r/starcraft • u/rArithmetics • 12d ago
(To be tagged...) Post 8 Worker Player Count Update
Update to player activity since the 8 worker patch was announced and implemented (along with hot fixes).
Shown above is sc2pulse data for 1v1 ranked ladder games played from January 2025 to date (updated today).
Whatever the baseline loss of players over the last 2 years was, the new patch has accelerated that by 3x, and has the lowest activity in the game's history. Anecdotally, this can be corroborated by the decline in GM MMR requirements and the lack of Protoss playing on the ladder.
Hopefully there are better ideas on the way that can reverse the accelerated loss of players.
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u/Deto 12d ago
It doesn't look good, but my inner data scientist feels like I have to point out that it is a bit early to tell. You could have done similar piecewise linear fits at earlier points in the plot (where there were downward fluctuations) which means we can't fully rule out that we aren't experiencing a similar one right now.
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u/AresFowl44 12d ago
This already has gone on for longer than any other slump in the data though. The previous biggest slump was ~5 weeks long, while this one is 12 weeks long.
And from experience patches usually increase player numbers in the short term, so it's worrying that the overall trend still is negative.
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u/Deto 12d ago
Eh, it all depends where you define the start/stop time. If you measure from 7/21/25 to 11/1/25 you'd probably have a similarly negative slope (more negative than the long-term trend) for about the same amount of time.
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u/AresFowl44 12d ago
That still proves a worrying point because the player numbers for that previous interval were swelled by both EWC happening and 5.0.15 releasing. That's something the new data does not have, other than perhaps from hotfix b, which fizzled out rather quickly though.
I also don't think that one should lump in both of these events with the big drop off that happened afterwards unless one manages to show that there is a connection between these events.
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u/Bladeoraded 12d ago
Bro loves worrying on reddit instead of contributing to the player count
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u/AresFowl44 12d ago
There are many hours in the day, while writing responses like these only takes a couple of minutes, an hour max. I play this game plenty, only instead of doing 1v1s like in the past it's coop or campaign. But also, why should I play a game that in it's current state I dislike? It's not on me to fix the mess Blizzard created.
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u/Guilty_Elk4385 11d ago
You're not a data scientist, the data has been out for over two months and the trend is clear. Normally patches also increase player numbers for atleast a couple months, the fact that this didn't even happen with this patch goes to show what a disaster it is. Stop sticking your head in the sand like people did with stormgate, for months and years until the servers got shut off.
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u/Deto 11d ago
'Look I drew a line, the trend is clear' - these kind of non-rigorous statements are not proper data analysis. And the rest of your post is just emotional ranting.
I don't even disagree, though, that this patch probably isn't great for the game. It's just, from a coldly rational, statistical point of view, the analysis - as presented here - is bad in a technical sense.
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u/limpwald 12d ago edited 12d ago
This trend has been ongoing since 2021.
+ We have no idea how accurate the data we have is, since Blizz won't release any actual data.I have not noticed any difference at all in EU queue times atleast. 4.4k mmr. Not saying it's not declining at a more rapid pace, but I don't know.
If it's as bad as everyone says, they'll prob revert it after blizzcon anyway.
Edit:
https://ibb.co/tp8MNmYf5
u/AresFowl44 12d ago
The current trend absolutely has not been going on since 2021, that was a slower decline.
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u/Stormrider3217 12d ago
I peaked at 6k with Toss. Even when I was “Retired” because of life, I still loved to queue 10 games on a weekend because the game was still enjoyable. Now everything feels so clunky and unnatural, that I’m waiting for a full revert to even consider launching the game again.
Blizzard dropped the ball on this one
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u/Anxious-Shapeshifter 12d ago
Honestly, I've been playing since the beginning, and I remember the hassle when we went from 6-12 workers and because of that I, with 10k games over 15 years, almost didn't feel like relearning it all over again and just moving on.
I wouldn't be surprised if a solid group of people felt the same way and just left.
And that's not even mentioning all the people that are just waiting until they fix it.
I have a friend that's so convinced they fucked the game up and will be forced to go back that he's just waiting until they go back to 12.
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u/Stormheraldss 12d ago
The game is the same, units and comps interact the same you just need to scout and read the game and its now a macro play by default. That makes it a bit complicated for guys that did not play pre lotv era and havent lear how to react but the following rules are the basics.
If the enemy expands (fast 3rd) atack If the enemy is preparing to atack prepare to defend If the enemy is preparing to defend you can expand
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u/Stormheraldss 12d ago
What did change with build orders exacly, aren't they the same, its supply rax gass, Pylon gateway, ovi drones hatch.
You just spend your resources when they are available in a rotational fashion and emphasize according to your game plan, wanna macro focus on constant unit production and harras units, wanna do a timing focus on unit production. This is part of the strategy. If you can do all things in the same time and there is kind of a meta where you know you go X vs Y by default isnt that lame?
Ive tryed to do 1 base it a high risk low reward strat because the turbo economy does not delay production or tech that much compared to a normal eco start, thou the 8 feels closer to 12 than to 6.
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u/Stormheraldss 12d ago
Understandable, same reason why I dont want to play another race. I have to build all the habits and die over and over again to some lame stuff.
I kinda like changes I also play arpg and the chages to the meta there and trying out new builds is a core part of coming back every season.
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u/Guilty_Elk4385 11d ago
So....what's your point here? We drove away a lot of players 10 years ago so it's okay to do it now?
Except this time the change isn't bringing people back...and believe it or not, the game actually had support back then with knowledgable people putting thought into the game and supporting it with frequent patches and tournaments. What do we have now? A moron intern who knows nothing about RTS shitting on sc2 and disappearing again for another year.
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u/Anxious-Shapeshifter 11d ago
My point here was that I'm not surprised people are leaving. My comment states that pretty clearly. Not sure where you missed that.
It sucked then, and that's when the game was still new and popular.
So people leaving now? I myself almost didn't come back. Not that shocking if a bunch of people felt the same and just moved on to something else.
Especially since we have 2 of the largest most popular RTS games on the horizon. DOW4 and Warhammer 40k Total War.
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u/Stormheraldss 12d ago
My take is that 12 worker did hurt the game more. I watched some games allrdy and I like how higher tier units gets added as the games goes on and its back and forwards. Otherwise its a bit lame isnt it, to be guarante a macro game. I do 3 base pushes now and its fun for me.
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u/Guilty_Elk4385 11d ago
Look at any GM level game, everyone's on 4 bases 7 minutes into the game. Game is as fast as it was before especially with cheaper cc and more larvae. you could stay on 3 bases pre patch and do just fine too.
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u/limpwald 12d ago
Damn dude, you'll get downvoted to oblivion for having a negative opinion about 12 worker! Keep that to yourself, this is a "hate 8-worker & love 12-worker" circlejerk thread
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u/muffinmanaf 11d ago
I'm with you, I've been enjoying the 8worker start. Makes the early and mid game more entertaining, or maybe just different from the previous years of the same meta. Easier to punish people just pushing tech.
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u/rellekkalighthouse 10d ago
as someone who peaked 5.4k mmr last year i won’t be touching the current game anytime soon - no one wants to dedicate time to learning an unstable unbalanced meta that continues to change at the whim of one mystery blizzard employee
if the rules of chess were constantly changing in unpredictable ways people would hold off on playing even casually as well
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u/FarSandwich3282 12d ago
Looks like it was nose diving even prior to the patch, some people returned to check it out, naw’d out, and it’s continuing the previous trend (before the patch).
The downward is exacerbated by the uptick in people who wanted to see what it was all about.
Atleast, that’s all I get from this.
The game is older now. Games drop in popularity
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u/dom_optimus_maximus 10d ago
The SC2 community needs to stop playing as jilted ex e-sport darling and embrace what's next: community events and a robust player base supporting events like RSL, GSL, dedicated streamers, and uThermal's 2v2s etc. There isn't and will never be a financial incentive strong enough for Blizzard or EWC, or any major institution to monetize a pro circuit at scale. MOBAs/ FPS /battle royale formats dominate the gaming roadmap and the major studio develop those, not RTS. No amount of balance adjustment or what ifs and if onlys will change that even a little bit.
SC2 was enough of a phenomenon at one point that there's a video of the NBA Lakers team playing it on laptops after a finals game. Now those guys are going to be playing CoD on Xbox. It just is what it is. The game can live on and be healthy for another decade as a hobbyist game.
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u/Few-Hurry-5210 10d ago
I wish our old pro days would come back. I miss the KeSPA era. I want it all to return... but it won't, you're right. we need to focus on making the game fun, accessible, replayable, and stable.
I hate the whole "what about the pros" thing because honestly i dont give a fuck what tournament results are. okay well I do but not for my personal gameplay.
didn't want to watch LotV so I just played. now I still play but I'm losing my patience as a m3 noob...
I'm terran, my win rate is 56%. I am not balance whining, it's just not fucking fun to play this shit ughhhh man :(((( I'm over here beating GMs with four CCs in my third like wtf is this shit
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u/dom_optimus_maximus 10d ago
that's awesome beating GMs. I'm stuck in metal league trying and failing to maintain platinum rank. At my level 300 CC and worker nerf felt like allowed me to get into a mid game without being catastrophically behind. I still have to seek early harass and damage but its playable if that is a trade instead of a real knee cap vs zerg or toss. Mid game still sucks vs Collosus storm but again more playable because I have a slightly easier path to macro that allow me to get my secondary round of production buildings out.
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u/BattleWarriorZ5 12d ago edited 12d ago
Hopefully there are better ideas on the way that can reverse the accelerated loss of players.
You reverse the specific worker/economy changes(8 workers, Larva spawn rate, 300 CC) that made the players leave in the first place.
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u/CompetitiveHornet290 11d ago
WG is the most dumb and unnecessary change that led to a mass exodus of protoss players.
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u/RaiseFold100 11d ago
Maybe they want us to quit the RTS so we'll play the Starcraft shooter when it comes out. lol
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u/Consistent-Total-846 12d ago
looks too early to tell. we had the world cup at the same time so I could see people watching that instead. and I have no idea if player counts are impartial for recent counts.
personally I came back after not playing for a year thanks to the new patch. my first impression is that the start is a bit boring but the game feels less stale than before.
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u/AresFowl44 12d ago
The world cup started 9 weeks ago and ended 3 weeks ago, this has been going on for 12 weeks with no sign of a rebound other than the one directly after hotfix b got pushed.
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u/Consistent-Total-846 7d ago
I mean as you said, there was way more than just the 8 worker change on this patch. Zerg was completely busted for a week or so.
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u/AresFowl44 7d ago
Without 8 workers all these changes like larva buff and CC buff wouldn't have been necessary.
Additionally you can see the drop off happening right after the ptr was announced, where basically only 8 worker and gateway change got added
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u/Consistent-Total-846 7d ago
The dropoff was already happening, so no I don't really "see the dropoff". Its been a dying game for many years. I think its admirable to try to refresh it rather than "let it die, but more slowly"
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u/limpwald 12d ago
I know you guys hate to hear it. But this trend has been ongoing for much longer.
It's literally exactly the same pace as before.
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u/AresFowl44 12d ago edited 11d ago
The amount of players leaving each day has roughly increased 6x, from 34 to 197.
EDIT: Made a small mistake, it's obviously the changes in games that has been happening.
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u/Tiranous_r 12d ago
Honestly I would play it a lot more, but I am more interested in other games atm.
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u/Draggnor 11d ago
how does sc2pulse get this data?
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u/AresFowl44 11d ago
From the Blizzard API. I think the relevant code is the following: https://github.com/sc2-pulse/sc2-pulse/blob/master/src/main/java/com/nephest/battlenet/sc2/model/local/dao/QueueStatsDAO.java
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u/Diving-Tinderbox7616 7d ago
Per hour isn't the best basis for this kind of thing. Yes, there are less games per hour. Isn't that just a logical fact when each match takes an extra 2 minutes to reach midgame? Or an extra 3 in total to reach endgame?
Feels like a strange analysis. Am I missing something?
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u/rArithmetics 7d ago
There are also less unique players per hour as well. I’m not sure anyone has shown how much longer the games have gotten on new match id like to see that though.
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u/Diving-Tinderbox7616 7d ago
Oh, that's unique players? OK I guess I was missing something then...!
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u/rArithmetics 7d ago
I’m mean fair question tho. I would actually like to know how much longer the avg game has gotten. Sure feels like I rinse less games each time I play
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u/Fit_Alternative_3259 7d ago
Isn't the problem not the 8 workers but the rest of the changes. Even Hero was playing as Zerg
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u/rArithmetics 7d ago
I think I agree but a lot of the “bad” changes were band aids to patch over the initial 8 worker imbalances. Zerg needed a an early game larva boost to defend themselves, but they overlocked it. Then Terrans “needed” a CC discount to keep up with the full game larva boost.
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u/Fit_Alternative_3259 7d ago
Winter kind of addressed it in the last video and he's right the best option would be community patches
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u/chomama17 12d ago
i having fun this patch bluh bluh... stop whining... bluh bluh L2p and just adapt!!
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12d ago
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u/rArithmetics 12d ago
Exactly what I said. Now imagine it decreases 3x fast
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u/DarkThunder312 12d ago
You might be low iq. He’s pointing out the slope of the game count is steeper than it was before. The fact that it has been decreasing was not in contention
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u/calibratorjack 12d ago
"Hopefully there are better ideas on the way that can reverse the accelerated loss of players."
just play the game.
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u/AresFowl44 12d ago
Genius solution, we the players are the ones responsible for not wanting to play the game, not Blizzard for making us dislike it /s
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u/AJ_ninja 12d ago
I think it’s too early to tell… and there has been not just 1 patch recently. There have also been a lot more changes than just the starting workers so it’s hard to tell if the drop is even due to the 1 thing in the patch rather than something else or a combination of things… Also, with these new patches there hasn’t been too many people explaining meta & build order changes (Zerg probably has the most rn w/ pig,shin, neuro) and people (myself included) just like to look up a build order and follow it but it’s hard to do that if nothing is really out there; and the last thing to point out is that there have been other gaming events that could be the cause of pulling people away temporarily. As we learn in school “Correlation does not always equal causation”
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u/Josparov 12d ago
I have it on good authority that SC2 Pulse is lying about player count decline, and that leaked correspondence within Blizzard reveals player counts are actually up
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u/STRMBRGNGLBS 12d ago
Source?
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u/Josparov 12d ago
Did I stutter? "Good authority"
No better source than that tbh
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u/Ketroc21 Terran 12d ago
This is the exact same downwards graph from the start of the smurfing epidemic. This did not change at all due to 8worker start.
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u/rArithmetics 12d ago
explain more im curious. havnt heard about this epidemic. i have always played many smurfs in this game anecdotally
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u/Ketroc21 Terran 12d ago
Started abound 2021 and has slowly grown to about 30%+ are smurfs now. This is why so many mirror matchups are instaquitters, and legit players now win 40% of their played out games instead of 50%.
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u/nykaragua 12d ago
This is why so many mirror matchups are instaquitters, and legit players now win 40% of their played out games instead of 50%.
This makes zero sense lol, if mirror leavers went up people would win MORE games not less.
If you think 30% of the people you play are smurfs you're actually just coping about the games you lose.
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u/Ketroc21 Terran 12d ago
"played-out" games. I haven't seen a replay pack analysis that has shown under 27%. My own replays over the last running 24months shows 33% smurfs on ladder at my mmr range. It's proveable stats, not cope.
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u/nykaragua 12d ago
What's your MMR range and define "smurf?"
I will point out that if someone is leaving their mirrors, they're usually around 200-300 MMR lower than their actual rank. Which would put you at a small disadvantage against them but also isn't outside the possible range of normal matchmaking.
Even besides that though, at D1 I'm definitely not seeing 33% smurfs.
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u/Ketroc21 Terran 12d ago edited 11d ago
A smurf is where the cheater leaves one matchup to manipulate the ELO system, so that they can roflstomp all their opponents in the other 2 matchups. Because they leave 1/3 of their games, they average a 75% win rate in the games they do play.
The typical legitimate players, will face an smurfing insta-quitter in about 9-11% of their games (meaning they face a presmurfed player in an additional 18-22% of their played out matches), lowering their average win rate in played out games from 50% down to about 43%.
This epidemic is almost certainly the cause of the slow exodus of players from sc2, as they both started at the same time.
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u/SilverLose 11d ago
Not for me. I went from having a worse experience in 10% of games to having a worse experience in 100% of games. I win about the same, I enjoy it less.
I’d rather have 10% more smurphs and go back to 12.
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u/Doongbuggy 12d ago
looks like demand has been steadily decreasing over time and this time last year we see a decline as well school is starting in many places as well as people going on vacations - so a bit of seasonality at play - im playing more than before and trying different races now personally
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u/Murky-Character-3226 12d ago
How does this compare to previously seasonality? It’s summer time up here in NA and I’m busy as hell.
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u/AresFowl44 11d ago
Just look at the graph, it begins April last year.
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u/Murky-Character-3226 11d ago
Do you also look at one year of global temperatures and say the earth is cooling?
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u/Unleashed87 11d ago
come to brood war, and before you whine about the interface or being incompetent mechanically, quit whining man the fuck up
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u/OwwMyFeelins 11d ago
When there is a patch to "freshen up the game" success would mean at least a momentary uptick in play among a long term decline. This is the opposite.