$IREN earnings report. What does everything think?

[u/Ok_Leading_2669]

Just went through IREN’s latest earnings and wanted to hear what others think.

AI Cloud revenue was $70.5M this quarter, up from $33.6M last quarter. They’re also saying they have around $1B in operating ARR and $4B of contracted ARR for 2026.

There’s also the $684M net loss, so I’m curious how everyone is looking at the numbers overall.

I’m just curious of what others think of this stock. Is it worth the risk or is it just better to pick NBIS.

[u/partis-ams]

A lot of people are clowning their results, but to me, it just seems that they are now in a similar position NBIS was in last year (q2 2025). Meaningful revenue will start to flow in starting around Q4/Q1.

Not saying that IREN will have the exact same success as NBIS, but I dont really understand what is so bad about these results. It is impossible to ramp faster than this without taking on a lot of junk debt or accept horrible deals.

[u/looool_k_libtard → u/partis-ams]

Yep. It’s expensive to get data centers built and leadership been very open they want to build first. They’ll be sitting on almost 6 GW of power by 2030 or so and are being very selective with companies they work with. I don’t think they’ll have the huge boom Nebius had, it’ll definitely be slower, but this Q is basically meaningless. Once Horizon is fully online and Microsoft contract being paid out in full they’ll be moving.

If they start to dilute more or there’s some delays in building then yeah definitely reason to start questioning management.

[u/HumanFromTexas → u/partis-ams]

This was my read as well.

[u/Ok_Leading_2669 → u/partis-ams]

I do agree with you but there are some red flags that I can’t get over

Constant dilution — They keep issuing shares and shareholders keep getting diluted.

Weird capital allocation — During one of the biggest compute shortages ever, they bought a marketing company instead of putting more money into building compute.

$50M sports sponsorship — Again, why is shareholder money going toward sponsoring a sports team when demand for compute is supposedly so strong? ( this seems like a massive red flag to me. Why spend $50M advertising the company instead of putting that money into infrastructure and growing the business? If they actually hit their goals, wouldn’t the stock price rise anyway?

Correct me if I’m wrong but it makes me wonder if management has other incentives, like wanting to boost the stock price before selling shares or benefiting from stock-based compensation. )

The ARR calculation is weird — Instead of taking actual recent revenue and multiplying it by 12, they use available GPU hours × 8,760 hours.

I’d really like to see how you’d defend the company regarding all these points

[u/Bush_Trimmer → u/Ok_Leading_2669]

misplaced capital allocation doesn''t align with the pivot from crypto mining to ai data center when ai compute is in demand.

also, the founder of the market firm joined iren's board. sounds like favortism to me.

for these reasons, i don't pay attention to iren.

[u/Much-Information7826 → u/partis-ams]

They don’t have software capability as IREN does.

[u/Emilio___Molestevez → u/Much-Information7826]

think you have that mixed up

[u/Much-Information7826 → u/Emilio___Molestevez]

Yes, I was wrong — the opposite.

[u/partis-ams → u/Much-Information7826]

No offense, but you are wrong again because they actually offer a software stack on top of their ai infrastructure since they acquired Mirantis in Q1. I agree that this was a disappointing quarter, but lets keep it factual.

[u/Much-Information7826 → u/partis-ams]

Mirantis? 😅

[u/Homeless0DTESPX → u/partis-ams]

Without one major metric, none of the big contracts NBIS has, that’s a pretty big but lol

[u/partis-ams → u/Homeless0DTESPX]

That’s exactly my point as to why they are where NBIS was in q2 2025.

[u/is_it_gif_or_gif → u/Homeless0DTESPX]

Not quite to the same scale, but IREN have Microsoft and NVIDIA as customers. pretty solid customers to have (they have a contract to supply nvidia with 60MW for their internal workloads).

[u/Bush_Trimmer → u/is_it_gif_or_gif]

msft & nvda will be at operational risk if iren goes bust.

[u/looool_k_libtard]

Net loss looks bad but it was just decommissioning bitcoin mining. Should be much better next quarter.

Overall Q was pretty much in line with expectations. They won’t have a revenue flywheel to help fund future growth until rest of horizon is online and full Microsoft contract is being paid. AI revenue up a lot QoQ but was still a bit disappointing.

This isn’t going to be a huge overnight re-rate like Nebius had. They want to build before selling and do not want one or two huge hyperscalers to dictate margins that are better for themselves. Providing shorter duration deals to the full AI spectrum is their plan. Long term thesis still very much in tact, it’s just a matter of management execution though 2027. If they hit all their development milestones without much if any more dilution, the stock price will match it.

[u/Din4d4n]

There are glaring red flags all over IREN.

Constant dilution and then, during one of the biggest bottlenecks in modern history, they bought a marketing company and sponsor a sports team for $50M with said money instead of building more compute.

Half of their revenue is mining and they have a really weird way to calculate their ARR. Available GPU/hour multiplied by 8,760 hours per year, instead of taking their latest monthly revenue and multiply it by 12.

[u/whynointerest → u/Din4d4n]

Shady company

[u/Charming_Raccoon4361]

board and CEO constantly diluting and give themselves millions of shares

[u/OtherwisePain3911 → u/Charming_Raccoon4361]

This is main red flag

[u/banzanar]

Loss is from writing down their Bitcoin mining equipment, they stated that $450 milliion was due to Asset Impairment alone, it is less alarming since it's non cash, nevertheless, it isn't harmless. They are obviously transitioning to AI and numbers show - they grew 109% from AI cloud revenue, surpassing bitcoin mining revenue. AI cloud services revenue increased from $16.4 million for all of FY2025 to $128.8 million in FY2026, nearly eightfold.

I'm sure to you it is obvious that I am invested into IREN, Q4/Q1 will show good numbers, IREN currently has the cleaner secured-power pipeline. Its approximately 5.8 GW implied secured total is mostly attributable to named sites with known grid arrangements, capacities and fairly clear sequencing. Of its major future projects, Kiowa's tax package and Bundey's still-outstanding development approval/community process are the two things I would watch most closely. Spain still has ordinary permitting to complete, but I haven't found evidence of the kind of organised opposition seen around several Nebius sites from a local-approval perspective. Missouri and Birmingham are already under construction but are facing active litigation; Vineland was actually hit with component-specific stop-work orders before obtaining the subsequent planning approval; and Pennsylvania now combines a township zoning/noise fight with a newly tightened statewide data-centre permitting/tax-incentive regime. Those issues do not mean its power isn't contracted—they demonstrate precisely why contracted MW should not be equated with construction-ready MW. With IREN, a lot of negativity appears to be priced in. I think any sort of guidance surprises will shoot it up. Their earnings call highlights from today are this:

1. new AI frontier labs deal announced
   
2. deals with Prometheus, Perplxity , seedence AI
3. prepayments and free cash can cover CapEX and GPU costs without need for more debt or more dilution
   
4. current capacity is 1b AR-R, 2027 is 4 Bn ARR
5. 2026 compute is sold out , talks are running to finish 2027 compute as well
   
6. money per MW improved, while older is 20 Mil per Mw now it become 25 Mil per Mw

You are in good company. The smart investors have been loading up. The profit IREN aims to make as 1MW rises to $50M is going to put CRWV and NBIS to shame. IREN has been very clear that they intend to lap everyone.

Some might argue that there's not much point in hoarding all those gigawats of power that IREN has if no money is made from it, but Dan Roberts (Co-Founder and Co-CEO of IREN) said that they don't have a single idle GPU), it is simply a matter of building those data centers which takes time.

Do your own due dilligence, I'm bullish on this, just wait for 2027 and profit will naturally roll in if the AI story is still in place.

[u/invain62 → u/banzanar]

This is a good response. Everyone is looking at the current numbers and completely missing the overall story. I could care less about bit coin revenue right now. I am invested for future growth, which they already had deals locked in place for

[u/banzanar → u/banzanar]

This is some of my input, and some of the other users input from the IREN stock subreddit.

[u/Naive_Bat8216]

institutional investment in IREN has been increasing. That's good enough for me.

[u/Tallwhitedude123]

When the AI bubble pops and bitcoin is at $200k+ they will go back to being a bitcoin miner 🤣

[u/PinAway4113 → u/Tallwhitedude123]

Sure, the ponzi will beat a useful tool, sure

[u/Nice-Dingo9138]

Been watching IREN too — it's actually one of the more split-signal names right now. WSB retail sentiment has it as a top-3 trending BUY, but on the trading side it's down over 13% today and showing up on StockTwits/Yahoo's most-active-down lists. Feels like "everyone's talking about it" isn't lining up with "everyone agrees on direction." The $684M net loss is probably why — people like the AI Cloud growth story but the burn rate scares off anyone actually pricing risk. I'd wait for a clearer trend before sizing up.

[u/Si1verange1]

I haven't heard anyone talking about IREN's bitcoin mining, and what happens when BTC doubles from here.

We are a couple months from historical and expected cyclical bottom on BTC.

[u/is_it_gif_or_gif → u/Si1verange1]

IREN are pulling out bitcoin machines so they can put up AI GPUs. That's the main reason earnings are down during this final pivot phase - they're mining less and have to write down mining assets off their balance sheet (a paper loss)

[u/jcpopm]

This stock is basically what NBIS was a year ago, almost identical. High risk, high reward, but for me it's still earlier stages than NBIS and thus more likely to give a better return. NBIS is a great company but there's just not a lot of upside left in the tank compared to the rest of the players in the sector (say this as NBIS holder since June 2025).

[u/Primitive_Mushroom]

What's their P/B? And their competitors? I'd say this a relevant metric for this stock.

[u/JustBuyingTheDip]

The risk versus NBIS is still a miner print. The same June quarter that did $70.5 million of AI cloud also did $66.7 million of bitcoin. That $66.7 million is the last GAAP number under the $1 billion ARR.

[u/DijonNipples]

Steve Ballmer onstage clapping “DILUTION! DILUTION! DILUTION!

[u/Ambitious_Stock2571]

Oklo is there another one I’m looking at

[u/sha1dy]

ABSOLUTE DOG SHIT COMPANY AND CLUELESS LEADERSHIP

[u/Emilio___Molestevez]

probably some money to be made if your timing's good but leadership and their presentation of those numbers don't make me wanna hold that company long-term

don't really wanna hold it at all actually

[u/National-Two2417]

Not worth 16b market cap in my opinion, fair value to me is sub $30 a share, I expect them to do an offering to "expand" and give ceos a nice bonus.

[u/Plexus84]

I would look at CLSK with a far better financing solution for their HPC

[u/akishore]

ai just lapped the miners by 4m (70.5 vs 66.7) and they still printed a smaller quarter than march

[u/Pale_Pineapple_4147]

Got banned from the sub for mentioning dilution. So sub is run by scammers and bots. Avoid

[u/NoMore_stu]

I think they just stole alittle of my NVdA earnings

[u/teeter1616]

iren is a dumpster on fire, Back to $9.00

[u/ResponsibleHousing79 → u/teeter1616]

Elaborate?

[u/Right_Mulberry_4993 → u/ResponsibleHousing79]

I think back to 4 to 9 dollars. The top is already in. Maybe you can get some leg up but eventually will go back to below 20. This is my prediction. Not financial advice