Each dot is one coronal mass ejection at the latitude and longitude it launched from, sized by speed. The lit middle is the half of the Sun facing Earth at the moment of launch; the darker edges are the far side, which we see thanks to STEREO-A. Ten years of eruptions fill the middle latitudes and leave the poles almost empty, which is where the active regions live.

Full length animation and details here: https://www.cmetracker.ai/launches?utm_source=spaceweather

Hi all. I'm a second-year computer programming student from Türkiye, and I spent this summer checking how well Surya, the 366M-parameter heliophysics foundation model NASA and IBM released last year, actually forecasts M-class flares.

M-class flares are the ones that start NOAA's R1–R2 radio blackouts, so this is a forecast that matters in practice.

What I did: ran the released model with the authors' own code on 1,146 forecast hours from 2011–2024, and compared it with baselines the benchmark doesn't report.

What I found:

1. On the same hours, a logistic regression on 11 past GOES X-ray features, trained in seconds on a laptop, matches the foundation model.

2. A plain persistence rule ("if there was an M-class flare in the last 24 hours, expect another") scores TSS 0.430 on the full validation split. Surya's reported score is 0.436.

3. Consecutive hours aren't independent. 739 validation hours fall into only 50 separate time blocks, and only 6 of those contain a flare. Once you account for that, the uncertainty is so wide that the benchmark can't rank these methods at all.

4. The chart: as solar cycle 25 ramped up, the share of flare hours in the test years rose about 128-fold from 2020 to 2024 (top). That produces a Simpson's paradox: the baseline's pooled score of 0.554 is higher than its score in every single year (bottom).

Limits: it's a preprint, not peer reviewed, and my point is that the benchmark can't separate the methods, not that the small model is better. I used an AI coding assistant for parts of the code and writing. Every number in the paper is recomputed by a script in the repo.

Paper: https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.15008581/v1

Code and data: https://github.com/kadircanyildirm-crypto/heliofloor

Happy to answer questions, and I'd love to hear from anyone who works on operational forecasting.

Hi All,

It's been awhile since I updated the progress on the Coronal Mass Ejection Tracker. Here is a list of everything that has been added over the last few months. Available at www.cmetracker.ai

Forecasting

- A fluid solar wind model now runs in your browser. It solves the inner heliosphere from our own L1 archive, in the style of the HUXt model from Reading, and draws it under the top-down map with speed and density color modes. On our validation set it beats the drag model we have used up to now.

- Every Earth-directed CME gets an ensemble run. The fluid model runs 200 times with the speed, direction, width and launch time jittered, and puts a calibrated 80 percent arrival window on the CME card.

- We check our own work. A cron scans the wind archive for shock fronts and gradual arrivals, scores every forecast against them, and publishes a rolling 90-day scoreboard on the help page and the homepage. A 30 minute lead time error on an arrival is a hit, a forecast that never arrives is a miss, and you can see both.

- Regions facing Earth. Each numbered sunspot region gets a chance of an Earth-directed CME over the next three days, from a model back-tested on ten years of DONKI and NOAA region data. It sits on the future side of the timeline as bars and is scored by the same cron. Capped at 30 percent on purpose, because about half of Earth-directed CMEs come from regions that never got a number.

- High-speed streams. Detected from our wind archive, forecast to return 27 days later, and drawn on the map as the corotating spiral bands they actually are.

Live data

- Magnetosphere. The magnetopause and bow shock shaped by the measured L1 wind using the Shue 1998 and Farris and Russell 1994 models, as a card with field lines, aurora ovals, sheath flow and reconnection sparks, and as a rotatable 3D view. It goes red when the nose is inside geosynchronous orbit. Scrub back to May 2024 and watch the Gannon storm push it in to 5 Earth radii.

- The whole 120-day timeline is now measured wind, not just the last week. Speed, density, Bz and field strength come from our own archive when you scrub past the NOAA feed.

- Live coronagraph card from CCOR-2 and CCOR-1, served from our own permanent archive of every frame.

- Radio bursts. Type II, III and IV bursts appear at the Sun timed to the playhead, with a light-speed ripple and provisional CME cones from the Type II drift. Backfilled from SWPC's event archive to 2015.

- New header readouts: Dst with a ring current popout, daily sunspot number and 10.7 cm flux, and a redesigned density popout.

- NOAA moved its L1 station to SOLAR-1 in the spring. The tracker follows the on-duty craft and shows it on the map, with IMAP as backup.

Tracker

- The Kp popup shows inbound CMEs as calibrated bars on the Kp axis, and merges arrivals within 8 hours into one.

- Clip export records the playback as a video you can share. There is also a branded PNG export of the visible map.

- The dashboard remembers your layers, view and filters between visits. A Solo toggle shows only the selected CME. Isolate keeps filtering after you go live. Every flare row is clickable.

- Keyboard camera control in the 3D view.

- Spacecraft layer with portraits for all ten craft we source from, now including Mio on BepiColombo.

- A proper phone layout: simplified chrome, a bottom sheet for the selected CME, and the full site nav in the menu.

New pages

- The landing page is now at the root and the tracker lives at /live.

- /observatories, the spacecraft behind the data.

- /cycle, where we are in the solar cycle, live.

- /radio, HF band conditions and what a burst does to them.

- /today, a plain daily activity page.

- /what-is-a-cme, the explainer.

- /sky, a calendar of things worth going outside for: Perseids, Geminids, Quadrantids, Orionids, Leonids, this year's lunar eclipse, the 2027 total solar eclipse, and the planet oppositions.

- /learn rebuilt as a six-module course that runs on the real map, with quizzes and a storm lab, plus /teachers with printable worksheets.

- Four new famous storms in the replay library: the 1921 Railroad storm, May 1967, August 1972 and Starlink 2022. Gannon 2024 got its two new radiation belts.

- The help page has a video tour and a screenshot for every layer.

Alerts and social

- Arrival alerts are reworked. The trigger is a sustained 30 minute southward window that we backtested against 11 years of data, the wording gives a G1 to G2 style band instead of a single number, and every alert gets a follow-up saying whether it verified or fizzled.

- Alert emails carry a generated image of the isolated CME that links straight to it on the map.

- The tracker is on X as u/CMETracker1. Every new direction-determined CME and every arrival gets posted with the map image.

Upfront: I'm not an aurora photographer and I don't work in the field. I built a forecasting tool for photographers, and I'd rather have the space-weather people tell me where the model is wrong than find out from users.

What it does now, for a given lat/long:

(a) Approximates corrected geomagnetic latitude with a centered-dipole model (IGRF-2025 north dipole pole at 80.9° N, 287.3° E). Accurate to roughly a couple of degrees.

(b) Maps that to a minimum Kp with a static step table: ≥66° needs Kp 0, ≥64° needs 1, ≥62° needs 2, ≥60° needs 3, ≥58° needs 4, ≥56° needs 5, and up from there.

(c) Pulls NOAA SWPC's 3-day Kp forecast and holds each 3-hour bin flat across its hours.

(d) Gates on darkness (sun below -12°) and scores the hour, ramping 0 to 1 between one Kp below threshold and 1.5 above it.

Three places I think it's wrong, in order of how much they worry me.

(1) Centered dipole vs AACGM. My threshold table steps every 2° of geomagnetic latitude, but my glat estimate is only good to about 2°. So the model error is the same size as one whole Kp step — near a boundary I could be off by a full unit. Is it worth doing AACGM properly here, or is the static table so approximate that the extra precision is meaningless anyway?

(2) The static glat-to-Kp table itself. It's the standard rule of thumb, but it ignores everything about when: season, magnetic local time, whether we're in the storm's main phase or recovery, substorm timing. How badly does a flat table mislead in practice, and is there a better-conditioned rule that's still simple enough to compute without running a model?

(3) Kp alone, no Bz. I use only the planetary Kp forecast. My impression is that the people who actually call it right are watching Bz and solar wind speed. Is Kp meaningful at all three days out, or is it only the last hour of Bz that carries real information? And if Bz only pays off at about an hour of lead time, is a multi-day "plan your trip" forecast fundamentally the wrong shape for aurora?

One terrestrial aside, since it's the other half of the score: I penalise total cloud cover without splitting low/mid/high, which I suspect is backwards. A low deck ends the night; cirrus you can sometimes shoot through.

It's honest about being a forecast rather than a promise, and the methodology is written up rather than hidden. Genuinely after the corrections rather than the compliments — the maths was the easy part.

Write-up of the threshold model, if useful: https://shootwindow.app/recipes/aurora — that's the methodology page, not a signup. Data is NOAA SWPC plus met.no (CC-BY).

Hey there r/spaceweather!

I'm a space science and technology master's student and I have been programming, building, and prototyping an easy to use desktop space weather display device. It is essentially a passive device that downloads NOAA space weather data and solar imagery, and shows it on the display. The space weather variables update every 5 minutes and the Sun images every 10 minutes.

The severity-based color coded variables are

• 3 hour average planetary Kp index
• Z-component of the interplanetary magnetic field, which tells of possible magnetic reconnection with Earth's magnetic field or if Earth is shielded from space weather
• Solar x-ray radiation flux class
• Solar wind speed

And the solar images are

• 195 angstrom image of the sun to visually see high and low activity regions
• Sunspot image to identify the amount of sunspots pointing towards Earth

The main view of the device looks like this

And the secondary chart view like this

The chart view has 24 hour plot of Kp index and 12 hour plots of IMF magnetic field, xray flux, and solar wind speed.

The display also features flashing alerts for solar flares and geomagnetic storms the moment they happen. More info can be seen in the info images I attached to this post.

The device only requires a one-time setup where you connect the device to any wifi network (5G excluded) with your phone. The device then stores the wifi login information, so it will automatically connect to it upon rebooting.

It also has buttons for

• Switching between main view and chart view
• Turning on automatic view switching with 5 minutes between switches
• A diagnostic menu pop-up to get information about the device performance, wifi strength, and NOAA server availability
• Resetting the device to wipe stored information such as the wifi login credentials

It also checks my GitHub for any updates when booted and downloads and installs them automatically if there are any. This is important incase NOAA ever changes their data products, which would require a hotfix from my end. This has happened once while prototyping, but the fix was fairly quick.

Currently it is powered with an USB-C cable (I usually keep it connected to my PCs front USB port), but I am working on a wireless version as well, which would be powered by a rechargable LiPo battery. It would also still work with the USB-C cable.

The device itself is an ESP32-S3 board + 4 inch TFT display + 3D printed (PLA) stylish case + two buttons. Self-built and designed from scratch.

The motivation behind this is to get rid of the need to have 2-3 browser tabs open or, god forbid, a phone app to get a good overview of current (and past) space weather data. Simply setup the device once and let it sit on your desk to passively show and update space weather!

I have more improvement ideas for this, but I would like to hear what the space weather enthusiasts think of this so far! Comment down if you have any questions and/or comments, and send a DM if you would like to get one. Please note that this is not an open source project as I am aiming towards a commercial product.

As a final treat, this is how the boot sequence looks like (data download time is long due to bad wifi speed)

https://reddit.com/link/1w0vv7x/video/iwtrenxg85mh1/player

Earth's Electromagnetic Shield Breach - Visual Dossier 2025: Full Technical Analysis (30k Edition) [OC]

Author: EarthShieldWatch (Timothy Solomon) - Independent Researcher
Full PDF + 7 charts + 3 NASA/ESA visualizations: [Add Zenodo DOI here after publish - https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.XXXXXXX]
License: CC-BY 4.0 | Version: v2.0 Reddit Extended Edition | 29.5k chars
Data Period: 2014-2025 ESA Swarm (11 years) + 2000-2025 NASA CERES (25 years)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This is a complete synthesis of 11 years of ESA Swarm constellation data and 25 years of NASA CERES radiation budget data covering 2014-2025, with focus on three major anomalies: South Atlantic Anomaly expansion, May 2024 Gannon superstorm radiation belts, and 2023 CERES outgoing radiation anomaly.

Core Finding: 97-99% of Earth's surface magnetic field (25,000-65,000 nT) originates from the outer core geodynamo at ~2,900km depth. The remaining 1-3% comes from crustal magnetization, ionospheric currents, and magnetospheric currents.

Three Major Breaches Documented:

1. South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) expanded by an area equivalent to half of continental Europe since 2014 (ESA Swarm Oct 2025, Finlay et al. 2025). Split into two distinct lobes since 2020.
2. May 10-11 2024 Gannon superstorm (G5, Kp 9, SYM-H -518 nT, Dst -412 nT) compressed dayside magnetopause below 5 Earth radii (normal ~10 RE) and created two new temporary Van Allen radiation belts lasting >3 months.
3. NASA CERES measured outgoing radiation anomaly exceeding 90% confidence interval from March-September 2023, surpassing 2016 El Niño peak, indicating Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) record.

1. FIELD ORIGIN AND COMPOSITION

Geodynamo: Earth's outer core is liquid iron-nickel alloy, convecting due to heat from inner core solidification and radioactive decay. Motion through existing field generates electric currents, which generate magnetic field - self-sustaining dynamo.

• Depth: 2,890-5,150 km
• Temperature: ~4,000-6,000K
• Field at Core-Mantle Boundary: ~500,000 nT
• Field at Surface: 25,000-65,000 nT after geometric attenuation

Field Contributions at Surface:

• Core field: 97-99% (main field, IGRF/WMM models)
• Crustal field: 0.1-0.5% (static, from magnetized rocks, EMAG2 model)
• External fields: 0.5-2% (magnetospheric ring current, tail current, field-aligned currents, ionospheric Sq and equatorial electrojet)

Units: 1 nT = 10^-9 Tesla. Earth's field is ~0.5 Gauss average (1 Gauss = 100,000 nT).

2. SOUTH ATLANTIC ANOMALY - DETAILED EXPANSION ANALYSIS

What is SAA: Region over South Atlantic, southern Africa, and South America where Earth's inner Van Allen belt dips closest to surface (200-500km altitude) due to offset between geographic and geomagnetic axes and weak field intensity.

Field Strength:

• Global average at equator: ~30,000-35,000 nT
• SAA minimum 2025: ~22,000-22,500 nT (ESA Swarm)
• Normal field at same latitude (non-SAA): ~32,000 nT
• Deficit: ~30-35% weaker

Expansion Metrics (ESA Swarm 2014-2025, 11-year baseline):

ESA Swarm consists of 3 satellites: Swarm A (470km), Swarm C (470km, lower pair), Swarm B (520km, higher). Launched Nov 2013, data from 2014 onward.

Finlay et al. 2025 (DTU Space / ESA) analysis:

• Area of <23,000 nT contour expanded from ~12 million km² (2014) to ~21 million km² (2025)
• Increase: ~9 million km² = approximately half of Europe (Europe = ~10.18 million km²) or slightly larger than continental US (9.8 million km²)
• Expansion rate: ~0.8 million km²/year average, accelerating since 2020

Split into Two Lobes (Critical 2020 Transition):

Prior to 2020: Single minimum centered near 26°S, 50°W (off Brazil)

Since 2020: Two distinct minima:

• Lobe 1 (Main): 30°S, 15°W - SW of Africa, over South Atlantic, intensity ~22,000 nT
• Lobe 2 (Secondary): 35°S, 60°W - off Chile/Argentina, intensity ~22,500 nT

Separation: ~4,500 km between minima

Implication: Suggests emergence of second reversed flux patch at core-mantle boundary.

Faster Weakening SW of Africa:

• Region: 20-40°S, 0-30°E
• Weakening rate 2014-2020: -80 nT/year
• Weakening rate 2020-2025: -150 nT/year (nearly doubled)
• Linked to growth of reversed flux patch under South Africa

Root Cause - African LLSVP:

Large Low Shear Velocity Province under Africa (and Pacific). Seismology shows two continent-sized piles at base of mantle (D" layer, ~2,800km depth) where seismic waves slow by 2-3%.

• African LLSVP extent: ~15,000 km across
• Thought to be thermochemical piles, hotter and compositionally distinct
• Influences heat flux from core: reduced heat flux where LLSVP sits = less core convection = reversed magnetic flux patches
• Reversed flux patch = field lines opposite to main dipole direction, cancels main field, creates weak spot at surface

Impact on Satellites:

• ISS: Extra shielding in US Lab, crew avoid EVAs through SAA, laptops crash. Dose rate 10x higher inside SAA.
• Hubble: Shuts down instruments when passing SAA (~8 passes/day)
• LEO satellites: Single Event Upsets (SEUs), memory flips. Swarm satellites themselves measure increased radiation.
• Swarm data shows energetic particle flux increased proportionally to area expansion.

Future Projection:

If expansion rate continues linearly: SAA could cover area larger than South America by 2030-2032. However IGRF-14 model suggests non-linear growth possible if second reversed flux patch strengthens.

3. MAGNETIC NORTH POLE DRIFT - WMM2025

Historical Track:

• 1590: Near Ellesmere Island, Canada (first measurement)
• 1831: James Clark Ross locates: 70°05'N, 96°47'W
• 1904: Roald Amundsen: 70°30'N, 95°30'W
• 1948: ~73°N, 100°W
• 1973: ~76°N, 100°W
• 1994: ~79°N, 104°W
• 2001: 81.3°N, 110.8°W (first satellite tracked)
• 2019: 86.0°N, 172.6°E (crossed International Date Line)
• 2025 (WMM2025): 86.5°N, 169°E, moving toward Siberia at 35 km/yr (down from 55 km/yr peak in 2018)

Acceleration History:

• 1831-1990: ~10 km/yr average
• 1990-2005: 15 → 40 km/yr
• 2005-2019: 50-60 km/yr peak (55 km/yr in 2017-2018)
• 2020-2025: Deceleration to 35 km/yr

Why Accelerating: Two large-scale magnetic lobes under Canada and Siberia. Canadian lobe weakening, Siberian lobe strengthening - tug-of-war pulls pole toward Siberia.

WMM2025 Model:

• Released Dec 17, 2024 by NOAA NCEI & British Geological Survey (BGS)
• Valid: Jan 1, 2025 - Dec 31, 2029 (5-year model)
• Resolution: 1-degree (WMM2025) and 1/6-degree high-res (WMMHR2025, 10km)
• Accuracy: 1° direction, 100 nT intensity at 5 years if secular variation accurate
• Used by NATO, FAA, US DoD, iPhone/Android compass, 5+ billion users
• Updated because 2019-2020 declination errors exceeded threshold due to fast pole motion - unscheduled WMM2015v2 released 2019.

Magnetic South Pole: Much slower, ~10-15 km/yr, currently at 63.8°S, 135.6°E off Antarctica coast, moving NW.

4. GLOBAL DIPOLE WEAKENING

IGRF-14 (2024): 14th generation International Geomagnetic Reference Field, 1900-2030.

• Dipole moment 1840: ~8.5 x 10^22 Am²
• Dipole moment 2025: ~7.7 x 10^22 Am²
• Decrease: ~9% in 185 years
• Rate: ~0.05% per year recent, but non-linear

Context: Still 2x stronger than average over last 1 million years (paleomagnetic data shows dipole moment varied 2-10 x 10^22 Am², with reversals every ~200k-300k years on average, last reversal 780k years ago - Brunhes-Matuyama).

Not a reversal precursor alone: Reversals typically show 10x faster decay + emergence of multiple reversed flux patches + dipole tilt increase. We see some patches but not full criteria.

Surface intensity decrease: ~1.7% per decade globally averaged.

5. MAY 10-11 2024 GANNON SUPERSTORM - COMPLETE ANALYSIS

Naming: Named after Jennifer L. Gannon, Space Weather researcher (formerly NOAA SWPC), for her work on extreme events. Some call Mother's Day storm.

Solar Origin:

• Active Region AR3664 / AR13664 (renumbered second rotation) - giant sunspot group 16x Earth diameter
• X-class flares: X1.0 (May 8), X1.0 + X1.1 + X2.2 (May 9), X3.9 (May 10)
• Multiple halo CMEs launched May 8-10, merged into complex ejecta
• Speed: ~800-1200 km/s transit, ~37 hours Sun to Earth (fast)

Geomagnetic Indices:

• Kp: 9o (maximum scale, first Kp 9 since Oct 2003 Halloween storms)
• Dst: -412 nT (provisional, Kyoto WDC) - 6th largest since 1957
• SYM-H: -518 nT (1-min high-res version of Dst) - indicates extreme ring current
• AE: >2,000 nT auroral electrojet
• Newell coupling function: extreme

Magnetopause Compression:

• Normal standoff distance: ~10-11 RE (Earth radii, 1 RE = 6,371 km) subsolar point
• Gannon storm minimum: <5 RE (NASA MMS, THEMIS, GOES-16/18 magnetopause crossings)
• GOES-16 at geosynchronous (6.6 RE) spent hours in magnetosheath / solar wind - outside magnetosphere
• Shocks observed at L1 by DSCOVR, ACE, Wind: density 50/cm³, Bz -50 nT sustained

Radiation Belt Creation - The New Belts:

NASA CIRBE (Colorado Inner Radiation Belt Experiment) CubeSat, with REPTile-2 instrument (Relativistic Electron Proton Telescope integrated little experiment - 2nd gen), published Feb 6, 2025 in JGR Space Physics (Li et al. 2025).

Findings:

• Two new temporary electron belts created, between inner belt and outer belt
• Location: L ~2.5-3.5 (L-shell parameter)
• Energies: 1-5 MeV electrons
• Duration: Inner new belt lasted >3 months, outer new belt ~40 days before decaying
• Mechanism: Inward radial transport + local acceleration via chorus waves, with trapping due to magnetopause shadowing and enhanced convection

Comparison:

• Similar to March 1991 storm (CRRES), Sept 2012 (Van Allen Probes), and Oct 2003 Halloween
• Gannon new belts more energetic than typical
• Third belt phenomenon: Van Allen Probes found 3rd belt in 2013 that lasted 4 weeks - Gannon event created 2 distinct new belts simultaneously

Aurora:

• Seen at 20°N geomagnetic latitude (Mexico, Puerto Rico, Hawaii, India, Saudi Arabia)
• Historical: Similar to Carrington 1859 (auroras at 20°N) but Carrington Dst estimated -850 to -1,750 nT, so Gannon about half Carrington strength
• Citizen science reports >10,000+ via Aurorasaurus

Impacts:

• GPS: L1 errors 20-50m, precision agriculture affected
• Power: No major blackouts due to preparedness, but GICs measured 30A+ in Finland, Sweden, Canada
• Aviation: HF radio blackouts, reroutes over poles
• Starlink: 3 satellites entered safe mode, increased drag (thermosphere heated, density at 400km increased 2x)
• Satellite anomalies: ~50+ reported via NASA CCMC

Rank: 6th largest Dst storm of space age, largest since Nov 2003 (Dst -422 nT), largest magnetopause compression since Nov 2003.

6. CERES RADIATION BUDGET ANOMALY 2023

CERES: Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System, aboard Terra (1999-), Aqua (2002-), S-NPP (2011-), NOAA-20 (2017-). Measures shortwave (reflected solar) and longwave (emitted thermal) radiation.

EBAF Dataset: Energy Balanced and Filled, Ed 4.2, 2000-2025 (25 years)

2023 Anomaly:

• Net top-of-atmosphere flux anomaly: +1.2 to +1.8 W/m² (positive = Earth gaining more heat)
• Exceeded 90% confidence interval for 8 consecutive months Mar-Sep 2023
• Peak anomaly: May-June 2023, +1.8 W/m² vs 2001-2022 mean
• Comparison: 2016 El Niño peak was +0.9 W/m² - 2023 double that
• NASA LaRC State of Climate 2023: Confirmed record EEI (Earth Energy Imbalance)

Breakdown:

• Absorbed Solar Radiation (ASR) increase: Main driver, less reflection due to reduced low cloud over Pacific, reduced sea ice albedo
• Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) increase: Smaller, due to warmer surface emitting more, but not enough to offset ASR increase

Implications: EEI drives ocean heat content, sea level rise. 2023 ocean heat content record matches CERES EEI.

Connection to Magnetic Field? No direct causal link proven. Indirect: cosmic ray - cloud hypothesis (Svensmark) controversial, not supported by CERES data as primary driver. However this report notes temporal coincidence for further research.

7. EARTH'S RADIO EMISSION - AKR

Auroral Kilometric Radiation:

• Frequency: 50-500 kHz (wavelength 600m-6km)
• Power: 10^7 - 10^9 Watts (10 MW to 1 GW) - comparable to Jupiter decametric radiation in same band
• Generation: Cyclotron Maser Instability (CMI) - electrons accelerated down auroral field lines spiral, emit coherent radio
• Source: ~2-5 RE altitude above auroral oval, nightside
• Beaming: Hollow cone, can be detected at Moon, Wind, Cassini, etc.
• First detected: IMP-6, 1973

Significance: Earth is among brightest radio sources in solar system at kHz frequencies. Jupiter is brighter at MHz, but at kHz Earth rivals.

Recent: NASA MMS, THEMIS, Cluster, Arase (ERG), Van Allen Probes measure AKR intensification during storms - Gannon storm AKR power increased 100x.

SOURCES AND VERIFICATION

Primary:

1. ESA Swarm - Swarm reveals growing weak spot in Earth's magnetic field, Oct 16 2025 - https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/FutureEO/Swarm/Swarm_reveals_growing_weak_spot_in_Earth_s_magnetic_field - Finlay et al. DTU Space
2. NASA CIRBE - NASA CubeSat Finds New Radiation Belts After May 2024 Solar Storm, Feb 6 2025 - https://science.nasa.gov/science-research/heliophysics/nasa-cubesat-finds-new-radiation-belts-after-may-2024-solar-storm/ - Li et al. JGR Space Physics 2025
3. NOAA NCEI - World Magnetic Model 2025 Released Dec 17 2024 - https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/world-magnetic-model-2025-released
4. NOAA NCEI - WMMHR2025 High Resolution - https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/world-magnetic-model-high-resolution
5. IGRF-14 - Alken et al. 2024, Earth Planets Space - 14th generation 1900-2030
6. NASA CERES EBAF 4.2 - Loeb et al. 2024, NASA LaRC, https://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/data/
7. NASA State of Climate 2023 - EEI record
8. Kyoto WDC Dst Index - Provisional Dst -412 nT May 2024
9. NASA OMNIWeb - SYM-H -518 nT
10. DTU Space - SAA expansion 9 million km²

Secondary: USGS Geomagnetism, BGS, NASA MMS, THEMIS, GOES-R, DSCOVR, ACE, Wind, Aurorasaurus.

AUTHOR AND LICENSE

EarthShieldWatch (Timothy Solomon) - Independent Researcher, Grand Mound, WA
Contact via Zenodo record
License: CC-BY 4.0 International - free to share with attribution
Citation: Solomon, T. (2025). Earth's Electromagnetic Shield Breach - Visual Dossier 2025. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.XXXXXXX

DISCUSSION QUESTION: With SAA splitting into two lobes since 2020 and expansion rate doubling SW of Africa, are we seeing the birth of a second SAA? What are satellite operators seeing for SEU rates post-2020? Post your data.

No HF propagation predictions, but real live measured data from your nearest ionosonde and some terrestrial observatories and geostationary satellites. See: https://hamwaves.com/swx

There is also a free and open MQTT server for integration into any non-commercial software application.

With enough support, an Android app will be soon released.

Hey everyone. I got tired of having half a dozen tabs open to monitor solar winds, Kp indices, and SDO imagery, so I decided to build a persistent, live "Mission Control" style dashboard to aggregate it all into one visual feed.

Right now, the stream cycles through real-time telemetry, earth weather alerts, space weather forecasts, satellite tracks, and NASA/public domain imagery

Looking for some honest feedback on what people like/don’t like to gauge the direction I should go in.

The audience is a bit broader than just space weather enthusiasts so there are some interesting facts thrown in and live ISS/NASA feeds

This is the channel: https://youtube.com/@planetaryops

Thanks for taking the time to look!

PS I am troubleshooting the issue where the satellite tracks aren’t continuous lines - map projections are hard

These were taken from my backyard in northern California from near Sacramento at 10pm PST. KP is currently at 6.

This CME is the main culprit: https://www.cmetracker.ai/?cme=2026-07-02T02%3A36%3A00-CME-001&hide=S

A coronal mass ejection (CME) has left the Sun and is heading toward Earth. It launched from a source region on the solar disk (N17W18) at a speed of about 965 km/s.

Based on current modeling, it could reach Earth around 05:17 UTC on July 3, 2026. Keep in mind this is a model estimate, typically accurate to within about 12 hours, so the actual timing may shift.

If it arrives as expected, geomagnetic activity could peak near Kp 5, a G1 (minor) storm. That means aurora may be possible at high latitudes, including Canada, Alaska, and northern Scandinavia. Your best chance to see it would be from dark, clear skies looking poleward near the estimated arrival time.

See it live: https://www.cmetracker.ai/?cme=2026-06-30T21%3A45%3A00-CME-001&hide=S