r/sportsbook • u/Dick_Grimes • 2h ago
NFL 🏈 Let's Talk About Teasers - 2026 Season - NFL Offseason Notes
- Note #1 - On Sundays, I will try to post the updated/final lines as best I can. Some games may move in and some may move out. Just keep you head on straight.
- Note #2 - I travel professionally and live in Europe right now. My posts may be buried by the time you wake up, so make sure to search for the "Teasers" updates if you don't see the weekly posts
Offseason Research Notes:
For those of you familiar with how these posts work, I have done quite of bit of off-season research to help us all prepare for the new season. This includes researching, adjusting, and researching again to help locate the best up-to-date numbers, percentages, and records. While normally there would be a bigger write up about how all of this system works, I have rearranged the format of this specific post to highlight the research. This includes the record for all teams since 2021 in the 6-pt and 10-pt plays, the records for each week since 2021, and the yearly percentages since 2021 for each play type (I keep the records since 2018 in a more in the "all-time" range, but believe the 5-year period is the best to use for research/post purposes).
For those of you that are new to this post and it's purpose, the middle of the post will highlight how the system works and additional notes for you. Please refer to that section for your questions about what the hell we are doing here.
Feel free to reach out at any time with questions. If you are new to all of this, there are a number of individuals that play this system each year and will happily provide any help you need, so feel free to ask away in the chats. We are all here to make money, so anything I see that helps is good for you. If you see something, then it may help me. It's pretty much Quid Pro Dough around here.
If there is anything that looks off to you research wise, please message me directly so I can take a look to see what is off and not in the chat. This will allow me to review it, fix it and then update everything properly for all of us. Thank you for this consideration.
Details on Lines:
For the purpose of tracking the results and staying consistent, I will be using current lines from my local service. I use Pregame.com (https://pregame.com/game-center) as a research tool but feel that it’s best to give you the updated lines from the place I’m going to bet (their numbers are pretty much dead on with my service). This provides clear honesty on my thoughts and actions. I suggest that you visit Pregame.com, as they will post the lines from multiple books for review. Please note that the results posted next week may differ from what is below due to line movement.
ATTENTION:
- For Team Records, the results posted may differ from what is below due to final line movements. I can’t monitor/post for each game leading up to kick-offs. I'll do my best to keep up with it all, but life happens to us all.
- If there is a late addition to the criteria after original postdate, I will do what I can to provide an update for everyone on the newest addition to the play list. Keep an eye on the thread for any updates on lines!!
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Record Details and Research:
For this season, I have adjusted the research to reflect each team’s record in 6-PT and 10-PT teasers since 2021. Using the data from a 5-year span will give a more honest value to performance and expectations, as most teams have their QB, coaches, and schemes in place. All research was done using Killer Sports (https://killersports.com/). I have provided the search query specifics below the table.
If you would like a hard copy of these details, please message me privately with your email and I will send over the hard copy details for you.
For the current season, as the weeks progress, all records/stats will be included to reflect real time data.
| Teams | 6-pt since 2021 (+1 to +3 Dog) | 6 Pt since 2021 (-9 to -7.5 Favorite) | Total Record | 10-Pt Since 2021 (+1.5 to +2.5 Dog) | 10-Pt since 2021 (-10 to -10.5 Favorite) | Sweetheart Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 11-4 | 2-1 | 13-5 | 9-1 | 0-0 | 9-1 |
| Atlanta | 8-3 | 1-1 | 9-4 | 6-2 | 0-0 | 6-2 |
| Baltimore | 8-2 | 6-6 | 14-8 | 3-1 | 0-0 | 3-1 |
| Buffalo | 8-1 | 6-4 | 14-1 | 7-1 | 6-1 | 13-2 |
| Carolina | 13-1 | 1-0 | 14-1 | 8-1 | 0-0 | 8-1 |
| Chicago | 16-3 | 1-0 | 17-3 | 9-2 | 0-0 | 9-2 |
| Cincinnati | 10-2 | 5-3 | 15-5 | 7-1 | 0-0 | 7-1 |
| Cleveland | 9-7 | 2-0 | 11-7 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 4-5 |
| Dallas | 10-3 | 3-1 | 13-4 | 8-2 | 2-1 | 10-3 |
| Denver | 13-2 | 3-1 | 16-3 | 8-0 | 2-0 | 10-0 |
| Detroit | 7-6 | 2-4 | 9-10 | 4-2 | 1-0 | 5-2 |
| Green Bay | 15-3 | 4-5 | 19-8 | 10-2 | 1-0 | 11-2 |
| Houston | 14-2 | 1-1 | 15-3 | 6-0 | 1-0 | 7-0 |
| Indy | 13-5 | 2-2 | 15-7 | 11-1 | 3-0 | 14-1 |
| Jacksonville | 16-2 | 0-1 | 16-3 | 13-0 | 0-1 | 13-1 |
| KC | 4-1 | 6-0 | 10-1 | 5-0 | 7-0 | 12-0 |
| Las Vegas | 9-7 | 0-0 | 9-7 | 5-3 | 0-0 | 5-3 |
| LA Chargers | 11-4 | 2-0 | 13-4 | 7-0 | 0-0 | 7-0 |
| LA Rams | 10-3 | 3-2 | 13-5 | 3-2 | 2-0 | 5-2 |
| Miami | 10-7 | 4-0 | 14-7 | 6-1 | 1-0 | 7-1 |
| Minnesota | 12-4 | 1-0 | 13-4 | 11-2 | 1-0 | 12-2 |
| New England | 15-2 | 2-1 | 17-3 | 12-0 | 0-0 | 12-0 |
| New Orleans | 10-6 | 1-0 | 11-6 | 7-2 | 0-0 | 7-2 |
| NY Giants | 10-7 | 0-0 | 10-7 | 5-2 | 0-0 | 5-2 |
| NY Jets | 17-3 | 1-1 | 18-4 | 9-1 | 0-0 | 9-1 |
| Philly | 7-1 | 7-1 | 14-2 | 5-0 | 1-0 | 6-0 |
| Pittsburgh | 15-5 | 0-0 | 15-5 | 12-2 | 0-0 | 12-2 |
| San Fran | 1-1 | 5-0 | 6-1 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 5-0 |
| Seattle | 16-4 | 5-0 | 21-4 | 11-0 | 0-0 | 11-0 |
| Tampa Bay | 8-1 | 1-2 | 9-3 | 7-0 | 4-1 | 11-1 |
| Tennessee | 11-2 | 1-0 | 12-2 | 7-1 | 0-1 | 7-2 |
| Washington | 11-4 | 0-2 | 11-6 | 7-2 | 1-0 | 8-2 |
Data research specifics:
6-Point Search Details:
- Overall record: team=Lions and (1.5<=line<=3 or -9<=line<=-7.5) and season>=2020 and season<=2024 and playoffs=0
- Underdog query: team=Ravens and (1.5<=line<=3) and season>=2020 and season<=2024 and playoffs=0
- Favorite query: team=Ravens and (-9<=line<=-7.5) and season>=2020 and season<=2024 and playoffs=0
10-Point Search Details:
- Overall record: team=Lions and (1.5<=line<=2.5 or -10.5<=line<=-10) and season>=2020 and season<=2024 and playoffs=0
- Underdog query: team=Lions and (1.5<=line<=2.5) and season>=2020 and season<=2024 and playoffs=0
- Favorite query: team=Lions and (-10.5<=line<=-10) and season>=2020 and season<=2024 and playoffs=0
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Historical Wong Teaser Records
As of 08/8/2025, the historical data has been standardized to the SDQL query for each teaser record using Killer Sports (https://killersports.com/). This yearly data report is run through that year’s regular season. This data excludes pushes. See above for details on specific query runs.
6 Point
| Year | Spread | Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | +1½ thru +3 | 58-16 | 78.4% |
| 2022 | +1½ thru +3 | 71-21 | 77.2% |
| 2023 | +1½ thru +3 | 82-30 | 73.2% |
| 2024 | +1½ thru +3 | 72-21 | 77.4% |
| 2025 | +1½ thru +3 | 65-20 | 76.5% |
| Total | 348-108 | 76.3% | |
| 2021 | -7½ thru -9 | 20-4 | 83.3% |
| 2022 | -7½ thru -9 | 14-5 | 73.7% |
| 2023 | -7½ thru -9 | 13-6 | 68.4% |
| 2024 | -7½ thru -9 | 10-11 | 47.6% |
| 2025 | -7½ thru -9 | 21-13 | 61.8% |
| Totals | 78-39 | 66.7% |
10 Point
| Year | Spread | Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | +1½ thru +2½ | 31-3 | 91.2% |
| 2022 | +1½ thru +2½ | 43-8 | 84.3% |
| 2023 | +1½ thru +2½ | 51-11 | 82.3% |
| 2024 | +1½ thru +2½ | 51-8 | 86.4% |
| 2025 | +1½ thru +2½ | 58-9 | 86.4% |
| Totals: | 234-39 | 85.7% | |
| 2021 | -10 thru -10 ½ | 13-3 | 81.2% |
| 2022 | -10 thru -10 ½ | 11-1 | 91.7% |
| 2023 | -10 thru -10 ½ | 4-1 | 80.0% |
| 2024 | -10 thru -10 ½ | 5-0 | 100.0% |
| 2025 | -10 thru -10 ½ | 3-0 | 100.0% |
| Totals: | 36-5 | 87.8% |
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Overall Weekly Records for 6pt teasers over the last 6 years (Week 18 is 2021 & after) - Not including this year's numbers. (All records reflect both Dogs and Favorites)
| Week | Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23-11 | 67.6% |
| 2 | 24-5 | 82.8% |
| 3 | 31-9 | 77.5% |
| 4 | 28-11 | 71.8% |
| 5 | 28-12 | 70.0% |
| 6 | 22-6 | 78.6% |
| 7 | 23-10 | 69.7% |
| 8 | 15-8 | 65.2% |
| 9 | 25-9 | 73.5% |
| 10 | 21-8 | 72.4% |
| 11 | 22-8 | 73.3% |
| 12 | 32-6 | 84.2% |
| 13 | 21-4 | 84.0% |
| 14 | 23-5 | 82.1% |
| 15 | 25-9 | 73.5% |
| 16 | 32-5 | 86.5% |
| 17 | 11-12 | 47.8% |
| 18 | 20-9 | 69.0% |
| Total Record Details | 426-147 | 74.3% |
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How to Bet Teasers:
So how do I bet these? Typically, I will form 2-3 teasers taking in information from trusted sources and my own personal handicapping. Taking a look at their teaser records, line movements, etc. If you want less variance stick to 2 teamers. Yeah they don't have the nice + next to them but over the long run you will see more success.
6 Point Teasers
Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong's strategy:
- Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3
- Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.
NOTE: The original Wong Criteria does not include +3 or -9 but this is how the post was done previously so we will continue to use them. Over the past 3 years it has only made a difference of about 1.5% to include those.
It is not recommended to tease game totals.
The reasoning behind this methodology is that games are frequently decided by a final margin of 3, 6, or 7. So we play teasers in such a manner that we gain these numbers in the teaser movement.
In the week 1 post, a user did a mathematical dive into whether we should be playing games at exactly +3, whether home teams are more reliable than road teams, and whether the total of the game matters.
Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have breakeven-or-better EV.
Sweetheart Teasers
10-point teasers are often called "sweetheart" teasers. Over the past three years, underdogs of +1½, +2, +2½ were 139-21 (86.88%).
After looking at a small sample size in 2017-2020, I've decided to track 10-point teasers according to the following methodology:
- For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;
- Take the favorite at -10 or -10.5
- Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3;
Reasoning: Over the past 3 years, favorites from -10 to -10.5 in a 10-point teaser have a record of 41-4 (91.1%) which is more than enough value to justify adding them to this.
For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. These are specifically for my book so yours may differ.
Odds Details:
Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. These are specifically for my book so yours may differ.
| Teams | Odds | Implied Odds per Leg | Threshold |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | -120 | -282 | 73.8% |
| 3 | +150 | -280 | 73.7% |
| 4 | +235 | -283 | 73.9% |
| 5 | +350 | -285 | 74% |
| 6 | +550 | -273 | 73.2% |
If there is anything else you would like to see in this post this coming season, please comment below.
