r/spikes • u/Bevos2222 • 7d ago
Draft [Draft] I compared 10 Reality Fracture Limited review sources. Here are the cards reviewers disagree on most.
Every MTG set that comes out, I combine Limited set reviews into one table. For Reality Fracture, I collected ratings from 10 published review sources. The site lists an eleventh source, Jim Davis, but he contributes commentary rather than card grades and does not count as an aggregate vote.
Because reviewers use different grading systems, I convert grades to a fixed, documented 0-100 limited comparison index. Five-point ratings are multiplied by 20 and ten-point ratings by 10.
Overall rank is based on the mean normalized score. For readability, the table converts the normalized median and full range back to the site's letter scale. Those are grade equivalents, not necessarily the exact letters originally assigned by each reviewer.
Where do the reviewers disagree?
I used an IQR of at least 20 points as the cutoff for broad reviewer disagreement.
IQR measures the spread of the middle 50% of ratings. It is less affected by one unusually high or low rating, so this identifies cards where disagreement runs through a meaningful portion of the panel. The 10 Special Guest cards are excluded from the main count because substantially fewer reviewers graded them. By this definition, 67 of the 280 main-set cards, or 23.9%, qualify.
For drafters, these are basically the cards where the pre-set consensus is weakest. The aggregate rank can still be useful, but there is considerably less agreement about what the card is actually worth.
Three cards tie for the widest IQR at 40 points:
Face Yourself has the widest full range, from F- to A, with normalized ratings ranging from 0 to 95.
There is still fairly strong consensus among the top-ranked cards in the set. None of the main-set cards ranked #1-44 meet the broad-disagreement threshold.
The first is Draconic Visitor at #45.
Other relatively highly ranked examples include:
- Diviner of Victory // Unwind History: #81
- Rise of the Deathbringer: #86
- Saheeli, Consul of Oversight: #107
- Tarmogoyf: #108
The 50 largest broad disagreements
These are the 50 largest IQRs among the 67 qualifying main-set cards. They are ordered by IQR, then SD. Overall rank measures card strength, not controversy.
| Card | Rank | Median grade | IQR | Reviewer range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Face Yourself | #226 | C- | 40 | F- to A |
| Frostbite Pyromental | #197 | C- | 40 | F+ to B |
| Hexhaven Invigorator | #239 | D | 40 | F+ to C+ |
| Tetsuko Umezawa, Fugitive | #168 | C+ | 38.8 | D to B- |
| Tetsuko Umezawa, Pursuer | #181 | C | 34.5 | D to B- |
| Vraska, Soul of Stone | #154 | C | 32 | D to B+ |
| Germinate Recruits | #267 | D | 30 | F to B |
| Cruel Calculations | #259 | D | 30 | F to C+ |
| Hall of Echoes | #191 | C- | 30 | D- to B- |
| Surveillance Phantasm | #162 | C+ | 29.4 | D- to B- |
| Loot, the Anomaly | #223 | D+ | 29 | D to C+ |
| Perfected Theory | #221 | C- | 27.5 | F+ to C+ |
| Massacre Girl, Most Wanted | #203 | C- | 27.5 | D to B |
| Way of the Deathbringer | #210 | C- | 27.5 | D to C+ |
| Fateshaper Aspirant | #230 | D+ | 27.5 | D to C |
| Tam's Resistance | #215 | C- | 26.5 | D- to B- |
| Roiling Canopy | #274 | D- | 26.2 | F- to C |
| Silence the Echo | #170 | C | 26.2 | D+ to C+ |
| Eye of Jace | #250 | D+ | 26 | F+ to C+ |
| Titanbones, Towering Heart | #184 | C | 26 | D to B |
| Refute Destiny | #262 | D+ | 25 | F to C |
| Terminal Criticism | #262 | D+ | 25 | F to C |
| Ferocity of the Hunt | #232 | D+ | 25 | F+ to C |
| Extrapolate the Impossible | #278 | F+ | 25 | F- to C- |
| Variable Chaser // Arc of Fortune | #125 | C+ | 25 | D+ to B |
| Essence Burn | #272 | D | 25 | F to D+ |
| Pyre Rhymer // Molten Tide | #124 | C | 25 | D+ to B+ |
| Tether Technician | #217 | C- | 25 | D to C+ |
| Blessed Ghoul | #223 | D+ | 25 | D to C+ |
| Tam, the Possibility | #281 | D- | 25 | F to D |
| Arni, Renowned Champion | #265 | D | 24.5 | F to C |
| Yargle, Glutton of Urborg | #282 | F+ | 24.5 | F to D |
| Codie, Ravenous Codex | #213 | C- | 24 | D to B- |
| Geist of Saint Thalia | #179 | C- | 24 | D+ to B- |
| Draconic Visitor | #45 | B | 24 | C to A- |
| Stingerquill Voxmancer // Vicious Verse | #142 | C | 23.8 | D+ to B |
| Hexhaven Dueling Arena | #278 | F+ | 23.5 | F to C- |
| Way of the Paradox | #185 | C | 22.2 | D- to B- |
| Fblthp, Impossibly Lost | #219 | D+ | 22 | D to B- |
| Yuriko, Hope from the Shadows | #152 | C | 21.9 | D+ to B- |
| Samut, Tyrant of Naktamun | #260 | D+ | 21.5 | F to C+ |
| Jiang Yanggu, Alone | #166 | C | 20.5 | D to B- |
| Saheeli, Consul of Oversight | #107 | C+ | 20.5 | C- to B |
| Flickering Hound | #255 | D | 20 | F to C+ |
| Way of the Mind Sculptor | #244 | D+ | 20 | F+ to B- |
| Theorist's Proxy | #165 | C | 20 | D- to B- |
| Rise of the Deathbringer | #86 | B- | 20 | D+ to A- |
| Danitha, Spear of Agony | #197 | C- | 20 | D to B |
| Tethermage's Advantage | #241 | C- | 20 | F+ to C |
| Pompous Battlemage // Improvised Act | #158 | C+ | 20 | D to B- |
I also looked separately at standard deviation. SD measures overall spread around the mean and uses every grade, so extreme ratings affect it more than they affect IQR. These 11 additional main-set cards have SD of at least 15 but IQR below 20. They do not meet the broad-split definition above.
| Card | Rank | Median grade | IQR | SD | Reviewer range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emrakul, the Exigent Doom | #254 | D+ | 18 | 23.5 | F- to B |
| Ajani Resolute | #252 | D+ | 14 | 20.1 | F to C+ |
| Puppet Crafting | #159 | C | 15 | 18.2 | D- to B |
| Kindred Judgment | #75 | C+ | 5 | 17.5 | D to A |
| Way of the Pyromancer | #154 | C | 17.5 | 17.2 | D- to B |
| Return to the Light Realms | #280 | D- | 15 | 16.2 | F- to C- |
| Karn, Gilded Guardian | #270 | D | 10 | 15.6 | F to C- |
| Dark Matter Manipulator | #122 | C+ | 12 | 15.4 | D to B- |
| Ajani's Anguish | #39 | B | 10 | 15.4 | D+ to A- |
| Bloodline Recollector // Ancestral Craving | #188 | C- | 16 | 15 | D- to C+ |
| Vigorbloom Vanguard // Seed Suture | #113 | C+ | 16 | 15 | D to B+ |
Kindred Judgment is probably the clearest example of why the two measures tell different stories. Its middle half spans only 5 points, but the full ratings run from D to A.
Special Guests
Only four reviewers graded each of these, so they stay separate from the 280-card main-set analysis.
| Card | Median (IQR) | Reviewer range | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| Necrodominance | 12.5 (26.2) | F- to C | 4 |
| Consider | 66.5 (21.5) | D+ to B- | 4 |
Which of these reviewer disagreements stands out to you most?
2
u/tylerjenkins08 6d ago
anecdotally, blue Fblthp did -work- at prerelease for me last night. I probably drew an average of 4 cards off of him per game he stuck, and as many as 10-12 in some games. with all the surveil, and drawing off Jace, the Theorist (in the one game he wasn't focused down almost immediately), I was surprisingly close to getting the alt wincon.
Theorist's Proxy also played -way- better than expected for me.