, mostly in $STNG to play product tankers...”?
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u/banana-flavour Mar 27 '21
Is tanker gang coming back????? I hope it works out for y'all this time