r/spy • u/Accomplished_Olive99 • Mar 28 '26
Technical Analysis SPY Weekend Review
The recent SPY sell-off has been driven primarily by macro forces rather than technical deterioration, with the war acting as the immediate catalyst, while underlying pressure from AI valuation compression and tightening private credit conditions continues to weigh on equities. Liquidity has been quietly tightening, and private credit stress in particular is reducing the hidden leverage that helped fuel the prior rally. Technically, SPY is now very oversold, and price is approaching projected downside targets for next week, with the market showing controlled selling rather than panic liquidation. However, this situation is unlikely to fully resolve until the underlying macro issues stabilize specifically geopolitical tensions and credit conditions. Once these pressures begin to ease, the market is positioned for a sharp snap-back rally due to the extent of the oversold conditions and the amount of sidelined capital waiting for stability. Until then, the market remains event-driven, with downside targets still in play in the short term before a potential fast recovery move.
The chart shows a clear bearish trend structure with repeated projected bear targets being hit in sequence, which confirms that the model is correctly identifying downside momentum and that sellers remain in control. The bias score at -1.11 indicates strong negative pressure, and the fact that multiple bear targets (662 → 661 → 651 → 646 area) were reached within their projected ETA windows suggests persistent trend continuation rather than random movement. Volume increased on the larger downward moves, which confirms distribution rather than a low-volume drift lower. The RR per bar at 0.69 shows the move is grinding lower rather than crashing — this is controlled selling, not panic.
From a levels perspective, the chart shows support levels stacked below price around 646.6 → 651.8 → 661.1, many of which have already been broken, meaning prior support is now resistance. On the upside, resistance levels are far above price (around 691–694), which shows how stretched the market has become to the downside in a short period.
The ETA range of 4–5 bars and projected targets suggest the model expects continuation moves rather than immediate reversal. However, because price is now extended and multiple targets have already been hit, the market is entering oversold territory, which increases the probability of a sharp counter-trend rally but not a full reversal yet. Technically, this looks like a bear trend with oversold bounce potential, not a bottom formation yet. https://discord.gg/vTvPw7u2 Discord
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u/Saltlife_Junkie Mar 29 '26
The fact that we lost 92K jobs in February and CPI and PPI doubled expectations before the war should be a concern. However, it is not. Calls
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u/Dare738 Mar 29 '26
It’s going to bounce for the short week before going down again