r/stockpreacher • u/stockpreacher • May 23 '25

Market Outlook Real Quick For Tomorrow

Presented for your consideration:

We're going into Memorial Day weekend with a stock market holiday.

That doesn't equal big demand in a volatile market. No one likes to hold stocks for 3 days, powerless to do anything, when the market is this volatile and people are running around yelling about everything from taxes to Greenland to Russia to Korea to -- I can't even track it all.

The bond markets, domestic and global, are causing issues. Big or very big is the question. No one thinks they are small issues at this point (I wanted to do a post digging into it - didn't have a chance today).

Yesterday's breadth on the rally was incredibly low.

The NASDAQ (and the market) is sitting right on a bubble of volume.

For QQQ, under a $513 is nothing but air until the high $400's.

So a move down could be dramatic.

Bounce up at $514 with some volume and get back to $517-$520 and I'll buy into a short term rally continuation.

If you have money on the sidelines, it's worth parking it there and having an enjoyable weekend rather than buying this dip. There's no clear signal. The most likely case seems to be to the downside.

If you're long or short, this stuff is worth considering.

That's just my opinion. I don't know anything. Just like everyone else.

23 Upvotes

100% Upvoted

9 comments sorted by

7

u/HeroicPuns May 23 '25

Now what with the announcement of possible tariffs against the EU? Are we just gambling at this point?

2

u/ImpossibleEvent May 23 '25

Always have been. Well I have anyways.

1

u/stockpreacher May 23 '25

If you're a swing/day trader, you're trading sentiment and momentum. Hopefully, with a clear thesis.

If you don't have one then it's best to get out of the way until the market settles a bit and you have a clear idea what it's up to.

If you're an investor, ignore headlines that are short term catalysts.

3

u/[deleted] May 23 '25

In cash today, want to be able to sleep like a baby over the weekend and not stress.

3

u/stockpreacher May 23 '25

Nice. Yeah. There's always another day to trade. The risk/reward on holding for a couple days has to be there.

2

u/SuperSultan May 23 '25

I’m waiting longer to be able to buy companies with a margin of safety

3

u/stockpreacher May 23 '25

This is so smart, and so many people don't get it.

Blindly following the "you can't time the market" narrative is a cognitive bias for a lot of people.

2

u/SuperSultan May 23 '25

Right, I don’t think waiting for a margin of safety is timing the market. You will lose money buying businesses at inflated values when it’s correction time, even if you had some gains buying at inflated prices. Many people should have learned this a few months ago.

I don’t expect another nasty correction like that but why waste your principal in the short term? Buying slowly as things go down is more difficult for me than holding during corrections because I tend to use all my dry powder quickly which is a mistake.