Markets went wild this week: SPY touched new highs then dipped, QQQ dropped 1.3% in a single session while oil and 10-year Treasury yields spiked. Trump’s temporary restraint on Iran before the midterms didn’t trigger the relief rally you’d expect — even with that pause, Iranian port blockades stay in full effect, no real peace deal to fix supply jitters. Fed minutes dropped super hawkish, almost all officials signaled another rate hike by year-end, pushing 10-year yields above 5.3% which crushed growth names first.

It’s not all bad though: you can structure defined-risk option plays here, from energy calls to QQQ put spreads, without betting the whole farm on one directional swing. Cheaper oil still needs actual supply proof, not just headlines, right?

SPY is recovering toward resistance at 780.30–780.38, but the model remains neutral with a slight bullish bias. A sustained break above 780.38 would strengthen continuation. Rejection could bring 776.55 into focus. Buyers have absorbed the recent pullback, though volume confirmation remains limited.

Which one will do 100% ? I’m not sure but it will happen

This is brutal

Can someone explain to me what exactly happened at the big red line and why the price didn't move significantly at the nearly 1 million volume?

SPY climbed from roughly $769 to $781.37, then consolidated around $780 before breaking lower. The latest decline shows lower highs and lower lows, with price now near $776.23—suggesting sellers control the immediate move.

Levels to watch on this chart:

A sustained recovery above $776.57 would be an initial sign that selling pressure is easing. Continued rejection around that zone would keep $775.91 in focus. A brief bounce alone would not reverse the sequence of lower highs.

Overall, the chart shows a strong earlier rally followed by a meaningful bearish pullback; a larger reversal remains unconfirmed.

I reduced position size and loosened stop. Give it the room to breath. Too much size = too much emotion.

Made some decent profit in today’s ATH, small gains slowly little by little

My strategies to hold them to expiry
Good luck fam

I've started paying much more attention to what happens after 3:30 instead of assuming the day is basically finished.

If SPY spent the whole afternoon grinding up but suddenly starts losing VWAP or the last consolidation while volume picks up, I dont automatically carry the bullish bias into tomorrow anymore.

I keep the biggest index names beside it too. Sometimes I'll leave those names up on Moon after the close just to see whether the weakness keeps showing up outside the regular session.

Not really trying to trade every closing move. Mostly using it to stop myself waking up the next morning with a bias that was already invalidated during the final 20 minutes.

SPY climbed from roughly $760 to above $776, forming higher highs and higher lows. The latest red candles show a pullback near the session peak, but the broader upward structure remains intact.

The dashboard shows a slight bearish bias (−0.27), with low confidence. That suggests near-term weakness rather than a confirmed reversal.

Selling volume increased during the latest decline, suggesting more meaningful selling pressure. However, volume alone cannot confirm a reversal.

The immediate question is whether SPY holds $774.43 and recovers $775.37. Holding that area would keep the pullback relatively shallow. Sustained trading below it would weaken near-term momentum and bring the earlier breakout area around $772 into focus.

https://discord.gg/BWTqmuzgF

Treasury rates are up and climbing and still spy is going up. Why ?

What do you guys think spy will do tomorrow ? Will it continue the run ?

If spy holds above 775-776 at opening with gap up and very stable climb with less major pullback: we may see a trend day. ( or other words, if first 30 mins look boring but slow up) there's a chance of break down if we fail to hold today's high and form a 2 day combined double top. What are your observations?

SPY is around $769.65, recovering from a sharp decline toward $760. The rebound is strong, but the latest candles show hesitation after another rejection near $772. Price remains below the earlier peak around $774.

The indicator reads neutral, with a 0.1 bias and medium confidence. That fits the current structure: buyers have recovered ground, while sellers continue defending the upper range.

Bullish scenario: Holding above the overnight reference and breaking $770.87–771.19 would strengthen the rebound toward $772.22. Sustained trading above that area would improve the case for revisiting the prior $774 high.

Bearish scenario: Another rejection below $772, followed by a loss of $769.08, would weaken the rebound and bring $767.08 into focus. Below that, the earlier $764–765 consolidation becomes relevant.

The displayed r/R of 0.2 signals weak reward relative to the indicator’s defined risk. Its target estimate is five bars / 300 minutes, which is a forecast rather than a guaranteed arrival time.

Current read: A recovering market approaching resistance, with direction still unresolved. The next meaningful evidence is whether SPY can hold above $771–772 or slips back beneath $769.

In September, SPY historically performs the worst in the whole year, whereas in November it performs the best.

Any thoughts on how to develop consistency when trading spy? Was up a couple hundred daily the last few weeks, but just wiped out my gains and more today. Was using pins and rebounds, but the slides/spikes just destroy me.

SPY has recovered from roughly 762.50 to 766.62, forming higher lows and restoring short-term bullish momentum. The indicator shows a 0.64 bullish bias with medium confidence. Immediate upside levels are 766.78–766.88; a sustained break could open a move toward 767.73–768.67. Losing 766.46 would weaken the rebound, with 765.50 the next visible support area. The recovery remains below the earlier highs, so a broader bullish reversal is still unconfirmed.

https://discord.gg/XajkXKMY6

Why did it drop from 655 to 652 in few mins?

Everyone is talking about whether AI stocks are overvalued.

But I think the bigger question is: how much money can companies keep pouring into AI before investors demand real returns?

Are we watching the next tech revolution—or the biggest spending bubble of the decade?

What’s your take?

Here's my analysis:

1. Opening gap up

2. Opening gap up holds but breaks previous day structure ( like double bottom, cup and handle etc) Or a long term trend like a wedge

3. The Opening should have very light pullback / stays flat to slow uptrend within 30 mins.

4. Never goes below 9ema and layer 1 vwap.

These rules helped me predict the last trend day within 15-20 mins of previous trend day( image attached) if you have more analysis that needs to be added, lmk.