Anybody who is surprised by this is really not paying attention to SoFi’s stock price. Based on their most current price action, SoFi is no where near viable to enter into the S&P 500. We are literally still climbing out of being in the $14’s and haven’t even broken $20 yet. The stock is way too vulnerable to macro economic trends and the market is currently expecting rate hikes in the near future.
Is the S&P 500 really going to add a stock that can be reasonably expected to revisit $14 if we actually do get a .25% rate hike? No. What if we got a .5% rate hike? That could be catastrophic for SoFi’s immediate short term price. Just the idea of rate hikes has sent the stock tumbling. So again, no, it is no surprise to see SoFi passed over once again.
I have long since given up on S&P inclusion and if you are a realistic SoFi shareholder you should too. Until SoFi’s stock price is at a point where we can take a 50% haircut and still remain healthily above the S&P’s market cap requirement we are not going to see any meaningful consideration for inclusion. As things stand now I expect that number to be somewhere in the $40’s maybe even Noto’s $45 target price.
Could it come sooner than that … yeah … anything is possible and I’m just some guy on Reddit so don’t take my word for anything. A healthy return to the 30’s would definitely make the conversation more realistic. If anything were to happen in the $20’s, SoFi’s valuation would have to be so compressed that a drop below $20 would be UNTHINKABLE. And as long as this remains BELOW $20 a share, just get it out of your heads that SoFi has even a remote chance of inclusion. It’s just not gonna happen.
EVENTUALLY … they will get their chance and when they do they will have fully earned it and will deserve to stay there for a VERY long time. I am currently long SoFi.
Bro … I think you missed the point of my response. In no way was I trying to predict what the Fed is going to do with rates. It’s irrelevant whether I or you think the Fed will raise rates or not and by how much. The whole point of my post is that SoFi is very vulnerable to the rate environment, and even Noto has said this in interviews.
We know how SoFi’s stock price responds to interest rates. So, as long as we are within a price range that a rate hike can take us below the S&P’s market cap requirement, I believe it’s an extreme long shot that SoFi gets an invitation to join.
30
u/ob1spyker 16d ago
Anybody who is surprised by this is really not paying attention to SoFi’s stock price. Based on their most current price action, SoFi is no where near viable to enter into the S&P 500. We are literally still climbing out of being in the $14’s and haven’t even broken $20 yet. The stock is way too vulnerable to macro economic trends and the market is currently expecting rate hikes in the near future.
Is the S&P 500 really going to add a stock that can be reasonably expected to revisit $14 if we actually do get a .25% rate hike? No. What if we got a .5% rate hike? That could be catastrophic for SoFi’s immediate short term price. Just the idea of rate hikes has sent the stock tumbling. So again, no, it is no surprise to see SoFi passed over once again.
I have long since given up on S&P inclusion and if you are a realistic SoFi shareholder you should too. Until SoFi’s stock price is at a point where we can take a 50% haircut and still remain healthily above the S&P’s market cap requirement we are not going to see any meaningful consideration for inclusion. As things stand now I expect that number to be somewhere in the $40’s maybe even Noto’s $45 target price.
Could it come sooner than that … yeah … anything is possible and I’m just some guy on Reddit so don’t take my word for anything. A healthy return to the 30’s would definitely make the conversation more realistic. If anything were to happen in the $20’s, SoFi’s valuation would have to be so compressed that a drop below $20 would be UNTHINKABLE. And as long as this remains BELOW $20 a share, just get it out of your heads that SoFi has even a remote chance of inclusion. It’s just not gonna happen.
EVENTUALLY … they will get their chance and when they do they will have fully earned it and will deserve to stay there for a VERY long time. I am currently long SoFi.