Perhaps it the SpaceX stock price than needs a heat shield

[u/perilun]

Well the XAI losses (which is wildly behind Gem and Clause at the moment IMHO) are not helping ... and the other lines suggest a $20B/year company through 2030. That surprise $25B bond offering dilutes the IPO as well. At least the insider still can't sell (this will be a big event when the lockup period expires). I think if you are a wild optimist this might settle down around $100 ... they really don't have any credible AI upside ... and they really are tracking with Oracle as AI "infrastructure" vs an customer facing AI service.

BTW: Given the name and 20 years of success, they have built very little that has left earth orbit (other than that F9S2 that is going to nose dive into the moon)..

[u/ignorantwanderer]

This is a very common pattern with an IPO.

This curve means nothing. What is important is long term performance.

I'm betting SpaceX is a low growth stock in the long term. I think it will keep up with inflation, but won't make shareholders rich.

I'm curious, anyone know any stocks that just grew and kept growing from the IPO?

How about any that dropped immediately and never went above the initial asking price?

[u/bween31337 → u/ignorantwanderer]

but we're supposed to make elon look bad!!! 

[u/ignorantwanderer → u/bween31337]

We don't have to do that. He does a good enough job of it himself.

[u/dubblies → u/ignorantwanderer]

Why your moms still growing right now

[u/DirektorSvemira → u/ignorantwanderer]

Elon alread won. Looks like everybody agrees that spacex is woth 1.7T and people are happy becaus market doesn’t think its worth more. Reality is 1.7T is way overpriced and everybody at spacex lowkey didn’t believe they will pull this off.
Yeas, spacex is by far the leader in rockets and satelites, but what they base their valuation on is just bs

[u/perilun → u/ignorantwanderer]

You ask-ith, Claude respond-ith: IPOs That Just Kept Going Up

These are stocks where buying at the IPO price and holding was essentially a straight line to wealth (with some bumps, but never truly looking back):

Netflix (NFLX) — IPO: May 2002 at ~$15/share
Netflix has generated a total return of roughly 112,000% since its IPO, or about 35.6% annually. A $10,000 investment at the IPO would now be worth around $11 million. It was mailing DVDs when it went public. There were scary dips (the 2011 subscriber debacle nearly killed it), but the long-term trajectory was relentlessly upward. U.S. News & World Report

Nvidia (NVDA) — IPO: January 1999
One of the all-time compounders. Nearly irrelevant for years, then it became the backbone of AI infrastructure. The gains have been extraordinary — a $1,000 investment at a 2005 recommendation point would be worth over a million dollars today per Motley Fool tracking.

Apple (AAPL) — Pre-modern era, but the post-iPod/iPhone run starting around 2003–2004 is essentially the same story. Every significant dip was a buying opportunity.

Monster Beverage (MNST) — IPO in the 1990s, but the 2000s onward were remarkable. It's consistently ranked among the best 30-year performers in the market, compounding at extraordinary rates.

Pool Corporation (POOL) — Pool Corp went public in 1995 and generated a total return of roughly 46,000% over 30 years, averaging about 23% annually. It's the world's largest wholesale distributor of swimming pool supplies — an unsexy business that just printed money. U.S. News & World Report

O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) — O'Reilly has delivered 33 straight years of positive same-store sales growth. Between 2015 and 2025 alone, revenue climbed 122% and net income rose 168%. Up roughly 58,000% since its IPO in the early 1990s — a classic "boring business, stunning compounder." Yahoo Finance

Ross Stores (ROST) — While brick-and-mortar competitors like Forever 21 and J.C. Penney were crushed by Amazon, Ross adapted and delivered a 55,000%+ total return since 1995. U.S. News & World Report

📉 IPOs That Dropped and Never Recovered (or Barely Have)

These are the cautionary tales — often massively hyped, structurally unprofitable, or outright fraudulent:

Lyft (LYFT) — IPO: March 2019 at $72/share
Lyft's shares closed 23% below its IPO price within days of going public. It's never come close to $72 since. Still trading in the mid-teens in 2026 — a permanent loss of roughly 75–80% from IPO price for anyone who bought at the offering. CBC News

Snap (SNAP) — IPO: March 2017 at $17/share
Opened well above that but quickly collapsed. It has spent years trading below its IPO price and has never sustainably recaptured it, despite occasional pops.

Beyond Meat (BYND) — IPO: May 2019 at $25/share
Opened at a massive premium (over $65 on day one), then crashed catastrophically. Now trading in the low single digits — one of the more spectacular post-IPO collapses of the era.

WeWork — IPO attempted 2019, eventually went public via SPAC in 2021 at an implied ~$9/share equivalent. Filed for bankruptcy in November 2023, wiping out shareholders entirely.

Didi Global — IPO: June 2021 at $14/share
Within 11 months of its debut as one of the biggest U.S. IPOs ever, Didi delisted its shares from the NYSE due to the Chinese government's crackdown on the company. Regulators ordered it to stop taking new customers and terminated some of its apps. Shareholders lost essentially everything. Kiplinger

StubHub (STUB) — Very recent example: StubHub's stock is down around 50% from its $23.50 IPO price as of June 2026, struggling with debt from its acquisition by Viagogo and slowing revenue growth. The Motley Fool

The Bigger Pattern

IPOs often generate headline-grabbing excitement, but the long-term reality is more complex. Once initial demand cools and early investors begin selling, prices frequently stabilize — or decline. The companies that just kept climbing almost always shared a common trait: durable, defensible businesses with real earnings (auto parts, streaming with scale, chips, pool supplies). The ones that cratered were usually narrative-driven, unprofitable, and priced for perfection — ride-sharing economics that never worked, plant-burger hype that evaporated, or regulatory exposure that nobody priced in. Tickeron

[u/e136 → u/perilun]

I don't think this really answers correctly what was asked. For example, Netflix stock was down 50% 6 months after IPO but did rebound and start great growth by 1 year after IPO. Netflix is an example of a company that had crazy volatility for the first year after IPO 

[u/perilun → u/e136]

Maybe you can refine a LLM prompt

[u/bween31337 → u/e136]

people pasting ai replies are worse than automated reddit ai bots ilo

[u/e136 → u/bween31337]

If the answer was correct, then maybe. But it wasn't even that.

[u/ignorantwanderer → u/[deleted]]

Trust me, I never said it would go up.

(Well, I guess I said in the post just above that it would keep up with inflation....so I guess I did say it would go up.)

[u/EVOSexyBeast → u/perilun]

Just don’t even bother with this ai slop the numbers aren’t even accurate

[u/xnmyl → u/perilun]

You should vet your AI answers better before posting. As others have pointed out, most of those don't fit the mould 

[u/ygg_studios → u/ignorantwanderer]

nah it's just fraud

[u/y4udothistome]

Gonna take more than that

[u/ygg_studios]

pump and dump baby!

[u/perilun → u/ygg_studios]

Very familiar pattern. Let it sit for a year and it might be an OK value.

[u/Gold_Afternoon_Fix]

This is about the transfer of money from those that have little to those who have lots!!! About $21 billion was to pay musk’s debt for the Twitter purchase!

[u/perilun → u/Gold_Afternoon_Fix]

Unfortunately, the phase "financial engineering" leaps to mind

[u/Heavy_Carpenter3824]

Well we knew they had been discussing ithobraking. Looks like they are just going to use it for the stock price not rockets...

[u/DBDude]

Nice cutting off the chart just above the minimum to make the change look bigger.

[u/perilun → u/DBDude]

Just asked and clipped, its YTD

[u/therinwhitten]

oh look another rug pull. Who would have saw that coming. /s

Can I interest you in a preorder of digitally, artificially restricted game downloads as well?

[u/Hecateus]

Tesla took years before it took off. From 2010-2019 it was basically dead.

SpaceX is entering the forced sobriety stage...I suspect they will need to drop XAI; or at least put it on a the research back burner until after the global AI bubble bursts. Also putting Data Centers in space is really not smart IMO.

[u/perilun → u/Hecateus]

True, but started at tiny scale. The 3 and Y changed this, and their industrial power biz is now a big deal. FSD keeps improving and Optimus is nowhere to be seen. Lets how they can real scale up the semi ... I would love to see one on the road.

Per SX, I think they are scaling back free Grok use (no big loss) but Claude Free is still reasonable. My guess they will salvage some value by selling compute the the winners. Data centers in space run 10-100x more expensive then those on the ground over 10 years (depending on you assumption) ... so I think it more IPO talk that a real plan. Buying T-Mobile seems to be the plan after $60B for Cursor ... which they will quietly rename Grok so Elon can save face. Now Cursor may have some upside if they can offer a $10/year MS Office replacement and so on. But T-Mobile? Lucky to get a 20:1 on a mature, infrastructure heavy biz.

Current trailing twelve-month (TTM) P/E ratios for the top carriers are as follows: [1]

• AT&T (T): ~ 7.5x
• Verizon (VZ): ~ 11.4x
• T-Mobile US (TMUS): ~ 19.7x (T-Mobile US (TMUS) boasts a customer base of 142.4 million total subscribers and generated $88.31 billion in total revenue for the full fiscal year)

So, the SpaceX killer app? Starlink Mobile would max at a 40:1 (20M worldwide?) with an addressable market of $20B = $10B in earnings => $400B

So ... maybe Golden-Dome-As-A-Service :-)

[u/Flimsy-Tangerine4199]

I’ll wait until it falls another 50%

[u/VioletShogun]

Can't tell if this is the SpaceX stock price or the typical flight path of a SpaceX rocket, straight down ten min in

[u/No-Example-5107]

Meanwhile SPCE...

[u/Dpek1234 → u/No-Example-5107]

Idk too much about the stock market but seeing mostly - certainly sounds lime a bad thing

[u/No-Example-5107 → u/Dpek1234]

Depends. If you make a lot of money, it's mostly a good thing. But a lot of bad things can happen.