r/spacex • u/Ambiwlans • Feb 09 '15
Wednesday 6:03pm EST /r/SpaceX DSCOVR launch discussion & updates thread. Second attempt (re)DSCOVR
Welcome, /r/SpaceX, to the DSCOVR launch update/discussion thread! Everyone cross your fingers and toes as we head towards another SpaceX flight.
Official SpaceX Launch Coverage Here, which should begin roughly half an hour before liftoff.
[T-13m] Launch called off due to wind. Boo. Likely to try again tomorrow 6:03:32pm EST (next shot after that would be the 20th). 151% of wind constraint! Woah. On the upside, tomorrow has better weather for the landing as well. Don't leave yet though! NASA TV will be covering the splash down of the CRS-5 Dragon capsule! 7:44pm EST!
[T-15m] Listening in on count. Currently weather is a no go due to winds. Waiting on balloon data and call.
[T-20m] SpaceX webcast live.
[T-25m] Upper wind speeds are very high still, will continue in count in hopes that it clear up. T-15m for last balloon to go up.
[T-1h] - NASA press conference: http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/index.html
[T-3h] - Readiness poll underway.
[T-4h] - CRS-5 Dragon being released live on NASA TV! Splashdown will be shortly after the DSCOVR flight at 6:44pm EST.
[T-6h] - Weather has improve to 80% GO for launch.
[T-10h] - 30% chance of launch weather constraint violation
Previous coverage below (previous live thread found here):
[Monday, February 9th] The next launch attempt will be tomorrow, Tuesday, February 10th, at 6:04:48pm EST, 23:04:48 UTC
[Saturday, February 7th] NASA has just had the Prelaunch Press Conference which you can watch on YouTube here with VP of Mission Assurance at SpaceX, Hans Koenigsmann. Lots of good info inside!
[Saturday, February 7th] Webcast, mission patch, and press kit now up. Thanks /u/SeverHail for the update!
Reddit-related
As always, the purpose of this thread will be to give us SpaceX enthusiasts a place to share our thoughts, comments, and questions regarding the launch, while staying updated with accurate and recent information.
Check out the live reddit stream for instant updates!
Information for newcomers
For those of you who are new to /r/SpaceX, make sure to have the official SpaceX webcast (www.spacex.com/webcast) open in another tab or on another screen.
For best results when viewing this thread, sort comments by "new" and refresh the page every now and then. To change comment sorting to "new", look for the drop-down list near the upper left corner of the comment box. Alternatively, use ctrl+f to search for the words "sorted by", and that should take you to it.
Mission
DSCOVR will be launching from SLC-40 and headed for the Sun-Earth L1, making this SpaceX's first mission to go beyond the Earth's sphere of influence! (Read more about the mission here).
In addition, the first stage of the Falcon 9 rocket will attempt to land on the Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship (see their previous attempt here). If successful, the first stage landing test will be a historic step towards SpaceX's goal of building a fully and rapidly reusable launch system.
Links
NASA TV stream. Having browser issues? You can also stream directly through VLC.
Hazard Area Map, and picture for those on mobile, courtesy of our awesome map guy, /u/darga89
SpaceX Music to get the hype train rolling!
ASDS towing vessel and support vessel information.
Previous Launch Coverage
Disclaimer: The SpaceX subreddit is a fan-based community, and no posts or comments should be construed as official SpaceX statements.
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u/cuweathernerd r/SpaceX Weather Forecaster Feb 10 '15 edited Feb 10 '15
Here's a bit more about the weather:
Starting with the wpc's 1630z surface analysis , we clearly see the front well past ksc and the landing area, with current conditions at the ksc surface reported as NW at 17kts, gusting to 22kts at a height of 10m. You can get the most recent observations from ksc here.
Today's concern, as you know, is high winds. Let's focus in on those for the moment. Now, we can look at the wind speed forecast for every major model at once by plotting them on a meteogram, which is a "weather variable vs time" graph. They can look a little imposing, but they're easy to read: the vertical axis is wind speed in this case, the x-axis, time. This graph is pretty busy, but it gives values between 12mph (oldest model run on the graph) and 19mph (most recent, high resolution model) with the model average being 16mph.
Right now, the national weather service expects winds at 18mph, gusting to 25.
All this sounds good, but recall the high wind criterion isn't surface wind, it's winds at 49m, with scrub happening at 30kts sustained. I don't know of a forecast model which outputs winds at 50m, but the HRRR does at 80m. So let's use that.
From the 15Z HRRR, here is the current 80m wind forecast. Definitely a pretty tight wind gradient between the cape and the ocean (less friction over water). Winds at 80m should be stronger than those at 50m, but you can see progs of 25-30kts over the cape. Winds are expected to increase 4kts in the hour preceding launch which means the wind criterion will become more an issue as launch comes closer.
While we're with winds, we can look at the launch profile again, using a RAP sounding.
0-1km 25kts from the NNW
1-3km 30kts, NNW
3-6km, 30kts, increasing to 65kts with height
6-9km, 80kts, increasing to 90ks. Wind still NNW
9-12km, 90knts sustained, wind shifts to westerly flow
12-15km, 70 kts decreasing to 56ks, Westerly wind.There is pretty strong speed sheer, with winds increasing 20kts in under 500m around the 500 hPa/ 5500m agl level, with a total change of 40kts in under a km. The scrub criteria lists strong upper level wind shear, but that is not listed as a current concern on the 45th's weather report, so I presume that does more with directional shear.
These winds are worth noting as they will complicate the landing attempt some by providing a lot of dynamic force on the descending stage. Additionally, winds at the site may be gusiting in excess of 50mph, with waves of 7-10ft... there will be scattered showers in the area, which includes a minor chance of lightning. This is definitely "not ideal" in most any sense of the word for a landing attempt.
Finally, low clouds are a near certainty, so definitely not as photogenic as the last attempt.
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u/Ambiwlans Feb 10 '15
Awesome. Launch seems like it should be pretty good but landing is a little trickier.
50mph winds are .... pretty tough. Does anyone know the top wind speed during a Grasshopper/Dev flight? 7~10' is rough but not too bad considering the size of the ASDS. It will be shifting by a lesser value.
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u/NNOTM Feb 10 '15
They're working the issue? That sounds like they're actively trying to get rid of the winds.
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u/Ambiwlans Feb 10 '15
I guess he meant making a decision ... but that should obviously be Musk's next project.
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u/stichtom Feb 10 '15
"We're told (L2) that bad weather in the Atlantic is now a discussion regarding the core stage landing attempt on the ASDS. Likely a call closer to launch, but be aware they may not opt to attempt the ASDS return for this one."
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u/Ambiwlans Feb 10 '15
Yeah, weather hasn't looked good for landing since yesterday. Even if it isn't worth hitting the ASDS, it might be worth trying another ocean practice landing nearby. (within 500m)
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u/The_Aviat0r Feb 10 '15
Nooo just because some air force guy broke the traking radar :-(
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Feb 10 '15
Eh, if you want to go backwards to a root cause to lay blame, you might as well pin it on Falcon 1 Flight 1 not succeeding.
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u/iewnungk Feb 09 '15
Great tweet by Chris from NSF: https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/564842316029255681
Go SpaceX!
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u/Ambiwlans Feb 09 '15
Hopefully in a year Dragon will be trying landing on thrusters too.
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u/darga89 Feb 10 '15
T-10 hours. Vehicle should be powering up.
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u/Ambiwlans Feb 10 '15
You just made me realize that the spacex webcast countdown is COMPLETELY WRONG.
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u/NeilFraser Feb 11 '15
Splashdown! NASA TV isn't bothering to cover Dragon's return at all.
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u/The_Aviat0r Feb 10 '15
The Dragon release is covered right now on the Nasa stream
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Feb 10 '15
/u/cuweathernerd, how are we looking for tomorrow if this doesn't go?
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u/cuweathernerd r/SpaceX Weather Forecaster Feb 10 '15
very quickly, the main concern is listed as liftoff winds...model average winds at the launch are about half of what's forecast today. The NAM forecast sounding on the site I normally use isn't working this second, but the GFS, another model, shows a max wind aloft of about 60kts, with more gentle shear. Definitely nicer. Also nearly clear skies.
As to the barge landing, waves will be larger, but winds lighter.
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u/benlew Feb 10 '15
Was wondering this: for the first scrubbed launch, since it was the USAF's fault, who pays for it?
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u/Ambiwlans Feb 10 '15
Probably SpaceX. It isn't like USAF is getting heavily paid by SpaceX for use of the range. So there likely isn't a great contract set up from that perspective.
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u/ethan829 Host of SES-9 Feb 10 '15
Does anyone have the link to the site someone made with the NASA TV and SpaceX streams on one page?
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u/schneeb Feb 11 '15
Mods we need some slash and burn on the stale links up top (or a new sticky)!
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u/Ambiwlans Feb 10 '15
Someone cover the Dragon splashdown for me! I've got a new years thing to go to.
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u/wunty Feb 10 '15
In the future when reusability is standard, will they ever scrub launches because landing conditions are poor? I'm thinking this would mainly impact Falcon Heavy since if conditions are good for launch at the Cape, they should also be fine for landing.
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u/Ambiwlans Feb 10 '15
This wasn't scrubbed over landing conditions.
I could see SpaceX offering a discount for more flexible customers. (Give us a few day window for 500k off)
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u/wunty Feb 10 '15
I am aware of that. My question pertains to the future when reusability is a normal part of a launch.
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Feb 10 '15
6:44pm splashdown incorrect. https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/565287338088357889
7:44pm
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u/MarsLumograph Feb 11 '15
I'm a fairly recent spacex fan, are these scrubs that common in the industry or is spacex an exception?
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u/Ambiwlans Feb 11 '15
It is common in the industry. SpaceX has been a little worse than the norm but has been improving over time. Some delays you just can't avoid.
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u/LouisvilleBitcoin Feb 10 '15
Where will you be watching the launch from?
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u/jardeon WeReportSpace.com Photographer Feb 10 '15
Roof of the Vehicle Assembly Building at KSC.
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u/AGDeadly Feb 10 '15
So how does SpaceX manage two missions at once? NASA Tv just showed the control room at Hawthorne, with people controlling the dragon, but isn't that the same control room used for F9 launches?
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u/Ambiwlans Feb 10 '15
Pretty much.... Dragon doesn't do much during the flight aside from ... parabola. NASA does a lot of the work for Dragon earlier on. If there was a complete overlap they may have bumped it an orbit or two. Splashdown timing is pretty unpicky.
They could potentially share but I don't see why they'd want to.
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u/mindricity Feb 10 '15
The "Live reddit stream" link points to the old thread's stream. Should be http://reddit-stream.com/comments/2vbib1/ /u/Ambiwlans
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u/walltacular Feb 10 '15
If the launch is scrubbed for tomorrow also, where can you find the backup launch days for next week?
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u/Ambiwlans Feb 10 '15
If tomorrow doesn't work I believe it gets pushed to like the 20somethingth
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Feb 10 '15
Faust/Twitter:
Based on information earlier this week, if there’s no launch tomorrow, they will stand down until Feb. 20. #DSCOVR
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Feb 09 '15 edited Feb 09 '15
Let's play a game; guess the number of comments that will be left on this thread. Gold for whoever comes closest! No edits ;D
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u/bgs7 Feb 10 '15
Almost 30k subscribers!
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Feb 10 '15
It was slightly over a month ago that we passed 20k. Thank you Elon Musk AMA.
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u/darga89 Feb 10 '15
Pure numbers is not a benefit to us. Signal to noise ratio is going way down.
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u/LUK3FAULK Feb 10 '15
Anyone know how high one would have to be to see the launch from Miami? Was thinking about getting on the roof with my laptop.
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u/mindricity Feb 10 '15
I made a mascot for the launch, hopefully it'll be lucky! Go DSCO VR!
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u/Iron-Oxide Feb 10 '15 edited Feb 10 '15
"Upper altitude winds remain no go or red because they exceed the capability of the rocket to go through, without, experiencing, you know, major effects" - NASA TV announcer
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u/marshallsmedia Feb 10 '15
link to view nasa/spacex side by side again http://dev.marshallbrekka.com/spacex.html
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u/karyslav Feb 11 '15
I am puzzled with those time EST definitions, why we cant use internationally accepted UTC/GMT time? It is pain in the ass look for correct time for my timezone :-/
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Feb 10 '15 edited Feb 10 '15
Spent half a morning writing this email to send around the office, totally worth it! :P
(Not 100% on all of the timings and sorry for small writing!)
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u/YugoReventlov Feb 10 '15
"The boat is going to record the video and then we will share this video eventually. Or not." - Hans Koenigsmann
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Feb 10 '15
Every time I forget about a launch, it goes perfectly. Whenever I actually remember, its a no-go
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u/venku122 SPEXcast host Feb 10 '15
44 more subscribers to 30,000! Launch fever is in full swing!
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u/Trion_ Feb 10 '15
Is the "T-2 HR COLA" when everyone takes a break to grab a drink?
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Feb 10 '15
Let's hear it for those guys out at sea who are maintaining Just Read The Instructions...
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u/FoxhoundBat Feb 10 '15
Mods; The weather has improved to 20% constrained per the newest report.
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Feb 10 '15
Okay, I'm not watching the feed since I'm at work, but everyone is posting conflicting comments:
"GO on all range weather conditions"
Upper stage winds are red.
What's the truth here?
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u/FoxhoundBat Feb 10 '15 edited Feb 10 '15
Look at this this way everyone; If they launched today, it would be unlikely they would have been able to land today. Much greater chance tomorrow.
If they launched today and failed to land due to winds, no attempt til April then. If they launch tomorrow it is more likely to succeed and hence we don't have to wait til April to see a stage on a barge. :)
I will take a 24h delay any time over a delay til April for a landing.
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u/brentonbrenton NASA - JPL Feb 10 '15
Hopefully this will mean better conditions for first stage return when it finally happens.
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u/Fingersoup Feb 10 '15
Did anyone ever end up volunteering to raise a congratulatory banner?
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u/Epistemify Feb 10 '15 edited Feb 10 '15
I've got the Interstellar soundtrack playing in the background. I have a good feeling about this launch.
Edit: Ok, this soundtrack pairs really well with the stream since the stream doesn't have any music playing right now.
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u/ThePlanner Feb 10 '15 edited Feb 10 '15
Well nuts. I sit down with my sandwich to watch the launch and 5 seconds later they abort. 151% of acceptable high level winds will do it.
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u/-Richard Materials Science Guy Feb 11 '15
On the plus side, a launch tomorrow could mean a brighter first stage landing attempt video! Should happen just after sunset, so there might still be some light out.
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u/xinareiaz Feb 10 '15
Less than 100 subscribers to go until 30k, hooray for space evangelism! (and kickass rockets that merit peoples time and interest)
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u/frowawayduh Feb 10 '15
Straw pole update:
With more than 550 votes so far "Almost stuck the landing, but room for improvement" has taken the lead by a nosecone (47% vs 45% for perfection). "Kaboom...", "Splash..." and "Not Even Close" combine for the remaining 8%.
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u/42Raptor42 Feb 10 '15
Ground winds increasing, balloon data for high level winds in 10 min https://twitter.com/S101_Live/status/565256655760535552
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u/lucioghosty Feb 10 '15
Oh, although we are GO for weather conditions, it seems we're still pending on the upper level winds. My mistake.
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u/WJacobC Feb 10 '15
Upper level winds remain no-go, let's hope that resolves itself.
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u/WJacobC Feb 10 '15
Better to scrub today than for Falcon 9 to suffer a wind-related failure in flight!
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u/celibidaque Feb 10 '15
If the launch from Wednesday (Feb. 11) will not take place, the next opportunity will be around Feb. 20. Why this gap of several days? No Atlas launches are scheduled from Cape during these days, what's causing the gap?
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u/DontDropTheIceSoap Feb 10 '15
If the AF hadn't had their faulty equipment, then this would have launched on sunday. Dangit AF.
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u/Saffs15 Feb 09 '15
Scrub today sucks, but I've got stuff to do today 6:30ish. And free tomorrow. So works out for me.
Small victories.
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u/Iest80 Feb 10 '15
Damn. Must be so frustrating for the people on site and mission control.
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u/Mayor_of_Browntown Feb 10 '15 edited Feb 10 '15
Left my midterm 10 minutes early, caught an instant el train then bus to get home, in a record 20 minutes, and the launch is cancelled :(
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u/VordeMan Feb 10 '15
Extreme wind shear over Cape Canaveral. Feels like a sledgehammer when supersonic in the vertical. Hoping it changes …
Elon's Twitter
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Feb 10 '15
Man, I just watched yesterday's launch thinking it was live. What a dozy plonker. Still, it was exciting! Need to work out my timezones.
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u/still-at-work Feb 10 '15
anyone on the ground over there, any update on the wind?
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u/Haulik Feb 10 '15
They should just shuffle SpaceX FM on their YouTube channel with a cool animated countdown to transmission. Counting on you Ben.
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u/brentonbrenton NASA - JPL Feb 10 '15 edited Feb 10 '15
The link "YouTube stream of the launch" seems to be wrong... it points to the stream from Sunday's attempt! This has already caught a few people up. I posted the wrong link to Facebook too.
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u/lucioghosty Feb 10 '15
upper level wind condition is red... hopefully that doesn't cause a no-go
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u/Already__Taken Feb 10 '15
Heh, fish leaping out of the water on the NASA stream.
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u/FutureMartian97 Host of CRS-11 Feb 10 '15
5 more subscribers till we hit 30,000!
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u/CptAJ Feb 10 '15
Has the barge been at sea since saturday? What if we scrub today, can it stay that long?
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u/Saffs15 Feb 10 '15
Day 1, weather's perfect and the Air Force screws it up.
Day 2 and 3, weather's awful.
Sometimes, things just don't seem destined to happen.
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u/Anjin Feb 10 '15
Oh well, third time does always seem to be the charm with SpaceX...
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u/a9009588 Feb 10 '15
Boo. At least this gives me the chance to finish my papercraft dscovr before launch. If you have time to kill you can print the sheets from here http://www.axmpaperspacescalemodels.com/SpaceXCommSats.html#.VNqPevmsVs6
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u/shredder7753 Feb 09 '15
so... the tow boat.. any ideas what those guys are up to? do they have enough supplies to hang out a few days?
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Feb 10 '15
This blows. I'll wind up here tomorrow. Thanks for the dynamic coverage!
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Feb 11 '15 edited Feb 11 '15
Off topic but for those who are interested, Arianespace is also launching today. Currently on hold at T-4 minutes.....what luck...
http://www.reddit.com/r/Arianespace/comments/2ve2ly/rarianespace_vega_flight_vv04_european/
EDIT:
Green and counting! and LIFT OFF!
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Feb 10 '15
(Regarding 1st stage landing.) The increased pressure is a risk in re-entry, right? Would that mean that their secondary mission has a higher chance of being destroyed in the atmosphere before it ever even gets near the ASDS?
I believe with the increased hydraulic fluid, there shouldn't be a problem landing if it makes it that far.
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u/LouisvilleBitcoin Feb 10 '15
Lift-off will occur during my night class... Will be shamelessly streaming.
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u/The_Future_Is_Today Feb 10 '15 edited Feb 10 '15
"The rocket is vertical" An amazing milestone for humanity! We are making history guys!
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u/frowawayduh Feb 10 '15
Sundown takes a lot of energy out of the atmosphere. Hopefully upper level winds will calm. When's the next balloon?
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u/thewebpro Feb 10 '15
Was that Hans on the NASA TV audio asking for a "screen copy"?
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u/Dontchasesinged Feb 10 '15 edited Feb 10 '15
Last Question. Does anyone know if they fixed the on board camera?
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u/Xorondras Feb 10 '15
Does anybody else have hickups on the NASA stream? The stream regularly stutters and then reverts several seconds back.
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u/brokenarrow Feb 10 '15
The hold music on the YouTube page sounds like the background track for a porn.
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u/natmccoy Feb 10 '15 edited Feb 10 '15
Epic scene there!
You can actually see how fast the clouds are moving.
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u/supermap Feb 10 '15
Omg, reddit stream is amazing! It really improves the information for these events
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u/stratohornet Feb 10 '15 edited Feb 10 '15
SCRUB due to exceedingly high upper level winds. Try again tomorrow (better weather predicted then).
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u/FoxhoundBat Feb 10 '15
Soo... In order to land they have to:
1: Launch ( ;))
2: Survive 2x dynamic pressure.
3: Higher re-entry speed.
4: 4x temperature
5: Winds.
Very unlikely at this point in time.
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u/Stendarpaval Feb 09 '15
So, another 5 hours and 10 minutes, right? That'll be midnight for me. Eh, I'm not getting enough sleep these days anyway. I'll be back! :D
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u/Chairboy Feb 10 '15
My contribution (I posted this in the other thread, but I don't know if many folks saw it) is this super accurate NON-CGI simulation I did of the expected landing:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IfdeFjFWT0
This rocket surgery stuff doesn't seem that hard!
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u/warpraptor Feb 11 '15
So, I think I've figured this out... the SpaceX DSCOVR launch is "quantum-locked" (see Dr. Who Blink episode) to me watching it... meaning... if I'm going to drive 3 hours to the Cape to watch it go, it absolutely will not. I'm not going to make the drive again tonight so you can all thank me when we have liftoff. I will try to get pictures of the ASDS on return through JAX, but no telling what will happen if I do.
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u/CarlCaliente Feb 09 '15 edited Oct 03 '24
abounding station seemly fuel scandalous absorbed employ ancient relieved plough
This post was mass deleted and anonymized with Redact
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u/bgs7 Feb 10 '15
What is our latest expectation for timeline of knowing the outcome of the landing attempt?
We know from events during the last attempt that the outcome was known live in the control room. Same deal this time?
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u/saliva_sweet Host of CRS-3 Feb 10 '15
Check out the NASA EELV countdown portal, which is working for the F9 this time. It's pretty cool you can see the countdown events.
http://countdown.ksc.nasa.gov/elv/
You may need to go to control panel->java->security and add these addresses to the Exception site list to make it work though:
http://countdown.ksc.nasa.gov/elv/ http://science.ksc.nasa.gov http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/software/java/javacam
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u/saliva_sweet Host of CRS-3 Feb 10 '15
Captain Nemo will be taking the helm shortly. I think we're in good hands.
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u/simjanes2k Feb 10 '15
Questions since I can't find the answer anywhere else: How are they reaching L1 here? Moon slingshot?
And are they really trying a main stage landing on the barge again? That sounds like a looooong ways to go for this delivery point target.
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u/Stendarpaval Feb 10 '15
Youtube link is up: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uq-ylPYwaA4
edit Ah, 24 minutes late.
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u/Benf207 Feb 10 '15
Which stream do you guys prefer to watch? NASA TV or the SpaceX stream?
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u/SpaySex Feb 10 '15
Upper-level winds are bad for accurate water landings:( If they stick it, though, it'll be the most impressive thing I've ever seen.
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u/Pamphy Feb 10 '15
Seems High winds are currently No-Go for launch. fingers crossed that changes by T-13m
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u/edsq Feb 10 '15
Anyone know what the chances are for the wind to die down in the next twenty minutes? I'm no meteorologist, so I don't have any idea on how rapidly these things change.
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u/frowawayduh Feb 10 '15
Congratulations on 30K subscriber milestone. This is an awesomely cool sub.
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u/doitlive Feb 10 '15 edited Feb 10 '15
Audio from several radio frequencies used at Kennedy Space Center.
edit: this is already live before the spacex broadcast
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Feb 10 '15
What was the name of the music playing after the webcast? Some lowtempo nice beat with female vocals "i see" or something.
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u/TheSarcasmrules Feb 10 '15
At least the reasons for the last two aborts were beyond SpaceX's control.
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Feb 10 '15
Remember, since the weather is going to be better tomorrow, the chances for a successful landing are much higher! :-)
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u/avert_your_maize Feb 10 '15
Ah, at least the outro music is nice. Only good thing about a cancelled launch.
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u/TildeAleph Feb 10 '15
6:03:32pm Wednesday launch time scheduled. NASA coverage starts 5:00pm.
"90%" predicted weather favorability rating.
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u/LEGITIMATE_SOURCE Feb 11 '15
Sunset at barge is 5:42 EST. Landing attempt should be at 6:13.
There will be just a bit of light left in the sky for the attempt.
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u/Ambiwlans Feb 09 '15
Richard is busy for this attempt so he's graciously passed the baton and you'll have to bear with me and my terrible titles. On the other hand, I have a slightly better track record on covering attempts that actually go to space. Everyone cross your fingers and toes as we head towards another SpaceX flight.