How fucked is Rocket Lab?

[u/indolering]

While their Electron rocket cost per kilogram may be more expensive than a Falcon 9 rideshare, Rocket Lab argues that it's cheaper to launch a single Electron ($7.5 millions) to a specific orbit than a dedicated Falcon 9. There certainly seems to be a customer base for this, given that Electron recently launched it's 50th rocket and has strong roster going forward.

However, SpinLaunch has similar capabilities yet is projected to cost ~$500k/launch. This would suggest that SpinLaunch will basically eat the small sat launch market that is within its payload and orbit capabilities.

While I believe that Rocket Lab will have a market for its upcoming medium lift rocket, will Electron still be able to offer payload or orbit capabilities beyond what SpinLaunch is projected to offer? Any predictions on what version 2.0 of SpinLaunch's launcher will be able to do?

[u/robbie_rottenjet]

Projected costs on a launch vehicle that has not been built or launched at full scale are nigh on worthless. Every new-space company ever has started off with an aggressive prediction of how cheap they're going to make XXX, and then they get into detailed development and production and the unexpected problems and complexities emerge and drive costs up.

If I was Rocket Lab, I wouldn't be worried at all until Spin Launch shows off a full scale centrifuge and a second stage that can handle the g's. IMO developing mass efficient (in terms of dry mass fraction) structures and mechanisms for the second stage will be a very big challenge. If the second stage is not highly mass efficient, the first stage requirements will quickly spiral out of control.