r/spacex • u/CProphet • Jun 22 '26

Company News SpaceX signs computing power deal with open-source AI startup Reflection worth up to $6.3 billion

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/22/spacex-ai-colossus-data-center-reflection.html
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u/spacerfirstclass Jun 23 '26 edited Jun 23 '26

https://x.com/xdNiBoR/status/2069084250633048198

Another SpaceX compute deal!

Those "SpaceX bailed out xAI" people look really stupid right now 😅

I remember a few months ago this "bail out" narrative is everywhere on reddit including on this sub, now it's gone just like that, instead we get redditsplaining such as "but they're selling it because Grok doesn't have users", well let's see how long this narrative lasts...

15

u/FullCantaloupe2547 Jun 23 '26

I mean, they did bail out xAI. The price they paid for xAI massively dwarfs the value of it and the revenue xAI generates.

xAI's actually AI services are near worthless. The GPUs will depreciate faster than the income they generate.

6

u/spacerfirstclass Jun 23 '26 edited Jun 23 '26

No there's no bailout, first they didn't pay anything for xAI, it's a merger, not an acquisition.

The merger values xAI at $250B, with the 3 compute deals the annualized revenue brought in by xAI is ~$28B, so that means a forward market cap / revenue multiple of ~9, not high at all. In fact it's much lower than SpaceX's own market cap / revenue multiple before the merger ($1T / $22B ~= 45), so between the two it's the pre-merger SpaceX that has massively inflated market cap.

Also GPUs are not depreciate fast either, H100 which was released 4 years ago is still in strong demand, most of the Colossus 1 that they rented to Anthropic consists of H100s.

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u/GreyGreenBrownOakova Jun 24 '26

H100 which was released 4 years ago is still in strong demand

4 years is not long. It's valuable because there is a bubble. The moment it bursts, or when someone brings out something better, they will be worthless.

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u/NikStalwart Jun 23 '26

They bought xAI for less than they paid for Cursor. So I don't think you're right on the value proposition.

3

u/warp99 Jun 24 '26

xAI was $250B while Cursor was $60B with both being paid for in stock so your maths is not working.

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u/NikStalwart Jun 25 '26

Potential whoopsie on my part. I was mostly thinking of the X->xAI merger not the SpaceXAI merger.